James Croll and geological archives: testing astronomical theories of ice ages

James Croll's Physical Theory of Secular Changes of Climate emerged during an age of revolution in geology that included the rise of the glacial theory and the search for its underlying causes. According to Croll, periods of high eccentricity are associated with the persistence of long glacial epochs, within which glaciations occur in alternate hemispheres when winter is at aphelion every ~11,000 years; however, astronomical forcing is only able to produce glaciation by means of physical agencies (climate feedbacks) that amplify the small effects of varying seasonal irradiation. Croll understood the importance of interglacial deposits because they provided evidence for the occurrence of multiple glaciations within his long glacial epochs. He was aware of the limitations of the terrestrial record and suggested that deep-sea sediments would contain a continuous succession of glacial-interglacial cycles. Contrary to a widespread view, however, Croll was not envisaging the advent of palaeoceanographic exploration avant la lettre, but instead was drawing attention to the inadequacy of the land record as a testbed of his astronomical theory. Yet, the marine record did eventually deliver a test of astronomical theories almost exactly 100 years after the publication of his 1875 book Climate and Time in their Geological Relations. Here, we provide an historical account of the technological and scientific developments that led to this and a summary of insights on astronomically paced climate changes from marine, terrestrial and ice core records. We finally assess Croll's ideas in the context of our current understanding of the theory of ice ages

HO<inf>2</inf>NO<inf>2</inf> and HNO<inf>3</inf> in the coastal Antarctic winter night: A lab-in-the-field experiment

Abstract. Observations of peroxynitric acid (HO2NO2) and nitric acid (HNO3) were made during a 4 month period of Antarctic winter darkness at the coastal Antarctic research station, Halley. Mixing ratios of HNO3 ranged from instrumental detection limits to ~8 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), and of HO2NO2 from detection limits to ~5 pptv; the average ratio of HNO3 : HO2NO2 was 2.0(± 0.6) : 1, with HNO3 always present at greater mixing ratios than HO2NO2 during the winter darkness. An extremely strong association existed for the entire measurement period between mixing ratios of the respective trace gases and temperature: for HO2NO2, R2 = 0.72, and for HNO3, R2 = 0.70. We focus on three cases with considerable variation in temperature, where wind speeds were low and constant, such that, with the lack of photochemistry, changes in mixing ratio were likely to be driven by physical mechanisms alone. We derived enthalpies of adsorption (ΔHads) for these three cases. The average ΔHads for HNO3 was −42 ± 2 kJ mol−1 and for HO2NO2 was −56 ± 1 kJ mol−1; these values are extremely close to those derived in laboratory studies. This exercise demonstrates (i) that adsorption to/desorption from the snow pack should be taken into account when addressing budgets of boundary layer HO2NO2 and HNO3 at any snow-covered site, and (ii) that Antarctic winter can be used as a natural "laboratory in the field" for testing data on physical exchange mechanisms. This study is part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. It was funded by The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/11843/2014/acp-14-11843-2014.html

The Growth Response of Two Diatom Species to Atmospheric Dust from the Last Glacial Maximum

Relief of iron (Fe) limitation in the surface Southern Ocean has been suggested as one driver of the regular glacial-interglacial cycles in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO$_2$). The proposed cause is enhanced deposition of Fe-bearing atmospheric dust to the oceans during glacial intervals, with consequent effects on export production and the carbon cycle. However, understanding the role of enhanced atmospheric Fe supply in biogeochemical cycles is limited by knowledge of the fluxes and 'bioavailability' of atmospheric Fe during glacial intervals. Here, we assess the effect of Fe fertilization by dust, dry-extracted from the Last Glacial Maximum portion of the EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice core, on the Antarctic diatom species $\textit{Eucampia antarctica}$ and $\textit{Proboscia inermis}$. Both species showed strong but differing reactions to dust addition. $\textit{E. antarctica}$ increased cell number (3880 vs.786 cells mL$^{-1}$), chlorophyll a (51 vs. 3.9 μg mL$^{-1}$) and particulate organic carbon (POC; 1.68 vs. 0.28 μg mL$^{-1}$) production in response to dust compared to controls. $\textit{P. inermis}$ did not increase cell number in response to dust, but chlorophyll $a$ and POC per cell both strongly increased compared to controls (39 vs. 15 and 2.13 vs. 0.95 ng cell$^{-1}$ respectively). The net result of both responses was a greater production of POC and chlorophyll $a$, as well as decreased Si:C and Si:N incorporation ratios within cells. However, $\textit{E, antarctica}$ decreased silicate uptake for the same nitrate and carbon uptake, while $\textit{P. inermis}$ increased carbon and nitrate uptake for the same silicate uptake. This suggests that nutrient utilization changes in response to Fe addition could be driven by different underlying mechanisms between different diatom species. Enhanced supply of atmospheric dust to the surface ocean during glacial intervals could therefore have driven nutrient-utilization changes which could permit greater carbon fixation for lower silica utilization. Additionally, both species responded more strongly to lower amounts of direct Fe chloride addition than they did to dust, suggesting that not all the Fe released from dust was in a bioavailable form available for uptake by diatoms.Natural Environment Research Council (Studentship), Royal Society (Grant ID: RP120096), German Research Foundation (Grant IDs: HO-4217, BR-3794

Constraints on soluble aerosol iron flux to the Southern Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum.

