Constrained correlation functions from the Millennium Simulation

Context. In previous work, we developed a quasi-Gaussian approximation for the likelihood of correlation functions, which, in contrast to the usual Gaussian approach, incorporates fundamental mathematical constraints on correlation functions. The analytical computation of these constraints is only feasible in the case of correlation functions of one-dimensional random fields. Aims. In this work, we aim to obtain corresponding constraints in the case of higher-dimensional random fields and test them in a more realistic context. Methods. We develop numerical methods to compute the constraints on correlation functions which are also applicable for two- and three-dimensional fields. In order to test the accuracy of the numerically obtained constraints, we compare them to the analytical results for the one-dimensional case. Finally, we compute correlation functions from the halo catalog of the Millennium Simulation, check whether they obey the constraints, and examine the performance of the transformation used in the construction of the quasi-Gaussian likelihood. Results. We find that our numerical methods of computing the constraints are robust and that the correlation functions measured from the Millennium Simulation obey them. Despite the fact that the measured correlation functions lie well inside the allowed region of parameter space, i.e. far away from the boundaries of the allowed volume defined by the constraints, we find strong indications that the quasi-Gaussian likelihood yields a substantially more accurate description than the Gaussian one.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, updated to match version accepted by A&

A quasi-Gaussian approximation for the probability distribution of correlation functions

Context. Whenever correlation functions are used for inference about cosmological parameters in the context of a Bayesian analysis, the likelihood function of correlation functions needs to be known. Usually, it is approximated as a multivariate Gaussian, though this is not necessarily a good approximation. Aims. We show how to calculate a better approximation for the probability distribution of correlation functions, which we call "quasi-Gaussian". Methods. Using the exact univariate PDF as well as constraints on correlation functions previously derived, we transform the correlation functions to an unconstrained variable for which the Gaussian approximation is well justified. From this Gaussian in the transformed space, we obtain the quasi-Gaussian PDF. The two approximations for the probability distributions are compared to the "true" distribution as obtained from simulations. Additionally, we test how the new approximation performs when used as likelihood in a toy-model Bayesian analysis. Results. The quasi-Gaussian PDF agrees very well with the PDF obtained from simulations; in particular, it provides a significantly better description than a straightforward copula approach. In a simple toy-model likelihood analysis, it yields noticeably different results than the Gaussian likelihood, indicating its possible impact on cosmological parameter estimation.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, updated to match version accepted by A&

Deep Near-Infrared Imaging of the rho Oph Cloud Core: Clues to the Origin of the Lowest-Mass Brown Dwarfs

A search for young substellar objects in the rho Oph cloud core region has been made using the deep-integration Combined Calibration Scan images of the 2MASS extended mission in J, H and Ks bands, and Spitzer IRAC images at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8 and 8.0 microns. The field of view of the combined observations was 1 deg x 9.3 arcmin, and the 5 sigma limiting magnitude at J was 20.5. Comparison of the observed SEDs with the predictions of the COND and DUSTY models, for an assumed age of 1 Myr, supports the identification of many of the sources with brown dwarfs, and enables the estimation of effective temperature, Teff. The cluster members are then readily distinguishable from background stars by their locations on a plot of flux density versus Teff. The range of estimated Teff extends down to ~ 750 K, suggesting the presence of objects of sub-Jupiter mass. The results also suggest that the mass function for the rho Oph cloud resembles that of the sigma Orionis cluster based on a recent study, with both rising towards lower masses. The other main result from our study is the apparent presence of a progressive blueward skew in the distribution of J-H and H-Ks colors, such that the blue end of the range becomes increasingly bluer with increasing magnitude. We suggest that this behavior might be understood in terms of the 'ejected stellar embryo' hypothesis, whereby some of the lowest-mass brown dwarfs could escape to locations close to the front edge of the cloud, and thereby be seen with less extinction.Comment: 37 pages, 10 figures; to be published in Ap

Outbreak of cryptosporidium hominis following river flooding in the city of Halle (Saale), Germany, August 2013

