Learning Machines Supporting Bankruptcy Prediction

In many economic applications it is desirable to make future predictions about the financial status of a company. The focus of predictions is mainly if a company will default or not. A support vector machine (SVM) is one learning method which uses historical data to establish a classification rule called a score or an SVM. Companies with scores above zero belong to one group and the rest to another group. Estimation of the probability of default (PD) values can be calculated from the scores provided by an SVM. The transformation used in this paper is a combination of weighting ranks and of smoothing the results using the PAV algorithm. The conversion is then monotone. This discussion paper is based on the Creditreform database from 1997 to 2002. The indicator variables were converted to financial ratios; it transpired out that eight of the 25 were useful for the training of the SVM. The results showed that those ratios belong to activity, profitability, liquidity and leverage. Finally, we conclude that SVMs are capable of extracting the necessary information from financial balance sheets and then to predict the future solvency or insolvent of a company. Banks in particular will benefit from these results by allowing them to be more aware of their risk when lending money.Support Vector Machine, Bankruptcy, Default Probabilities Prediction, Profitability

Efficacy of spa-therapy, mud-pack therapy, balneotherapy and mud-bath therapy in the management of knee osteoarthritis. A systematic review

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease in the world. OA is the result of an inflammatory and degenerative process affecting the entire joint. Osteoarthritis, especially involving the knee, has a relevant socio-economic impact in terms of drugs, hospital admissions, work absences and temporary or permanent invalidity. Therapy of knee osteoarthritis is based on pharmacological and non-pharmacological measures. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the studies published between 2002 and 2017 on spa-therapy, mud-pack therapy, balneotherapy and mud-bath therapy in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis in order to investigate the evidence of the efficacy of such treatment on pain, functional limitation, drug use and quality of life. Overall, 35 studies were examined among which 12 were selected and included in the review if trial comparative. Each report was reviewed to identify the criteria used for study enrolment and for assignment to experimental vs control groups, sample size, type and characteristics of treatment, features of mineral water, control intervention, assessment point, endpoints, outcome measures, tests used for statistical analysis of the results. We have been able to illustrate the main results obtained in the individual studies and to elaborate these results in order to allow as much a unitary presentation as possible, and hence an overall judgment. Results: Because the studies we reviewed differed markedly from one another in terms of the methods used, we were unable to conduct a quantitative analysis (meta-analysis) of pooled data from the 12 studies. For the purposes of the present review, we re-evaluated the results of the different studies using the same statistical method, the Student’s t test, which is used to compare the means of two frequency distributions. Among all the studies, the most relevant indexes used to measure effectiveness of spa therapy were improved including VAS, Lequesne’s and WOMAC Score. Conclusions: The mud-pack therapy, balneotherapy, mud-bath therapy and spa therapy has proved to be effective in the treatment and in the secondary prevention of knee osteoarthritis, by reducing pain, non-steroidal antiinflammatory drug consumption, functional limitation and improving quality of life of affected patients. Is a noninvasive, complication-free, and cost-effective alternative modality for the conservative treatment of knee osteoarthritis

Using a smartphone video camera to reduce anxiety in speaking activity

The common problems faced by students in English speaking are anxiety and the lack of confidence and ideas. This research was conducted to determine the relevant factors and to provide a solution by using the smartphone video camera. To obtain the data in this research, experimental research was performed inside and outside the classroom with a series of treatments and a questionnaire sheet as the instrument. The data were analyzed using a model proposed by Smeda, Dakich, and Sharda (2014) and a Likert scale questionnaire, which was adapted from Spratt, Humphreys, and Chan (2002). The result from the test showed a significant difference between the experimental and control classes as the carried t-test presented the score of -8.36, which was out of the limit (between -1.96 and 1.96). Another result was the students developed positively which was shown by: the anxiety tends to decrease as they were given time before performing thus prepared better, their self-confidence was increased and challenged by using the smartphone video camera method due to the application of innovation in the speaking class. The conclusion of this research is lecturer needs to apply new methods, one of which is using a smartphone application

Personality traits in resident and migratory warbler species.