Relief of iron (Fe) limitation in the Southern Ocean during ice ages, with potentially increased carbon storage in the ocean, has been invoked as one driver of glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 cycles. Ice and marine sediment records demonstrate that atmospheric dust supply to the oceans increased by up to an order of magnitude during glacial intervals. However, poor constraints on soluble atmospheric Fe fluxes to the oceans limit assessment of the role of Fe in glacial-interglacial change. Here, using novel techniques, we present estimates of water- and seawater-soluble Fe solubility in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) atmospheric dust from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C and Berkner Island ice cores. Fe solubility was very variable (1-42%) during the interval, and frequently higher than typically assumed by models. Soluble aerosol Fe fluxes to Dome C at the LGM (0.01-0.84 mg m(-2) per year) suggest that soluble Fe deposition to the Southern Ocean would have been ≥10 × modern deposition, rivalling upwelling supply.This work is a contribution to the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), a joint European Science Foundation/European Commission (EC) scientific programme. This study was funded by a NERC studentship to T.M.C. and E.W.W. is funded by a Royal Society professorship.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms885

Comment on "low time resolution analysis of polar ice cores cannot detect impulsive nitrate events" by D.F. Smart et al.

Smart et al. (2014) suggested that the detection of nitrate spikes in polar ice cores from solar energetic particle (SEP) events could be achieved if an analytical system with sufficiently high resolution was used. Here we show that the spikes they associate with SEP events are not reliably recorded in cores from the same location, even when the resolution is clearly adequate. We explain the processes that limit the effective resolution of ice cores. Liquid conductivity data suggests that the observed spikes are associated with sodium or another non-acidic cation, making it likely that they result from deposition of sea salt or similar aerosol that has scavenged nitrate, rather than from a primary input of nitrate in the troposphere. We consider that there is no evidence at present to support the identification of any spikes in nitrate as representing SEP events. Although such events undoubtedly create nitrate in the atmosphere, we see no plausible route to using nitrate spikes to document the statistics of such events.EW is supported by a Royal Society Professorship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JA02157

Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early Last Interglacial climate

Recent data compilations of the early Last Interglacial period have indicated a bipolar temperature response at 130 ka, with colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean and over Antarctica. However, climate model simulations of this period have been unable to reproduce this response, when only orbital and greenhouse gas forcings are considered in a climate model framework. Using a full-complexity general circulation model we perform climate model simulations representative of 130 ka conditions which include a magnitude of freshwater forcing derived from data at this time. We show that this meltwater from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the glacial-interglacial transition produces a modelled climate response similar to the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic at 130 ka and also results in warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean via the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Further simulations in which the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also removed lead to warming in East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean but do not appreciably improve the model-data comparison. This integrated model-data approach provides evidence that Northern Hemisphere freshwater forcing is an important player in the evolution of early Last Interglacial climate.This work was carried out with funding from the UK-NERC consortium iGlass (NE/I009906/1) and is also a contribution to the European Union’s Seventh Framework programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement 243908, “Past4Future. Climate change – Learning from the past climate”. This is Past4Future contribution no. 85

Comment on "low time resolution analysis of polar ice cores cannot detect impulsive nitrate events" by D.F. Smart et al.

AbstractSmart et al. (2014) suggested that the detection of nitrate spikes in polar ice cores from solar energetic particle (SEP) events could be achieved if an analytical system with sufficiently high resolution was used. Here we show that the spikes they associate with SEP events are not reliably recorded in cores from the same location, even when the resolution is clearly adequate. We explain the processes that limit the effective resolution of ice cores. Liquid conductivity data suggest that the observed spikes are associated with sodium or another nonacidic cation, making it likely that they result from deposition of sea salt or similar aerosol that has scavenged nitrate, rather than from a primary input of nitrate in the troposphere. We consider that there is no evidence at present to support the identification of any spikes in nitrate as representing SEP events. Although such events undoubtedly create nitrate in the atmosphere, we see no plausible route to using nitrate spikes to document the statistics of such events.EW is supported by a Royal Society Professorship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JA02157

Comment on "low time resolution analysis of polar ice cores cannot detect impulsive nitrate events" by D.F. Smart et al.

