The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy

The Iranian economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and major macroeconomic variables in Iran by applying a VAR approach. The study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks; for instance, positive as well as negative oil price shocks significantly increase inflation. We find a strong positive relationship between positive oil price changes and industrial output growth. Unexpectedly, we can only identify a marginal impact of oil price fluctuations on real government expenditures. Furthermore, we observe the Dutch Disease syndrome through significant real effective exchange rate appreciation. --macroeconomic uctuations,oil price shocks,developing economies,Iran,VAR modelling

Providing Remote Access to Robotic Telescopes by Adopting Grid Technology

We present an architecture for enabling remote access to robotic telescopes through the adoption of Grid technology. With this architecture, Internet connected robotic telescopes form a global network and are controlled by a global resource management system (scheduler), similar to individual compute resources in a Grid. By virtualizing the access to these telescope resources and by describing them and observation requests in a generic language (RTML). Astronomers are provided with an interface to a telescope network, from which they can get the appropriate resources for their observations. Moreover, new kinds of coordinated observations become feasible, such as multi-wavelength campaigns or immediate and continuous monitoring of transient astronomical events. This paper describes the architecture, the processing of observation requests and new research topics in a global network of robotic telescopes

Urban Regeneration – Strategies of Shrinking Cities in Eastern Germany

This contribution is meant to contrast the often negative images and scenarios of demographic change in eastern German cities by a more differentiated picture, by discussing regeneration processes running parallel – and sometimes even opposite – to shrinking. In this context, the regeneration of cities is understood as a complex process including demographic, socio-economic and physical dimensions. In the first part of the article the term will be discussed and some conceptional aspects will be presented. The second part will present evidence for a differentiated development of mediumsized towns. In the third part, we will present the hypothesis that strategies of urban development influence regeneration processes. This hypothesis will be evaluated by the examples of three cities with different regeneration approaches: Brandenburg an der Havel, Görlitz and Greifswald. Finally we will draw some general conclusions on urban development policy in eastern Germany

The treasure of Środa as a source for research on medieval symbols and migrations

Analysis of the symbolism of engagements, wedding ceremonies and wedding celebrations does not allow us to strictly define the symbols associated with these occasions. It is also difficult to determine the variation in symbolism in time and space. Nevertheless, a list of certain symbols has been established: the hand-in-hand gesture, the ring and the garland. This last seems to be particularly important during the wedding feast. The crown and the garland are, first of all, specifically bridal headgear; the crown is also worn during the wedding ceremony but is not a symbol of the ceremony. In the Kingdom of Poland, and perhaps also in other areas, if a coronation and wedding took place simultaneously, a garland was marked on the bride’s crown. Meanwhile, an eagle on the crown or on other dress accessories probably only elevated the status of these artefacts and cannot be heraldic. Archaeological discoveries also allow to state that diadems with eagles holding rings in their beaks – like a specimen from Środa Śląska – were also made of tin-lead alloys.Despite the incredible abundance of silver treasures in the early Middle Ages on Polish lands, which largely resulted from the migration of Scandinavians, it is hard to talk about the emergence of new financial market instruments at that time, although some effects are visible in the commercial culture. Only in the late Middle Ages, thanks to the German, Teutonic and Hansa colonisation, and the migration of Jews, credit appears, the material effect of which is bond hoards, and in the 15th century, commercial paper – a modern financial market tool. All this evidences that medieval hoards are also a source of research on migration.Analysis of the symbolism of engagements, wedding ceremonies and wedding celebrations does not allow us to strictly define the symbols associated with these occasions. It is also difficult to determine the variation in symbolism in time and space. Nevertheless, a list of certain symbols has been established: the hand-in-hand gesture, the ring and the garland. This last seems to be particularly important during the wedding feast. The crown and the garland are, first of all, specifically bridal headgear; the crown is also worn during the wedding ceremony but is not a symbol of the ceremony. In the Kingdom of Poland, and perhaps also in other areas, if a coronation and wedding took place simultaneously, a garland was marked on the bride’s crown. Meanwhile, an eagle on the crown or on other dress accessories probably only elevated the status of these artefacts and cannot be heraldic. Archaeological discoveries also allow to state that diadems with eagles holding rings in their beaks – like a specimen from Środa Śląska – were also made of tin-lead alloys.Despite the incredible abundance of silver treasures in the early Middle Ages on Polish lands, which largely resulted from the migration of Scandinavians, it is hard to talk about the emergence of new financial market instruments at that time, although some effects are visible in the commercial culture. Only in the late Middle Ages, thanks to the German, Teutonic and Hansa colonisation, and the migration of Jews, credit appears, the material effect of which is bond hoards, and in the 15th century, commercial paper – a modern financial market tool. All this evidences that medieval hoards are also a source of research on migration

