Resampling: an improvement of Importance Sampling in varying population size models

Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become inefficient when the population size varies in time, making likelihood-based inferences difficult in many demographic situations. In this work, we modify a previous sequential importance sampling algorithm to improve the efficiency of the likelihood estimation. Our procedure is still based on features of the model with constant size, but uses a resampling technique with a new resampling probability distribution depending on the pairwise composite likelihood. We tested our algorithm, called sequential importance sampling with resampling (SISR) on simulated data sets under different demographic cases. In most cases, we divided the computational cost by two for the same accuracy of inference, in some cases even by one hundred. This study provides the first assessment of the impact of such resampling techniques on parameter inference using sequential importance sampling, and extends the range of situations where likelihood inferences can be easily performed

A Box Regularized Particle Filter for state estimation with severely ambiguous and non-linear measurements

International audienceThe first stage in any control system is to be able to accurately estimate the system's state. However, some types of measurements are ambiguous (non-injective) in terms of state. Existing algorithms for such problems, such as Monte Carlo methods, are computationally expensive or not robust to such ambiguity. We propose the Box Regularized Particle Filter (BRPF) to resolve these problems. Based on previous works on box particle filters, we present a more generic and accurate formulation of the algorithm, with two innovations: a generalized box resampling step and a kernel smoothing method, which is shown to be optimal in terms of Mean Integrated Square Error. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the efficiency of BRPF on a severely ambiguous and non-linear estimation problem, that of Terrain Aided Navigation. BRPF is compared to the Sequential Importance Resampling Particle Filter (SIR-PF), Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC), and the original Box Particle Filter (BPF). The algorithm outperforms existing methods in terms of Root Mean Square Error (e.g., improvement up to 42% in geographical position estimation with respect to the BPF) for a large initial uncertainty. The BRPF reduces the computational load by 73% and 90% for SIR-PF and MCMC, respectively, with similar RMSE values. This work offers an accurate (in terms of RMSE) and robust (in terms of divergence rate) way to tackle state estimation from ambiguous measurements while requiring a significantly lower computational load than classic Monte Carlo and particle filtering methods.The first stage in any control system is to be able to accurately estimate the system’s state. However, some types of measurements are ambiguous (non-injective) in terms of state. Existing algorithms for such problems, such as Monte Carlo methods, are computationally expensive or not robust to such ambiguity. We propose the Box Regularized Particle Filter (BRPF) to resolve these problems.Based on previous works on box particle filters, we present a more generic and accurate formulation of the algorithm, with two innovations: a generalized box resampling step and a kernel smoothing method, which is shown to be optimal in terms of Mean Integrated Square Error.Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the efficiency of BRPF on a severely ambiguous and non-linear estimation problem, the Terrain Aided Navigation. BRPF is compared to the Sequential Importance Resampling Particle Filter (SIR-PF), the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach (MCMC), and the original Box Particle Filter (BPF). The algorithm is demonstrated to outperform existing methods in terms of Root Mean Square Error (e.g., improvement up to 42% in geographical position estimation with respect to the BPF) for a large initial uncertainty.The BRPF yields a computational load reduction of 73% with respect to the SIR-PF and of 90% with respect to MCMC for similar RMSE orders of magnitude. The present work offers an accurate (in terms of RMSE) and robust (in terms of divergence rate) way to tackle state estimation from ambiguous measurements while requiring a significantly lower computational load than classic Monte Carlo and particle filtering methods

Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Programming Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity

