Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Association of oestrogen receptor beta 2 (ERβ2/ERβcx) with outcome of adjuvant endocrine treatment for primary breast cancer – a retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Oestrogen receptor beta (ERβ) modulates ERα activity; wild type ERβ (ERβ1) and its splice variants may therefore impact on hormone responsiveness of breast cancer. ERβ2/ERβcx acts as a dominant negative inhibitor of ERα and expression of ERβ2 mRNA has been proposed as a candidate marker for outcome in primary breast cancer following adjuvant endocrine therapy. We therefore now assess ERβ2 protein by immunostaining and mRNA by quantitative RT-PCR in relation to treatment outcome.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ERβ2-specific immunostaining was quantified in 141 primary breast cancer cases receiving adjuvant endocrine therapy, but no neoadjuvant therapy or adjuvant chemotherapy. The expression of mRNA for ERβ2/ERβcx was measured in 100 cases by quantitative RT-PCR. Statistical analysis of breast cancer relapse and breast cancer survival was performed using Kaplan Meier log-rank tests and Cox's univariate and multivariate survival analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>High ERβ2 immunostaining (Allred score >5) and high ERβ2 mRNA levels were independently associated with significantly better outcome across the whole cohort, including both ERα positive and negative cases (Log-Rank P < 0.05). However, only ERβ2 mRNA levels were significantly associated with better outcome in the ERα + subgroup (Log-Rank P = 0.01) and this was independent of grade, size, nodal status and progesterone receptor status (Cox hazard ratio 0.31 P = 0.02 for relapse; 0.17 P = 0.01 for survival). High ERβ2 mRNA was also associated with better outcome in node negative cases (Log Rank P < 0.001).</p> <p>ERβ2 protein levels were greater in ERα positive cases (T-test P = 0.00001), possibly explaining the association with better outcome. Levels of ERβ2 protein did not correlate ERβ2 mRNA levels, but 34% of cases had both high mRNA and protein and had a significantly better outcome (Log-Rank relapse P < 0.005).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High ERβ2 protein levels were associated with ERα expression. Although most cases with high ERβ2 mRNA had strong ERβ2 immunostaining, mRNA levels but not protein levels were independently predictive of outcome in tamoxifen-treated ERα + tumours. Post-transcriptional control needs to be considered when assessing the biological or clinical importance of ERβ proteins.</p

Additive effect of LRP8/APOER2 R952Q variant to APOE ε2/ε3/ε4 genotype in modulating apolipoprotein E concentration and the risk of myocardial infarction: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: The R952Q variant in the low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 8 (LRP8)/apolipoprotein E receptor 2 (ApoER2) gene has been recently associated with familial and premature myocardial infarction (MI) by means of genome-wide linkage scan/association studies. We were interested in the possible interaction of the R952Q variant with another established cardiovascular genetic risk factor belonging to the same pathway, namely apolipoprotein E (APOE) epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 genotype, in modulating apolipoprotein E (ApoE) plasma levels and risk of MI. METHODS: In the Italian cohort used to confirm the association of the R952Q variant with MI, we assessed lipid profile, apolipoprotein concentrations, and APOE epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 genotype. Complete data were available for a total of 681 subjects in a case-control setting (287 controls and 394 patients with MI). RESULTS: Plasma ApoE levels decreased progressively across R952Q genotypes (mean levels +/- SD = RR: 0.045 +/- 0.020, RQ: 0.044 +/- 0.014, QQ: 0.040 +/- 0.008 g/l; P for trend = 0.047). Combination with APOE genotypes revealed an additive effect on ApoE levels, with the highest level observed in RR/non-carriers of the E4 allele (0.046 +/- 0.021 g/l), and the lowest level in QQ/E4 carriers (0.035 +/- 0.009 g/l; P for trend = 0.010). QQ/E4 was also the combined genotype with the most significant association with MI (OR 3.88 with 95\%CI 1.08-13.9 as compared with RR/non-carriers E4). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that LRP8 R952Q variant may have an additive effect to APOE epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 genotype in determining ApoE concentrations and risk of MI in an Italian population

