Mendelian randomization study of the association between telomere length and risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases

$\textbf{Importance}$ The causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain, due to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation. $\textbf{Objective}$ To conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases. $\textbf{Data Sources}$ Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15 2015. $\textbf{Study Selection}$ GWAS of non-communicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of pre-existing diseases. Of 163 GWAS of non-communicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available. $\textbf{Data Extraction}$ Summary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population. $\textbf{Main Outcomes}$ Odds ratios (ORs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation. $\textbf{Results}$ Summary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420,081 cases (median 2,526 per disease) and 1,093,105 controls (median 6,789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations were observed for (ORs per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length): glioma 5.27 (3.15-8.81), serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer 4.35 (2.39-7.94), lung adenocarcinoma 3.19 (2.40-4.22), neuroblastoma 2.98 (1.92-4.62) , bladder cancer 2.19 (1.32-3.66), melanoma 1.87 (1.55-2.26), testicular cancer 1.76 (1.02- 3.04), kidney cancer 1.55 (1.08-2.23) and endometrial cancer 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division (P<0.05). There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (0.78 [0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (0.63 [0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (0.42 [0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (0.09 [0.05- 0.15]). $\textbf{Conclusions}$ It is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.This work was supported by CRUK grant number C18281/A19169 (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). Dr Haycock is supported by CRUK Population Research Postdoctoral Fellowship C52724/A20138. The MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit is supported by grants MC_UU_12013/1 and MC_UU_12013/2. Dr Martin is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the Bristol Nutritional Biomedical Research Unit and the University of Bristol

Hemostatic factors and risk of coronary heart disease in general populations: new prospective study and updated meta-analyses

&lt;p&gt;Background: Activation of blood coagulation and fibrinolysis may be associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess associations of circulating tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) antigen, D-dimer and von Willebrand factor (VWF) with coronary heart disease risk.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Design: Prospective case-control study, systematic review and meta-analyses.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods: Measurements were made in 1925 people who had a first-ever nonfatal myocardial infarction or died of coronary heart disease during follow-up (median 19.4 years) and in 3616 controls nested within the prospective population-based Reykjavik Study.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: Age and sex-adjusted odds ratios for coronary heart disease per 1 standard deviation higher baseline level were 1.25 (1.18, 1.33) for t-PA antigen, 1.01 (0.95, 1.07) for D-dimer and 1.11 (1.05, 1.18) for VWF. After additional adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors, corresponding odds ratios were 1.07 (0.99, 1.14) for t-PA antigen, 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) for D-dimer and 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) for VWF. When combined with the results from previous prospective studies in a random-effects meta-analysis, overall adjusted odds ratios were 1.13 (1.06, 1.21) for t-PA antigen (13 studies, 5494 cases), 1.23 (1.16, 1.32) with D-dimer (18 studies, 6799 cases) and 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) with VWF (15 studies, 6556 cases).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Concentrations of t-PA antigen, D-dimer and VWF may be more modestly associated with first-ever CHD events than previously reported. More detailed analysis is required to clarify whether these markers are causal risk factors or simply correlates of coronary heart disease.&lt;/p&gt

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and the prediction of primary cardiovascular events: results from 15-year follow-up of WOSCOPS

&lt;b&gt;Aims:&lt;/b&gt;To test whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was independently associated with, and improved the prediction of, cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a primary prevention cohort. &lt;b&gt;Methods and results:&lt;/b&gt; In the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS), a cohort of middle-aged men with hypercholesterolaemia at a moderate risk of CVD, we related the baseline NT-proBNP (geometric mean 28 pg/mL) in 4801 men to the risk of CVD over 15 years during which 1690 experienced CVD events. Taking into account the competing risk of non-CVD death, NT-proBNP was associated with an increased risk of all CVD [HR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11–1.23) per standard deviation increase in log NT-proBNP] after adjustment for classical and clinical cardiovascular risk factors plus C-reactive protein. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was more strongly related to the risk of fatal [HR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.19–1.52)] than non-fatal CVD [HR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.10–1.24)] (P= 0.022). The addition of NT-proBNP to traditional risk factors improved the C-index (+0.013; P &lt; 0.001). The continuous net reclassification index improved with the addition of NT-proBNP by 19.8% (95% CI: 13.6–25.9%) compared with 9.8% (95% CI: 4.2–15.6%) with the addition of C-reactive protein. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide correctly reclassified 14.7% of events, whereas C-reactive protein correctly reclassified 3.4% of events. Results were similar in the 4128 men without evidence of angina, nitrate prescription, minor ECG abnormalities, or prior cerebrovascular disease. &lt;b&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/b&gt; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide predicts CVD events in men without clinical evidence of CHD, angina, or history of stroke, and appears related more strongly to the risk for fatal events. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide also provides moderate risk discrimination, in excess of that provided by the measurement of C-reactive protein