Annual report 2009 // Institute of Radiochemistry

[no abstract available

The OpenModelica integrated environment for modeling, simulation, and model-based development

OpenModelica is a unique large-scale integrated open-source Modelica- and FMI-based modeling, simulation, optimization, model-based analysis and development environment. Moreover, the OpenModelica environment provides a number of facilities such as debugging; optimization; visualization and 3D animation; web-based model editing and simulation; scripting from Modelica, Python, Julia, and Matlab; efficient simulation and co-simulation of FMI-based models; compilation for embedded systems; Modelica- UML integration; requirement verification; and generation of parallel code for multi-core architectures. The environment is based on the equation-based object-oriented Modelica language and currently uses the MetaModelica extended version of Modelica for its model compiler implementation. This overview paper gives an up-to-date description of the capabilities of the system, short overviews of used open source symbolic and numeric algorithms with pointers to published literature, tool integration aspects, some lessons learned, and the main vision behind its development.Fil: Fritzson, Peter. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Pop, Adrian. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Abdelhak, Karim. Fachhochschule Bielefeld; AlemaniaFil: Asghar, Adeel. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Bachmann, Bernhard. Fachhochschule Bielefeld; AlemaniaFil: Braun, Willi. Fachhochschule Bielefeld; AlemaniaFil: Bouskela, Daniel. Electricité de France; FranciaFil: Braun, Robert. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Buffoni, Lena. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Casella, Francesco. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Castro, Rodrigo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Investigación en Ciencias de la Computación. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigación en Ciencias de la Computación; ArgentinaFil: Franke, Rüdiger. Abb Group; AlemaniaFil: Fritzson, Dag. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Gebremedhin, Mahder. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Heuermann, Andreas. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Lie, Bernt. University of South-Eastern Norway; NoruegaFil: Mengist, Alachew. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Mikelsons, Lars. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Moudgalya, Kannan. Indian Institute Of Technology Bombay; IndiaFil: Ochel, Lennart. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Palanisamy, Arunkumar. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Ruge, Vitalij. Fachhochschule Bielefeld; AlemaniaFil: Schamai, Wladimir. Danfoss Power Solutions GmbH & Co; AlemaniaFil: Sjolund, Martin. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Thiele, Bernhard. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Tinnerholm, John. Linköping University; SueciaFil: Ostlund, Per. Linköping University; Sueci

Holocene forest and land-use history of the Erzgebirge, central Europe: a review of palynological data

The ongoing ecological conversion of mountain forests in central Europe from widespread Picea monocultures to mixed stands conceptually also requires a historical perspective on the very long-term, i.e. Holocene, vegetation and land-use dynamics. Detailed sources of information for this are palynological data. The Erzgebirge in focus here, with a maximum height of 1244 m a.s.l., represents an extreme case of extensive historical deforestation since the Middle Ages due to mining, metallurgy, and other industrial activities, as well as rural and urban colonisation. For this regional review we collected and evaluated 121 pollen diagrams of different stratigraphic, taxonomic, and chronological resolution. This number makes this region an upland area in central Europe with an exceptionally high density of palynological data. Using well-dated diagrams going back to the early Holocene, main regional vegetation phases were derived: the Betula–Pinus phase (ca. 11 600–10 200 cal yr BP), the Corylus phase (ca. 10 200–9000 cal yr BP), the Picea phase (ca. 9000–6000 cal yr BP), the Fagus–Picea phase (ca. 6000–4500 cal yr BP), the Abies–Fagus–Picea phase (ca. 4000–1000 cal yr BP), and the anthropogenic vegetation phase (ca. 1000–0 cal yr BP). Some diagrams show the presence or even continuous curves of potential pasture and meadow indicators from around 2000 cal BCE at the earliest. Even cereal pollen grains occur sporadically already before the High Medieval. These palynological indications of a local prehistoric human impact also in the higher altitudes find parallels in the (geo-)archaeologically proven Bronze Age tin placer mining and in the geochemically proven Iron Age metallurgy in the Erzgebirge. The pollen data show that immediately before the medieval clearing, i.e. beginning at the end of the 12th century CE, forests were mainly dominated by Fagus and Abies and complemented by Picea with increasing share towards the highest altitudes. According to historical data, the minimum of the regional forest cover was reached during the 17th–18th centuries CE. The dominance of Picea in modern pollen spectra is caused by anthropogenic afforestation in the form of monocultures since that time. Future palynological investigations, preferably within the framework of altitudinal transect studies, should aim for chronologically and taxonomically high-resolution and radiometrically well-dated pollen diagrams from the larger peatlands.</p