This paper develops a new computationally attractive procedure for estimating dynamic discrete choice models that is applicable to a wide range of dynamic programming models. The proposed procedure can accommodate unobserved state variables that (i) are neither additively separable nor follow generalized extreme value distribution, (ii) are serially correlated, and (iii) affect the choice set. Our estimation algorithm sequentially updates the parameter estimate and the value function estimate. It builds upon the idea of the iterative estimation algorithm proposed by Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002, 2007) but conducts iteration using the value function mapping rather than the policy iteration mapping. Its implementation is straightforward in terms of computer programming; unlike the Hotz-Miller type estimators, there is no need to reformulate a fixed point mapping in the value function space as that in the space of probability distributions. It is also applicable to estimate models with unobserved heterogeneity. We analyze the convergence property of our sequential algorithm and derive the conditions for its convergence. We develop an approximated procedure which reduces computational cost substantially without deteriorating the convergence rate. We further extend our sequential procedure for estimating dynamic programming models with an equilibrium constraint, which include dynamic game models and dynamic macroeconomic models.dynamic discrete choice, value function mapping, nested pseudo, likelihood, unobserved, heterogeneity, equilibrium constraint

Fast sequential source localization using the projected companion matrix approach

International audienceThe sequential forms of the spectral MUSIC algorithm, such as the Sequential MUSIC (S-MUSIC) and the Recursively Applied and Projected MUSIC (RAP-MUSIC) algorithms, use the previously estimated DOA (Direction Of Arrival) to form an intermediate array gain matrix and project both the array manifold and the signal subspace estimate into its orthogonal complement. By doing this, these methods avoid the delicate search of multiple maxima and yield a more accurate DOA estimation in difficult scenarios. However, these high-resolution algorithms adapted to a general array geometry suffer from a high computational cost. On the other hand, for linear equispaced sensor array, the root- MUSIC algorithm is a fast and accurate high-resolution scheme which also avoids the delicate search of multiple maxima but a sequential scheme based on the root-MUSIC algorithm does not exist. This paper fills this need. Thus, we present a new sequential high-resolution estimation method, called the Projected Companion Matrix MUSIC (PCM-MUSIC) method, in the context of source localisation in the case of linear equispaced sensor array. Remark that the proposed algorithm can be used without modification in the context of spectral analysis

Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids. TheSmolyak operator underlying the sparse grids approach frees global approximation from the curse of dimensionality and we apply it to a Chebyshev approximation of the model solution. The operator also eliminates the curse from Gaussian quadrature and we use it for the integrals arising from rational expectations and in three new nonlinear state space filters. The filters substantially decrease the computational burden compared to the sequential importance resampling particle filter. The posterior of the structural parameters is estimated by a new Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with mixing parallel sequences. The parallel extension improves the global maximization property of the algorithm, simplifies the choice of the innovation variances, allows for unbiased convergence diagnostics and for a simple implementation of the estimation on parallel computers. Finally, we provide all algorithms in the open source software JBendge4 for the solution and estimation of a general class of models.Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models, Bayesian Time Series Econometrics, Curse of Dimensionality

A Sequential MUSIC algorithm for Scatterers Detection 2 in SAR Tomography Enhanced by a Robust Covariance 3 Estimator

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) tomography (TomoSAR) is an appealing tool for the extraction of height information of urban infrastructures. Due to the widespread applications of the MUSIC algorithm in source localization, it is a suitable solution in TomoSAR when multiple snapshots (looks) are available. While the classical MUSIC algorithm aims to estimate the whole reflectivity profile of scatterers, sequential MUSIC algorithms are suited for the detection of sparse point-like scatterers. In this class of methods, successive cancellation is performed through orthogonal complement projections on the MUSIC power spectrum. In this work, a new sequential MUSIC algorithm named recursive covariance canceled MUSIC (RCC-MUSIC), is proposed. This method brings higher accuracy in comparison with the previous sequential methods at the cost of a negligible increase in computational cost. Furthermore, to improve the performance of RCC-MUSIC, it is combined with the recent method of covariance matrix estimation called correlation subspace. Utilizing the correlation subspace method results in a denoised covariance matrix which in turn, increases the accuracy of subspace-based methods. Several numerical examples are presented to compare the performance of the proposed method with the relevant state-of-the-art methods. As a subspace method, simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method in terms of estimation accuracy and computational load