Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Investment Risk Appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another approach to modelling the market environment

Flood lamination strategy based on a three-flood-diversion-area system management

The flood lamination has for principal objective to maintain a downstream flow at a fixed lamination level. For this goal, it is necessary to proceed to the dimensioning of the river system capacity and to make sure of its management by taking into account socio-economic and environmental constraints. The use of flood diversion areas on a river has for main interest to protect inhabited downstream areas. In this paper, a flood lamination strategy aiming at deforming the wave of flood at the entrance of the zone to be protected is presented. A transportation network modeling and a flow optimization method are proposed. The flow optimization method, is based on the modeling of a Min-Cost-Max-flow problem with a linear programming formulation. The optimization algorithm used in this method is the interior-point algorithm which allows a relaxation of the solution of the problem and avoids some non feasibility cases due to the use of constraints based on real data. For a forecast horizon corresponding to the flood episode, the management method of the flood volumes is evaluated on a 2D simulator of a river equipped with a three-flood-diversion- area system. Performances show the effectiveness of the method and its ability to manage flood lamination with efficient water storage

An empirical learning-based validation procedure for simulation workflow

Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation workflow is of the most importance in a simulation system. However, the methods especially for validating simulation workflow is very limit. Many of the existing validation techniques are domain-dependent with cumbersome questionnaire design and expert scoring. Therefore, this paper present an empirical learning-based validation procedure to implement a semi-automated evaluation for simulation workflow. First, representative features of general simulation workflow and their relations with validation indices are proposed. The calculation process of workflow credibility based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then introduced. In order to make full use of the historical data and implement more efficient validation, four learning algorithms, including back propagation neural network (BPNN), extreme learning machine (ELM), evolving new-neuron (eNFN) and fast incremental gaussian mixture model (FIGMN), are introduced for constructing the empirical relation between the workflow credibility and its features. A case study on a landing-process simulation workflow is established to test the feasibility of the proposed procedure. The experimental results also provide some useful overview of the state-of-the-art learning algorithms on the credibility evaluation of simulation models

Robust Multi-Objective Sustainable Reverse Supply Chain Planning: An Application in the Steel Industry

In the design of the supply chain, the use of the returned products and their recycling in the production and consumption network is called reverse logistics. The proposed model aims to optimize the flow of materials in the supply chain network (SCN), and determine the amount and location of facilities and the planning of transportation in conditions of demand uncertainty. Thus, maximizing the total profit of operation, minimizing adverse environmental effects, and maximizing customer and supplier service levels have been considered as the main objectives. Accordingly, finding symmetry (balance) among the profit of operation, the environmental effects and customer and supplier service levels is considered in this research. To deal with the uncertainty of the model, scenario-based robust planning is employed alongside a meta-heuristic algorithm (NSGA-II) to solve the model with actual data from a case study of the steel industry in Iran. The results obtained from the model, solving and validating, compared with actual data indicated that the model could optimize the objectives seamlessly and determine the amount and location of the necessary facilities for the steel industry more appropriately.This article belongs to the Special Issue Uncertain Multi-Criteria Optimization Problem

A reusable iterative optimization software library to solve combinatorial problems with approximate reasoning

Real world combinatorial optimization problems such as scheduling are typically too complex to solve with exact methods. Additionally, the problems often have to observe vaguely specified constraints of different importance, the available data may be uncertain, and compromises between antagonistic criteria may be necessary. We present a combination of approximate reasoning based constraints and iterative optimization based heuristics that help to model and solve such problems in a framework of C++ software libraries called StarFLIP++. While initially developed to schedule continuous caster units in steel plants, we present in this paper results from reusing the library components in a shift scheduling system for the workforce of an industrial production plant.Comment: 33 pages, 9 figures; for a project overview see http://www.dbai.tuwien.ac.at/proj/StarFLIP

Complexity of fuzzy answer set programming under Łukasiewicz semantics

Fuzzy answer set programming (FASP) is a generalization of answer set programming (ASP) in which propositions are allowed to be graded. Little is known about the computational complexity of FASP and almost no techniques are available to compute the answer sets of a FASP program. In this paper, we analyze the computational complexity of FASP under Łukasiewicz semantics. In particular we show that the complexity of the main reasoning tasks is located at the first level of the polynomial hierarchy, even for disjunctive FASP programs for which reasoning is classically located at the second level. Moreover, we show a reduction from reasoning with such FASP programs to bilevel linear programming, thus opening the door to practical applications. For definite FASP programs we can show P-membership. Surprisingly, when allowing disjunctions to occur in the body of rules – a syntactic generalization which does not affect the expressivity of ASP in the classical case – the picture changes drastically. In particular, reasoning tasks are then located at the second level of the polynomial hierarchy, while for simple FASP programs, we can only show that the unique answer set can be found in pseudo-polynomial time. Moreover, the connection to an existing open problem about integer equations suggests that the problem of fully characterizing the complexity of FASP in this more general setting is not likely to have an easy solution