4th International Probabilistic Workshop: 12th-13th October 2006, Berlin, BAM (Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing)

Die heutige Welt der Menschen wird durch große Dynamik geprägt. Eine Vielzahl verschiedener Prozesse entfaltet sich parallel und teilweise auf unsichtbare Weise miteinander verbunden. Nimmt man z.B. den Prozess der Globalisierung: Hier erleben wir ein exponentielles Wachstum der internationalen Verknüpfungen von der Ebene einzelner Menschen und bis zur Ebene der Kulturen. Solche Verknüpfungen führen uns zum Begriff der Komplexität. Diese wird oft als Produkt der Anzahl der Elemente eines Systems mal Umfang der Verknüpfungen im System verstanden. In anderen Worten, die Welt wird zunehmend komplexer, denn die Verknüpfungen nehmen zu. Komplexität wiederum ist ein Begriff für etwas unverstandenes, unkontrollierbares, etwas unbestimmtes. Genau wie bei einem Menschen: Aus einer Zelle wächst ein Mensch, dessen Verhalten wir im Detail nur schwer vorhersagen können. Immerhin besitzt sein Gehirn 1011 Elemente (Zellen). Wenn also diese dynamischen sozialen Prozesse zu höherer Komplexität führen, müssen wir auch mehr Unbestimmtheit erwarten. Es bleibt zu Hoffen, dass die Unbestimmtheit nicht existenzielle Grundlagen betrifft. Was die Komplexität der Technik angeht, so versucht man hier im Gegensatz zu den gesellschaftlichen Unsicherheiten die Unsicherheiten zu erfassen und gezielt mit ihnen umzugehen. Das gilt für alle Bereiche, ob nun Naturgefahrenmanagement, beim Bau und Betrieb von Kernkraftwerken, im Bauwesen oder in der Schifffahrt. Und so verschieden diese Fachgebiete auch scheinen mögen, die an diesem Symposium teilnehmen: Sie haben erkannt, das verantwortungsvoller Umgang mit Technik einer Berücksichtigung der Unbestimmtheit bedarf. Soweit sind wir in gesellschaftlichen Prozessen noch nicht. Wünschenswert wäre, dass in einigen Jahren nicht nur Bauingenieure, Maschinenbauer, Mathematiker oder Schiffsbauer an einem solchen Probabilistik- Symposium teilnehmen, sondern auch Soziologen, Politiker oder Manager... (aus dem Vorwort) --- HINWEIS: Das Volltextdokument besteht aus einzelnen Beiträgen mit separater Seitenzählung.PREFACE: The world today is shaped by high dynamics. Multitude of processes evolves parallel and partly connected invisible. For example, the globalisation is such a process. Here one can observe the exponential growing of connections form the level of single humans to the level of cultures. Such connections guide as to the term complexity. Complexity is often understood as product of the number of elements and the amount of connections in the system. In other words, the world is going more complex, if the connections increase. Complexity itself is a term for a system, which is not fully understood, which is partly uncontrollable and indeterminated: exactly as humans. Growing from a single cell, the humans will show latter a behaviour, which we can not predict in detail. After all, the human brain consists of 1011 elements (cells). If the social dynamical processes yield to more complexity, we have to accept more indetermination. Well, one has to hope, that such an indetermination does not affect the basic of human existence. If we look at the field of technology, we can detect, that here indetermination or uncertainty is often be dealt with explicitly. This is valid for natural risk management, for nuclear engineering, civil engineering or for the design of ships. And so different the fields are which contribute to this symposium for all is valid: People working in this field have realised, that a responsible usage of technology requires consideration of indetermination and uncertainty. This level is not yet reached in the social sciences. It is the wish of the organisers of this symposium, that not only civil engineers, mechanical engineers, mathematicians, ship builders take part in this symposium, but also sociologists, managers and even politicians. Therefore there is still a great opportunity to grow for this symposium. Indetermination does not have to be negative: it can also be seen as chance

The Interactive European Grid: Project Objectives and Achievements

The Interactive European Grid (i2g) project has set up an advanced e-Infrastructure in the European Research Area specifically oriented to support the friendly execution of demanding interactive applications. While interoperable with existing large e-Infrastructures like EGEE, i2g software supports execution of parallel applications in interactive mode including powerful visualization and application steering. This article describes the strategy followed, the key technical achievements, examples of applications that benefit from this infrastructure and the sustainable model proposed for the future