A Theory of Factfinding: The Logic for Processing Evidence

Academics have never agreed on a theory of proof. The darkest corner of anyone’s theory has concerned how legal decisionmakers logically should find facts. This Article pries open that cognitive black box. It does so by employing multivalent logic, which enables it to overcome the traditional probability problems that impeded all prior attempts. The result is the first-ever exposure of the proper logic for finding a fact or a case’s facts. The focus will be on the evidential processing phase, rather than the application of the standard of proof as tracked in my prior work. Processing evidence involves (1) reasoning inferentially from a piece of evidence to a degree of belief and of disbelief in the element to be proved, (2) aggregating pieces of evidence that all bear to some degree on one element in order to form a composite degree of belief and of disbelief in the element, and (3) considering the series of elemental beliefs and disbeliefs to reach a decision. Zeroing in, the factfinder in step #1 should connect each item of evidence to an element to be proved by constructing a chain of inferences, employing multivalent logic’s usual rules for conjunction and disjunction to form a belief function that reflects the belief and the disbelief in the element and also the uncommitted belief reflecting uncertainty. The factfinder in step #2 should aggregate, by weighted arithmetic averaging, the belief functions resulting from all the items of evidence that bear on any one element, creating a composite belief function for the element. The factfinder in step #3 does not need to combine elements, but instead should directly move to testing whether the degree of belief from each element’s composite belief function sufficiently exceeds the corresponding degree of disbelief. In sum, the factfinder should construct a chain of inferences to produce a belief function for each item of evidence bearing on an element, and then average them to produce for each element a composite belief function ready for the element-by-element standard of proof. This Article performs the task of mapping normatively how to reason from legal evidence to a decision on facts. More significantly, it constitutes a further demonstration of how embedded the multivalent-belief model is in our law

Stakeholder perceptions in organizational crisis management: exploring alternative configurations

[EN] Crises are socially constructed. Affected stakeholders of an organizational crisis conceive complex associations between their perceptions of the implicated company's response and about the company itself. The study moves away from a simple cause-effect view by deriving alternative configurations of these associations. This approach allows for a better understanding of how stakeholders attribute responsibility for a critical event and the resulting crisis faced by the company that caused it. Using partial least squares structural equation modeling and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, we analyze insights of 325 families affected by an environmental incident in 2018 involving Colombia's largest company. We establish a correlation between stakeholders' perceptions of crisis response timeliness and credibility. Accordingly, we expand on how perceptions affect organizational judgments. Finally, we propose that trustworthiness and reputation are antecedents to how organizational crisis response is perceived and how these antecedents affect the degree of the severity of the company crisis.Contreras-Pacheco, OE.; Claasen, C.; Garrigós Simón, FJ. (2022). Stakeholder perceptions in organizational crisis management: exploring alternative configurations. Journal of Management & Organization. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1017/jmo.2022.5512

Ordering based decision making: a survey

Decision making is the crucial step in many real applications such as organization management, financial planning, products evaluation and recommendation. Rational decision making is to select an alternative from a set of different ones which has the best utility (i.e., maximally satisfies given criteria, objectives, or preferences). In many cases, decision making is to order alternatives and select one or a few among the top of the ranking. Orderings provide a natural and effective way for representing indeterminate situations which are pervasive in commonsense reasoning. Ordering based decision making is then to find the suitable method for evaluating candidates or ranking alternatives based on provided ordinal information and criteria, and this in many cases is to rank alternatives based on qualitative ordering information. In this paper, we discuss the importance and research aspects of ordering based decision making, and review the existing ordering based decision making theories and methods along with some future research directions

Using Fuzzy Sentiment Computing and Inference Method to Study Consumer Online Reviews

As a new type of word-of-mouth information, online consumer reviews possess critical information regarding consumer‘s concerns and their experience with the product or service. Such information is considered essential to firms‘ business intelligence which can be utilized for the purpose of production recommendation, personalization, and better customer understanding. This paper considers the problem of online reviews sentiment mining based on the theory of consumer psychology and behavior. Given the fuzzy attribute nature of the online reviews, we have established fuzzy group bases of consumer psychology. Four fuzzy bases, including features, sense, mood and evaluation, are established. The consumer attitude elements are reflected by natural language reviews. A fuzzy sentiment computing algorithm of online reviews for consumer sentiment is developed, and a fuzzy rule base is also presented based on consumer decision-making process. Finally it shows by means of an experiment that the proposed approach is very well suited as an analysis tool for the online reviews sentiment mining problem

The Common-Core/Diversity Dilemma: Revisions of Humean thought, New Empirical Research, and the Limits of Rational Religious Belief

