Participatory Ecosystem Management Planning at Tuzla Lake (Turkey) Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

A participatory environmental management plan was prepared for Tuzla Lake, Turkey. Fuzzy cognitive mapping approach was used to obtain stakeholder views and desires. Cognitive maps were prepared with 44 stakeholders (villagers, local decisionmakers, government and non-government organization (NGO) officials). Graph theory indices, statistical methods and "What-if" simulations were used in the analysis. The most mentioned variables were livelihood, agriculture and animal husbandry. The most central variable was agriculture for local people (villagers and local decisionmakers) and education for NGO & Government officials. All the stakeholders agreed that livelihood was increased by agriculture and animal husbandry while hunting decreased birds and wildlife. Although local people focused on their livelihoods, NGO & Government officials focused on conservation of Tuzla Lake and education of local people. Stakeholders indicated that the conservation status of Tuzla Lake should be strengthened to conserve the ecosystem and biodiversity, which may be negatively impacted by agriculture and irrigation. Stakeholders mentioned salt extraction, ecotourism, and carpet weaving as alternative economic activities. Cognitive mapping provided an effective tool for the inclusion of the stakeholders' views and ensured initial participation in environmental planning and policy making.Comment: 43 pages, 4 figure

Decision support systems for large dam planning and operation in Africa

Decision support systems/ Dams/ Planning/ Operations/ Social impact/ Environmental effects

The improvement of strategic crops production via a goal programming model with novel multi-interval weights

Nowadays, the need to increase agricultural production has becomes a challenging task for most of the countries. Generally, there are many resource factors which affect the deterioration of production level, such as low water level, desertification, soil salinity, low on capital, lack of equipment, impact of export and import of crops, lack of fertilizers, pesticide, and the ineffective role of agricultural extension services which are significant in this sector. The main objective of this research is to develop fuzzy goal programming (FGP) model to improve agricultural crop production, leading to increased agricultural benefits (more tons of produce per acre) based on the minimization of the main resources (water, fertilizer and pesticide) to determine the weight in the objectives function subject to different constraints (land area, irrigation, labour, fertilizer, pesticide, equipment and seed). FGP and GP were utilized to solve multi-objective decision making problems (MODM). From the results, this research has successfully presented a new alternative method which introduced multi-interval weights in solving a multi-objective FGP and GP model problem in a fuzzy manner, in the current uncertain decision making environment for the agricultural sector. The significance of this research lies in the fact that some of the farming zones have resource limitations while others adversely impact their environment due to misuse of resources. Finally, the model was used to determine the efficiency of each farming zone over the others in terms of resource utilization

Fuzzy control system for variable rate irrigation using remote sensing

Variable rate irrigation (VRI) is the capacity to spatially vary the depth of water application in a field to handle different types of soils, crops, and other conditions. Precise management zones must be developed to efficiently apply variable rate technologies. However, there is no universal method to determine management zones. Using speed control maps for the central pivot is one option. Thus, this study aims to develop an intelligent fuzzy inference system based on precision irrigation knowledge, i.e., a system that can create prescriptive maps to control the rotation speed of the central pivot. Satellite images are used in this study because remote sensing offers quick measurements and easy access to information on crops for large irrigation areas. Based on the VRI-prescribed map created using the intelligent decisionmaking system, the pivot can increase or decrease its speed, reaching the desired depth of application in a certain irrigation zone. Therefore, considering the spatial variability in the crop has made the strategy of speed control more realistic than traditional methods for crop management. The intelligent irrigation system pointed out areas with lower leaf development, indicating that the pivot must reduce its speed, thus increasing the water layer applied to that area. The existence of well-divided zones could be observed; each zone provides a specific value for the speed that the pivot must develop for decreasing or increasing the application of the water layer to the crop area. Three quarters of the total crop area had spatial variations during water application. The set point built by the developed system pointed out zones with a decreased speed in the order of 50%. From the viewpoint of a traditional control, the relay from pivot percent timer should have been adjusted from 70% to 35% whenever the central pivot passed over that specific area. The proposed system obtained values of 37% and 47% to adjust the pivot percent timer. Therefore, it is possible to affirm that traditional control models used for central-pivot irrigators do not support the necessary precision to meet the demands of speed control determined by the developed VRI systems. Results indicate that data from the edaphoclimatic variables when well-fitted to the fuzzy logic can solve uncertainties and non-linearities of an irrigation system and establish a control model for high-precision irrigation

Food security for sub-Saharan Africa: does water scarcity limit the options?

Future food security can be achieved only by delivering substantial increases in agricultural production, but this has important implications for water availability. Water scarcity is not currently a major issue in sub-Saharan Africa, but it would be a mistake to neglect this issue. It would be a mistake also to assume that only plans for irrigated agriculture are affected. It should be recognised that a land-use decision is also a water-use decision. A plan based on improving rain-fed agriculture through adoption of measures to make better use of rainfall brings trade-offs in that there may be less runoff to satisfy the water needs of downstream users and environmental functions. Planning for future food security requires integrated analysis of land-use and water resources issues.food security, water scarcity, irrigation, agriculture, Africa, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

SELECTED PAPER ABSTRACTS, WAEA ANNUAL MEETINGS, LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA, JULY 28-31, 2002

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,