Circulating MicroRNA-122 Is Associated With the Risk of New-Onset Metabolic Syndrome and Type 2 Diabetes

MicroRNA-122 (miR-122) is abundant in the liver and involved in lipid homeostasis, but its relevance to the long-term risk of developing metabolic disorders is unknown. We therefore measured circulating miR-122 in the prospective population-based Bruneck Study (n = 810; survey year 1995). Circulating miR-122 was associated with prevalent insulin resistance, obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, and an adverse lipid profile. Among 92 plasma proteins and 135 lipid subspecies quantified with mass spectrometry, it correlated inversely with zinc-α-2-glycoprotein and positively with afamin, complement factor H, VLDL-associated apolipoproteins, and lipid subspecies containing monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids. Proteomics analysis of livers from antagomiR-122–treated mice revealed novel regulators of hepatic lipid metabolism that are responsive to miR-122 inhibition. In the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT, n = 155), 12-month atorvastatin reduced circulating miR-122. A similar response to atorvastatin was observed in mice and cultured murine hepatocytes. Over up to 15 years of follow-up in the Bruneck Study, multivariable adjusted risk ratios per one-SD higher log miR-122 were 1.60 (95% CI 1.30–1.96; P < 0.001) for metabolic syndrome and 1.37 (1.03–1.82; P = 0.021) for type 2 diabetes. In conclusion, circulating miR-122 is strongly associated with the risk of developing metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes in the general population

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied).We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell’s concordance index, and Royston’s discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using aweighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from casecontrol studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Ian R. White, Simon G. Thompson, Angela M. Wood and the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (Debbie A. Lawlor

Application of a Simple Parkinson's Disease Risk Score in a Longitudinal Population-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at risk of developing Parkinson's disease (PD) is critical to define target populations for future neuroprotective trials. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to apply the PREDICT-PD algorithm of risk indicators for PD in a prospective community-based study (the Bruneck study), representative of the general elderly population. METHODS: PREDICT-PD risk scores were calculated based on risk factor assessments obtained at baseline (2005, n = 574 participants). Cases of incident PD were identified at 5-year and 10-year follow-ups. Participants with PD or secondary parkinsonism at baseline were excluded (n = 35). We analyzed the association of log-transformed risk scores with the presence of well-established markers as surrogates for PD risk at baseline and with incident PD at follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 20 participants with incident PD were identified during follow-up (11 after 5 years and 9 after 10 years). Baseline PREDICT-PD risk scores were associated with incident PD with odds ratios of 2.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.35-3.25; P = 0.001) after 5 years and of 1.95 (1.36-2.79; P < 0.001) after 10 years of follow-up per doubling of risk scores. In addition, higher PREDICT-PD scores were significantly correlated with established PD risk markers (olfactory dysfunction, signs of rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder and motor deficits) and significantly associated with higher probability for prodromal PD according to the Movement Disorder Society research criteria at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT-PD score was associated with an increased risk for incident PD in our sample and may represent a useful first screening step in future algorithms aiming to identify cases of prodromal PD. © 2020 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society

Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: Individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. Aims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after \u27recalibration\u27, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at \u27high\u27 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need

Does subclinical inflammation contribute to impairment of function of knee joints in aged individuals? High prevalence of ultrasound inflammatory findings