Animals are often confronted with environmental challenges and the way in which they cope with these challenges can have important fitness consequences. There is increasing evidence that individuals differ consistently in their reaction to the environment (personality traits). However, little is known about whether different life-styles (e.g., resident or migratory) influence personality traits and if so, in what manner. We compared neophobic and exploratory behaviours, both of which play an important role in personality traits, between two closely related species, the resident Sardinian warblers and the migratory garden warblers, at two different times during the year. Neophobia was tested by placing a novel object, a mop, beside the feeding dish and measuring the latency to feed (neophobia score). Exploration was tested by offering another novel object, a tube, attached to a perch at a neutral location and measuring latency to approach and investigate the tube (exploration score). Both tests were carried out at the end of the breeding season and repeated ten months later in spring. The Sardinian warblers showed consistent behavioural reactions over time. Furthermore, neophobia and exploration scores were negatively related. The garden warblers neither behaved consistently over time nor was there a correlation between neophobia and exploration. Overall, Sardinian warblers were less neophobic and more explorative than garden warblers. The different reactivity may be due to a different frequency distribution of the individuals of the two species along a reactivity axis. It can be concluded that the Sardinian warblers have personality traits. The situation is less clear in the garden warblers. Possibly, different life-styles require different organisation of behaviours

Failure prediction models: performance, disagreements, and internal rating systems. NBB Working Papers. No. 123, 13 December 2007

We address a number of comparative issues relating to the performance of failure prediction models for small, private firms. We use two models provided by vendors, a model developed by the National Bank of Belgium, and the Altman Z-score model to investigate model power, the extent of disagreement between models in the ranking of firms, and the design of internal rating systems. We also examine the potential gains from combining the output of multiple models. We find that the power of all four models in predicting bankruptcies is very good at the one-year horizon, even though not all of the models were developed using bankruptcy data and the models use different statistical methodologies. Disagreements in firm rankings are nevertheless significant across models, and model choice will have an impact on loan pricing and origination decisions. We find that it is possible to realize important gains from combining models with similar power. In addition, we show that it can also be beneficial to combine a weaker model with a stronger one if disagreements across models with respect to failing firms are high enough. Finally, the number of classes in an internal rating system appears to be more important than the distribution of borrowers across classes

Performance Persistence of Dutch Pension Funds

This paper studies the investment performance of pension funds with a focus on their ability in implementing their intended investment strategy. We use a sample of Dutch industry-wide pension funds, which are obliged by law to report their investment performance according to the so-called z-score. The z-score is a risk-adjusted performance measure with benchmark settings predefined by Dutch law. We find that pension funds as a group cannot beat their self-selected benchmarks consistently. Applying a cross-sectional portfolio approach we find evidence that the largest pension funds outperform the smallest funds

What makes a 'good group'? Exploring the characteristics and performance of undergraduate student groups

Group work forms the foundation for much of student learning within higher education, and has many educational, social and professional benefits. This study aimed to explore the determinants of success or failure for undergraduate student teams and to define a ‘good group’ through considering three aspects of group success: the task, the individuals, and the team. We employed a mixed methodology, combining demographic data with qualitative observations and task and peer evaluation scores. We determined associations between group dynamic and behaviour, demographic composition, member personalities and attitudes towards one another, and task success. We also employed a cluster analysis to create a model outlining the attributes of a good small group learning team in veterinary education. This model highlights that student groups differ in measures of their effectiveness as teams, independent of their task performance. On the basis of this, we suggest that groups who achieve high marks in tasks cannot be assumed to have acquired team working skills, and therefore if these are important as a learning outcome, they must be assessed directly alongside the task output