Znf202 Affects High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels and Promotes Hepatosteatosis in Hyperlipidemic Mice

Background: The zinc finger protein Znf202 is a transcriptional suppressor of lipid related genes and has been linked to hypoalphalipoproteinemia. A functional role of Znf202 in lipid metabolism in vivo still remains to be established. Methodology and Principal Findings: We generated mouse Znf202 expression vectors, the functionality of which was established in several in vitro systems. Next, effects of adenoviral znf202 overexpression in vivo were determined in normo- as well as hyperlipidemic mouse models. Znf202 overexpression in mouse hepatoma cells mhAT3F2 resulted in downregulation of members of the Apoe/c1/c2 and Apoa1/c3/a4 gene cluster. The repressive activity of Znf202 was firmly confirmed in an apoE reporter assay and Znf202 responsive elements within the ApoE promoter were identified. Adenoviral Znf202 transfer to Ldlr-/- mice resulted in downregulation of apoe, apoc1, apoa1, and apoc3 within 24 h after gene transfer. Interestingly, key genes in bile flux (abcg5/8 and bsep) and in bile acid synthesis (cyp7a1) were also downregulated. At 5 days post-infection, the expression of the aforementioned genes was normalized, but mice had developed severe hepatosteatosis accompanied by hypercholesterolemia and hypoalphalipoproteinemia. A much milder phenotype was observed in wildtype mice after 5 days of hepatic Znf202 overexpression. Interestingly and similar to Ldl-/- mice, HDL-cholesterol levels in wildtype mice were lowered after hepatic Znf202 overexpression. Conclusion/Significance: Znf202 overexpression in vivo reveals an important role of this transcriptional regulator in liver lipid homeostasis, while firmly establishing the proposed key role in the control of HDL levels

Proteomics Mapping of Cord Blood Identifies Haptoglobin “Switch-On” Pattern as Biomarker of Early-Onset Neonatal Sepsis in Preterm Newborns

Intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation (IAI) are important causes of preterm birth and early-onset neonatal sepsis (EONS). A prompt and accurate diagnosis of EONS is critical for improved neonatal outcomes. We sought to explore the cord blood proteome and identify biomarkers and functional protein networks characterizing EONS in preterm newborns.We studied a prospective cohort of 180 premature newborns delivered May 2004-September 2009. A proteomics discovery phase employing two-dimensional differential gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) and mass spectrometry identified 19 differentially-expressed proteins in cord blood of newborns with culture-confirmed EONS (n = 3) versus GA-matched controls (n = 3). Ontological classifications of the proteins included transfer/carrier, immunity/defense, protease/extracellular matrix. The 1(st)-level external validation conducted in the remaining 174 samples confirmed elevated haptoglobin and haptoglobin-related protein immunoreactivity (Hp&HpRP) in newborns with EONS (presumed and culture-confirmed) independent of GA at birth and birthweight (P<0.001). Western blot concurred in determining that EONS babies had conspicuous Hp&HpRP bands in cord blood ("switch-on pattern") as opposed to non-EONS newborns who had near-absent "switch-off pattern" (P<0.001). Fetal Hp phenotype independently impacted Hp&HpRP. A bayesian latent-class analysis (LCA) was further used for unbiased classification of all 180 cases based on probability of "antenatal IAI exposure" as latent variable. This was then subjected to 2(nd)-level validation against indicators of adverse short-term neonatal outcome. The optimal LCA algorithm combined Hp&HpRP switch pattern (most input), interleukin-6 and neonatal hematological indices yielding two non-overlapping newborn clusters with low (≤20%) versus high (≥70%) probability of IAI exposure. This approach reclassified ∼30% of clinical EONS diagnoses lowering the number needed to harm and increasing the odds ratios for several adverse outcomes including intra-ventricular hemorrhage.Antenatal exposure to IAI results in precocious switch-on of Hp&HpRP expression. As EONS biomarker, cord blood Hp&HpRP has potential to improve the selection of newborns for prompt and targeted treatment at birth