This paper is the product of an interdisciplinary, interreligious dialogue aiming to outline some of the possibilities and rational limits of supernatural religious belief, in the light of a critique of David Hume’s familiar sceptical arguments -- including a rejection of his famous Maxim on miracles -- combined with a range of striking recent empirical research. The Humean nexus leads us to the formulation of a new ”Common-Core/Diversity Dilemma’, which suggests that the contradictions between different religious belief systems, in conjunction with new understandings of the cognitive forces that shape their common features, persuasively challenge the rationality of most kinds of supernatural belief. In support of this conclusion, we survey empirical research concerning intercessory prayer, religious experience, near-death experience, and various cognitive biases. But we then go on to consider evidence that supernaturalism -- even when rationally unwarranted -- has significant beneficial individual and social effects, despite others that are far less desirable. This prompts the formulation of a ”Normal/Objective Dilemma’, identifying important trade-offs to be found in the choice between our humanly evolved ”normal’ outlook on the world, and one that is more rational and ”objective’. Can we retain the pragmatic benefits of supernatural belief while avoiding irrationality and intergroup conflict? It may well seem that rationality is incompatible with any wilful sacrifice of objectivity. But in a situation of uncertainty, an attractive compromise may be available by moving from the competing factions and mutual contradictions of ”first-order’ supernaturalism to a more abstract and tolerant ”second-order’ view, which itself can be given some distinctive intellectual support through the increasingly popular Fine Tuning Argument. We end by proposing a ”Maxim of the Moon’ to express the undogmatic spirit of this second-order religiosity, providing a cautionary metaphor to counter the pervasive bias endemic to the human condition, and offering a more cooperation- and humility-enhancing understanding of religious diversity in a tense and precarious globalised age

Building a binary outranking relation in uncertain, imprecise and multi-experts contexts: The application of evidence theory

AbstractWe consider multicriteria decision problems where the actions are evaluated on a set of ordinal criteria. The evaluation of each alternative with respect to each criterion may be uncertain and/or imprecise and is provided by one or several experts. We model this evaluation as a basic belief assignment (BBA). In order to compare the different pairs of alternatives according to each criterion, the concept of first belief dominance is proposed. Additionally, criteria weights are also expressed by means of a BBA. A model inspired by ELECTRE I is developed and illustrated by a pedagogical example

New Entrants versus Incumbents in the Emerging On-Line Financial Services Complex

The emergence of electronic commerce complexes raises important questions regarding competence building and leveraging, both for practitioners and strategy scholars. Competences of brick-and-mortar incumbents (large and mature players) are being challenged by new entrants' click-and-mortar or click-and-click business models. The implications of this challenge for the financial services industry - as for many other industries - are only starting to become clear. In this paper we contribute to these initial understandings by developing a conceptual framework that considers which strategies incumbents and new entrants might adopt to improve their competitiveness. We identify four relevant organizational types in the emerging on-line financial services complex. For each of these types we outline how ties to sponsoring organizations can be used as a buffer against environmental turbulence and as a bridge towards changing stakeholder perspectives.legitimacy;e-commerce;co-evolution;competence building and leveraging;on-line financial services complex

Fuzzy System to Assess Dangerous Driving: A Multidisciplinary Approach

Dangerous driving can cause accidents, injuries and loss of life. An efficient assessment helps to identify the absence or degree of dangerous driving to take the appropriate decisions while driving. Previous studies assess dangerous driving through two approaches: (i) using electronic devices or sensors that provide objective variables (acceleration, turns and speed), and (ii) analyzing responses to questionnaires from behavioral science that provide subjective variables (driving thoughts, opinions and perceptions from the driver). However, we believe that a holistic and more realistic assessment requires a combination of both types of variables. Therefore, we propose a three-phase fuzzy system with a multidisciplinary (computer science and behavioral sciences) approach that draws on the strengths of sensors embedded in smartphones and questionnaires to evaluate driver behavior and social desirability. Our proposal combines objective and subjective variables while mitigating the weaknesses of the disciplines used (sensor reading errors and lack of honesty from respondents, respectively). The methods used are of proven reliability in each discipline, and their outputs feed a combined fuzzy system used to handle the vagueness of the input variables, obtaining a personalized result for each driver. The results obtained using the proposed system in a real scenario were efficient at 84.21%, and were validated with mobility experts’ opinions. The presented fuzzy system can support intelligent transportation systems, driving safety, or personnel selection

Bayes Wars Redivivus - An Exchange

An electronic exchange among 10 evidence scholars that began with a discussion of the restyled Federal Rules and grew into a significant restatement of debates in evidentiary scholarship over the last 50 years, touching on relevance, probative value, inference, Bayesianism and the foundations of evidence, with an introduction by Michael Risinger

Scores of hesitant fuzzy elements revisited: “Was sind und was sollen”

[EN] This paper revolves around the notion of score for hesitant fuzzy elements, the constituent parts of hesitant fuzzy sets. Scores allow us to reduce the level of uncertainty of hesitant fuzzy sets to classical fuzzy sets, or to rank alternatives characterized by hesitant fuzzy information. We propose a rigorous and normative definition capable of encapsulating the characteristics of the most important scores introduced in the literature. We systematically analyse different types of scores, with a focus on coherence properties based on cardinality and monotonicity. The hesitant fuzzy elements considered in this analysis are unrestricted. The inspection of the infinite case is especially novel. In particular, special attention will be paid to the analysis of hesitant fuzzy elements that are intervals