Conservative management for postprostatectomy urinary incontinence

BACKGROUND: Urinary incontinence is common after radical prostatectomy and can also occur in some circumstances after transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). Conservative management includes pelvic floor muscle training with or without biofeedback, electrical stimulation, extra-corporeal magnetic innervation (ExMI), compression devices (penile clamps), lifestyle changes, or a combination of methods.   OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of conservative management for urinary incontinence up to 12 months after transurethral, suprapubic, laparoscopic, radical retropubic or perineal prostatectomy, including any single conservative therapy or any combination of conservative therapies.  SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Incontinence Group Specialised Register (5 February 2014), CENTRAL (2014, Issue 1), EMBASE (January 2010 to Week 3 2014), CINAHL (January 1982 to 18 January 2014), ClinicalTrials.gov and World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (both searched 29 January 2014), and the reference lists of relevant articles.  SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials evaluating conservative interventions for urinary continence in men after prostatectomy.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two or more review authors assessed the methodological quality of the trials and abstracted data. We tried to contact several authors of included studies to obtain extra information.  MAIN RESULTS: Fifty trials met the inclusion criteria, 45 in men after radical prostatectomy, four trials after TURP and one trial after either operation. The trials included 4717 men of whom 2736 had an active conservative intervention. There was considerable variation in the interventions, populations and outcome measures. Data were not available for many of the pre-stated outcomes. Men's symptoms improved over time irrespective of management.There was no evidence from eight trials that pelvic floor muscle training with or without biofeedback was better than control for men who had urinary incontinence up to 12 months after radical prostatectomy; the quality of the evidence was judged to be moderate (for example 57% with urinary incontinence in the intervention group versus 62% in the control group, risk ratio (RR) for incontinence after 12 months 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60 to 1.22). One large multi-centre trial of one-to-one therapy showed no difference in any urinary or quality of life outcome measures and had narrow CIs. It seems unlikely that men benefit from one-to-one PFMT therapy after TURP. Individual small trials provided data to suggest that electrical stimulation, external magnetic innervation, or combinations of treatments might be beneficial but the evidence was limited. Amongst trials of conservative treatment for all men after radical prostatectomy, aimed at both treatment and prevention, there was moderate evidence of an overall benefit from pelvic floor muscle training versus control management in terms of reduction of urinary incontinence (for example 10% with urinary incontinence after one year in the intervention groups versus 32% in the control groups, RR for urinary incontinence 0.32, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.51). However, this finding was not supported by other data from pad tests. The findings should be treated with caution because the risk of bias assessment showed methodological limitations. Men in one trial were more satisfied with one type of external compression device, which had the lowest urine loss, compared to two others or no treatment. The effect of other conservative interventions such as lifestyle changes remained undetermined as no trials involving these interventions were identified.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The value of the various approaches to conservative management of postprostatectomy incontinence after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. The evidence is conflicting and therefore rigorous, adequately powered randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which abide by the principles and recommendations of the CONSORT statement are still needed to obtain a definitive answer. The trials should be robustly designed to answer specific well constructed research questions and include outcomes which are important from the patient's perspective in decision making and are also relevant to the healthcare professionals. Long-term incontinence may be managed by an external penile clamp, but there are safety problems

Matching Methods for Causal Inference: A Review and a Look Forward

When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be achieved by choosing well-matched samples of the original treated and control groups, thereby reducing bias due to the covariates. Since the 1970s, work on matching methods has examined how to best choose treated and control subjects for comparison. Matching methods are gaining popularity in fields such as economics, epidemiology, medicine and political science. However, until now the literature and related advice has been scattered across disciplines. Researchers who are interested in using matching methods---or developing methods related to matching---do not have a single place to turn to learn about past and current research. This paper provides a structure for thinking about matching methods and guidance on their use, coalescing the existing research (both old and new) and providing a summary of where the literature on matching methods is now and where it should be headed.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS313 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Lattice score based data cleaning for phrase-based statistical machine translation

Statistical machine translation relies heavily on parallel corpora to train its models for translation tasks. While more and more bilingual corpora are readily available, the quality of the sentence pairs should be taken into consideration. This paper presents a novel lattice score-based data cleaning method to select proper sentence pairs from the ones extracted from a bilingual corpus by the sentence alignment methods. The proposed method is carried out as follows: firstly, an initial phrasebased model is trained on the full sentencealigned corpus; then for each of the sentence pairs in the corpus, word alignments are used to create anchor pairs and sourceside lattices; thirdly, based on the translation model, target-side phrase networks are expanded on the lattices and Viterbi searching is used to find approximated decoding results; finally, BLEU score thresholds are used to filter out the low-score sentence pairs for the data cleaning purpose. Our experiments on the FBIS corpus showed improvements of BLEU score from 23.78 to 24.02 in Chinese-English