Smart et al. (2014) suggested that the detection of nitrate spikes in polar ice cores from solar energetic particle (SEP) events could be achieved if an analytical system with sufficiently high resolution was used. Here we show that the spikes they associate with SEP events are not reliably recorded in cores from the same location, even when the resolution is clearly adequate. We explain the processes that limit the effective resolution of ice cores. Liquid conductivity data suggests that the observed spikes are associated with sodium or another non-acidic cation, making it likely that they result from deposition of sea salt or similar aerosol that has scavenged nitrate, rather than from a primary input of nitrate in the troposphere. We consider that there is no evidence at present to support the identification of any spikes in nitrate as representing SEP events. Although such events undoubtedly create nitrate in the atmosphere, we see no plausible route to using nitrate spikes to document the statistics of such events.EW is supported by a Royal Society Professorship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JA02157

Continuous flow analysis methods for sodium, magnesium and calcium detection in the Skytrain ice core

AbstractDissolved and particulate sodium, magnesium and calcium are analyzed in ice cores to determine past changes in sea ice extent, terrestrial dust variability and atmospheric aerosol transport efficiency. They are also used to date ice cores if annual layers are visible. Multiple methods have been developed to analyze these important compounds in ice cores. Continuous flow analysis (CFA) is implemented with instruments that sample the meltstream continuously. In this study, CFA with ICP-MS (inductively coupled-plasma mass spectrometry) and fast ion chromatography (FIC) methods are compared for analysis of sodium and magnesium. ICP-MS, FIC and fluorescence methods are compared for analysis of calcium. Respective analysis of a 10 m section of the Antarctic WACSWAIN Skytrain Ice Rise ice core shows that all of the methods result in similar levels of the compounds. The ICP-MS method is the most suitable for analysis of the Skytrain ice core due to its superior precision (relative standard deviation: 1.6% for Na, 1.3% for Mg and 1.2% for Ca) and sampling frequency compared to the FIC method. The fluorescence detection method may be preferred for calcium analysis due to its higher depth resolution (1.4 cm) relative to the ICP-MS and FIC methods (~4 cm).European Research Counci

Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to benchmark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions

The Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 thousand years ago, ka) represents an excellent case study to investigate the response of sensitive components of the Earth System and mechanisms of high-lati tude amplification to a climate warmer than present-day. The Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 4, hereafter referred as PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6, hereafter referred as CMIP6) are coordinating the design of (1) a LIG Tier 1 equilibrium simulation to simulate the climate response at 127 ka, a time interval associated with a strong orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations close to preindustrial levels and (2) associated Tier 2 sensitivity experiments to examine the role of the ocean, vegetation and dust feedbacks in modulating the response to this orbital forcing. Evaluating the capability of the CMIP6/PMIP4 models to reproduce the 127 ka polar and sub-polar climate will require appropriate data-based benchmarks which are currently missing. Based on a recent data synthesis that offers the first spatio-temporal representation of high-latitude (i.e. poleward of 40°N and 40°S) surface temperature evolution during the LIG, we produce a new 126–128 ka time slab, hereafter named 127 ka time slice. This 127 ka time slice represents surface temperature anomalies relative to preindustrial and is associated with quantitative estimates of the uncertainties related to relative dating and surface temperature reconstruction methods. It illustrates warmer-than-preindustrial conditions in the high-latitude regions of both hemispheres. In particular, summer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic region were on average 1.1 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.7 °C) warmer relative to preindustrial and 1.8 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.8 °C) in the Southern Ocean. In Antarctica, average 127 ka annual surface air temperature was 2.2 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 1.4 °C) warmer compared to preindustrial. We provide a critical evaluation of the latest LIG surface climate compilations that are available for evaluating LIG climate model experiments. We discuss in particular our new 127 ka time-slice in the context of existing LIG surface temperature time-slices. We also compare the 127 ka time slice with the ones published for the 125 and 130 ka time intervals and we discuss the potential and limits of a data-based time slice at 127 ka in the context of the upcoming coordinated modeling exercise. Finally we provide guidance on the use of the available LIG climate compilations for future model-data comparison exercises in the framework of the upcoming CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka experiments. We do not recommend the use of LIG peak warmth-centered syntheses. Instead we promote the use of the most recent syntheses that are based on coherent chronologies between paleoclimatic records and provide spatio-temporal reconstruction of the LIG climate. In particular, we recommend using our new 127 ka data-based time slice in model-data comparison studies with a focus on the high-latitude climate.E. C. is funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research and innovation under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no 600207. B. L. O-B is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsorship of NCAR. R. F. acknowledges the funding of the NSF Arctic System Science. E.W.W. is supported by the Royal Society. This is LSCE contribution no 6117