Background: During weeks 32–33, 2013, 24 cases of cryptosporidiosis were notified in the city of Halle (annual mean 2008–2012: 9 cases). We investigated the outbreak to identify the source and recommend control measures, considering that between weeks 23–25 the river Saale which flows through the city centre overflowed the floodplain, parts of the city centre and damaged sewage systems. Methods: We defined a case as a resident of Halle with gastroenteritis, Cryptosporidium-positive stool and disease onset weeks 27 through 47. In a case–control study among kindergarten children, we compared cases and controls regarding environmental exposure, use of swimming pools, zoo visits and tap water consumption 14 days pre-onset or a corresponding 14-days-period (controls) and adjusted for residence. Stool specimens were tested by microscopy and PCR, and Cryptosporidium DNA was sequenced. Samples from public water system, swimming pools and river Saale were examined for Cryptosporidium oocysts (microscopy and PCR). Results: Overall, 167 cases were detected, 40/167 (24%) were classified as secondary cases. First disease onsets occurred during week 29, numbers peaked in week 34 and started to decrease in week 36. Median age was 8 years (range: 0–77). Compared to controls (n = 61), cases (n = 20) were more likely to report visits to previously flooded areas (OR: 4.9; 95%-CI: 1.4-18) and the zoo (OR: 2.6; 95%-CI: 0.9-7.6). In multivariable analysis visits to the floodplain remained the sole risk factor (OR: 5.5; 95%-CI: 1.4-22). Only C.hominis of a single genotype (IbA9G2) was detected in stools. Oocysts were detected in samples from the river, two local lakes and three public swimming pools by microscopy, but not in the public water supply. Conclusions: Evidence suggests that activities in the dried out floodplain led to infection among children. Secondary transmissions may be involved. Consequently, authorities recommended to avoid playing, swimming and having picnics in the flood-affected area. Health authorities should consider the potential health risks of long-term surviving parasites persisting on flooded grounds and in open waters even several weeks after the flooding and of bathing places close to sewage spill-overs. Preventive measures comprise water sampling (involving parasites), information of the public and prolonged closures of potentially contaminated sites

The European Code of Cancer Practice

There are considerable disparities between the quality of cancer care and clinical outcomes for cancer patients in different European countries, regions, hospitals and communities. These have persisted despite the introduction of many European and National Cancer Plans, an extensive portfolio of clinical guidelines and the existence of evidence based guidelines for the good practice in planning cancer healthcare systems. We describe the European Code of Cancer Practice which is a citizen and patient-centred accessible widely disseminated statement of the core requirements for good clinical cancer practice. The Code sets out 10 key overarching Rights of what a patient should expect from their healthcare system each supported by a plain language explanation. The Rights highlight the importance of equal access to affordable and optimal cancer care, good quality information about an individual patient’s disease and treatment and about the quality and outcomes of the cancer service they will use. Specialised multidisciplinary cancer care teams, shared decision-making, research and innovation, a focus on quality of life, the integration of supportive and palliative care within oncology are all emphasised. There is a need for a systematic approach to supporting cancer survivors with a survivorship care plan including their rehabilitation, reintegration into society and return to work where appropriate without discrimination. The Code has been co-produced by a team of cancer patients, patient advocates and cancer professionals to bridge the gap between clinical guidelines, healthcare policies and patients’ everyday experience. It is robustly evidence-based and supported by a comprehensive review of the medical literature and evidence for good clinical practice. The Code is strongly endorsed by Europe’s professional and patient cancer organisations and the European Commission

Comparator report on patient access to cancer medicines in Europe revisited

In a new report, the Swedish Institute for Health Economics (IHE) compares the cancer situation in EU28 plus Norway and Switzerland. The report builds on a previous comparative study conducted in 2005 and provides a comprehensive view of the development of cancer in Europe over the past two decades. The report shows that the number of people diagnosed with cancer continue to increase in Europe, up by 30 percent between 1995 and 2012 due to a growing and aging population. Despite this growth and an increased spending on cancer medicines the overall spending on cancer care has remained stable at around six percent of total health expenditure largely due to a shift towards outpatient care. The report also concludes that there is great difference in access to medicines, in particular between richer and poorer countries but also between countries with similar purchasing power. The access problem requires collaboration between policy makers, payers, regulators, HTA bodies and manufacturers. Local solutions seem most feasible to balance the risk and reward of new treatment options between payers and manufacturers and reflect the affordability levels of different countries