Objectives. To investigate the prevalence of knee US findings of inflammation and structural damage in aged individuals (≥60 years) of a long-term population-based cohort and to correlate these findings with demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods. Cross-sectional clinical and US investigation of both knee joints during the 2010 follow-up of the prospective population-based Bruneck Study. Demographic variables, physical activity, comorbidities, medications, pain, and functional scales related to the knee joints were recorded. US-assessed parameters were synovial hypertrophy, power Doppler signal, joint effusion, cartilage abnormalities, osteophytes, enthesopathy and bursitis. Statistics included univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Results. A total of 488 subjects (mean age 72.5 years; 53.5% females, 46.5% males) were examined by clinical assessment, and 433 of these underwent US examination of both knees. Both inflammatory and structural abnormalities were found in 296 (68.8%) subjects. Inflammatory abnormalities were significantly associated with age in years, male gender, diabetes and the presence of knee joint symptoms. In the multivariate analysis, age, male gender and knee swelling emerged as independent predictors of inflammation [odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) = 1.06 (1.03, 1.09), 2.55 (1.55, 4.21) and 5.92 (1.99, 17.58), respectively]. Conclusion. The present study showed a high prevalence of US inflammatory abnormalities in the knee joints of a normal aged population. These data suggest a substantial contribution of inflammation in progressive impairment of joint function with age

Covariate-adjusted measures of discrimination for survival data

Motivation: Discrimination statistics describe the ability of a survival model to assign higher risks to individuals who experience earlier events: examples are Harrell's C-index and Royston and Sauerbrei's D, which we call the D-index. Prognostic covariates whose distributions are controlled by the study design (e.g. age and sex) influence discrimination and can make it difficult to compare model discrimination between studies. Although covariate adjustment is a standard procedure for quantifying disease-risk factor associations, there are no covariate adjustment methods for discrimination statistics in censored survival data. Objective: To develop extensions of the C-index and D-index that describe the prognostic ability of a model adjusted for one or more covariate(s).Method: We define a covariate-adjusted C-index and D-index for censored survival data, propose several estimators, and investigate their performance in simulation studies and in data from a large individual participant data meta-analysis, the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Results: The proposed methods perform well in simulations. In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration data, the age-adjusted C-index and D-index were substantially smaller than unadjusted values. The study-specific standard deviation of baseline age was strongly associated with the unadjusted C-index and D-index but not significantly associated with the age-adjusted indices. Conclusions: The proposed estimators improve meta-analysis comparisons, are easy to implement and give a more meaningful clinical interpretation.Ian R. White ... D. Lawlor ... Emerging Risk Factors Collaboratio

Moderate to vigorous physical activity and sedentary behavior changes in self-isolating adults during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: a cross-sectional survey exploring correlates.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic imposed major changes on daily-life routine worldwide. To the best of our knowledge, no study quantified the changes on moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviors (SB) and its correlates in Brazilians. This study aimed to (i) evaluate the changes (pre versus during pandemic) in time spent in MVPA and SB in self-isolating Brazilians during the COVID-19 pandemic, and (ii) to explore correlates. METHODS: A cross-sectional, retrospective, self-report online web survey, evaluating the time spent in MVPA and SB pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic in self-isolating people in Brazil. Sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical measures, and time in self-isolation were also obtained. Changes in MVPA and SB and their correlates were explored using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Models were adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: A total of 877 participants (72.7% women, 53.7% young adults [18-34 years]) were included. Overall, participants reported a 59.7% reduction (95% CI 35.6-82.2) in time spent on MVPA during the pandemic, equivalent to 64.28 (95% CI 36.06-83.33) minutes per day. Time spent in SB increased 42.0% (95% CI 31.7-52.5), corresponding to an increase of 152.3 (95% CI 111.9-192.7) minutes per day. Greater reductions in MVPA and increases in SB were seen in younger adults, those not married, those employed, and those with a self-reported previous diagnosis of a mental disorder. CONCLUSIONS: People in self-isolation significantly reduced MVPA levels and increased SB. Public health strategies are needed to mitigate the impact of self-isolation on MVPA and SB. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11332-021-00788-x