Estimating the functional form for the density dependence from life history data

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age- and sex-specific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments

Playing “hide and seek” with the Mediterranean monk seal: a citizen science dataset reveals its distribution from molecular traces (eDNA)

Animal conservation relies on assessing the distribution and habitat use of species, but for endangered/elusive animals this can prove difficult. The Monk Seal, Monachus monachus, is one of the world's most endangered species of pinniped, and the only one endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. During recent decades, direct observations have been few and scattered, making it difficult to determine its distribution away from the Aegean Sea (core distribution area of the post-decline relict population). This study relies on environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis to detect the presence of the Monk Seal in 135 samples collected in 120 locations of the central/western Mediterranean Sea, spanning about 1500 km longitudinally and 1000 km latitudinally. A recently described species-specific qPCR assay was used on marine-water samples, mostly collected during 2021 by a Citizen Science (CS) project. Positive detections occurred throughout the longitudinal range, including the westernmost surveyed area (Balearic archipelago). The distribution of the positive detections indicated six “hotspots”, mostly overlapping with historical Monk Seal sites, suggesting that habitat-specific characteristics play a fundamental role. We applied single-season occupancy models to correct for detection probability and to assess the importance of site-specific characteristics. The distance from small islets and protected (or access-restricted) areas was correlated negatively with the detection probability. This novel molecular approach, applied here for the first time in an extensive CS study, proved its potential as a tool for monitoring the distribution of this endangered/elusive species

Contribución del anillamiento al conocimiento y conservación de las aves en España: pasado, presente y futuro

El anillamiento científico de aves es una técnica de estudio con más de un siglo de historia que, probablemente, ha contribuido como ninguna otra metodología al conocimiento de la biología de este grupo faunístico. A pesar del desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías, el marcaje individual de aves mediante anillamiento sigue siendo una técnica plenamente vigente y necesaria. Aunque la evidencia científica sobre los beneficios de la aplicación del anillamiento en la Ornitología moderna es abrumadora, hoy vivimos un proceso de creciente desinformación que cuestiona el anillamiento de aves y su utilidad. Este dosier se ha elaborado con el fin de ofrecer una visión actualizada de la utilidad del anillamiento científico de aves en España. Ha sido elaborado por un nutrido grupo de expertos asociados a universidades y centros de investigación que abarcan buena parte de las áreas del conocimiento implicadas en el estudio y conservación de las aves. El dosier se divide en cuatro grandes apartados. (1) En primer lugar se hace una introducción sobre el anillamiento como metodología y se resumen las grandes cifras del anillamiento en España donde, hasta la fecha, se han anillado algo más de 10.000.000 de aves y se han registrado 700.000 recuperaciones (en la actualidad se anillan unas 380.000 aves y se obtienen unas 30.000 recuperaciones anualmente). (2) En un segundo bloque se resume la aplicación del anillamiento en diferentes aproximaciones al estudio científico de las aves, que van apoyadas por numerosas referencias bibliográficas sobre trabajos llevados a cabo en España. Gracias al anillamiento se han podido abordar múltiples estudios sobre movimientos y migraciones, reproducción, demografía, enfermedades, morfología, muda e identificación y taxonomía. (3) Un tercer bloque se centra en la utilidad del anillamiento más allá de la investigación básica. Es el caso de la conservación, la gestión de especies cinegéticas y el estudio de los impactos del cambio global sobre las aves, por un lado, y la educación ambiental, formación y ciencia ciudadana, por otro. (4) Finalmente, se abordan algunas ideas sobre los retos actuales y perspectivas de futuro del anillamiento en España

The efficacy of iron chelator regimes in reducing cardiac and hepatic iron in patients with thalassaemia major: a clinical observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Available iron chelation regimes in thalassaemia may achieve different changes in cardiac and hepatic iron as assessed by MR. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of four available iron chelator regimes in 232 thalassaemia major patients by assessing the rate of change in repeated measurements of cardiac and hepatic MR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the heart, deferiprone and the combination of deferiprone and deferoxamine significantly reduced cardiac iron at all levels of iron loading. As patients were on deferasirox for a shorter time, a second analysis ("Initial interval analysis") assessing the change between the first two recorded MR results for both cardiac and hepatic iron (minimum interval 12 months) was made. Combination therapy achieved the most rapid fall in cardiac iron load at all levels and deferiprone alone was significantly effective with moderate and mild iron load. In the liver, deferasirox effected significant falls in iron load and combination therapy resulted in the most rapid decline.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>With the knowledge of the efficacy of the different available regimes and the specific iron load in the heart and the liver, appropriate tailoring of chelation therapy should allow clearance of iron. Combination therapy is best in reducing both cardiac and hepatic iron, while monotherapy with deferiprone or deferasirox are effective in the heart and liver respectively. The outcomes of this study may be useful to physicians as to the chelation they should prescribe according to the levels of iron load found in the heart and liver by MR.</p

Buying Years to Extinction: Is Compensatory Mitigation for Marine Bycatch a Sufficient Conservation Measure for Long-Lived Seabirds?

Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries

Factors affecting survival in Mediterranean populations of the Eurasian eagle owl

The survival rate is a key parameter for population management and the monitoring of populations. Thus, an analysis of survival rate variations and the factors influencing the same is essential for understanding population dynamics. Here, we study the factors determining the survival and the causes of mortality of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in two Spanish Mediterranean populations (Murcia and Seville) where the species has a high population density and breeding success; yet its survival rates and the factors that affect them are unknown. Between 2003 and 2010, 63 breeding owls were captured and radio-tracked. Three monthly (quarterly) survival rates were estimated using known-fate models in the program MARK. The mean overall annual survival rate was 0.776 (95 % CI: 0.677, 0.875). We observed survival differences between sexes, and between the breeding and non-breeding periods, although no overwhelming support was found for any particular model. We concluded that (i) females have a lower survival rate than males, probably due to their larger home ranges, which increase the risk of mortality; (ii) the survival rates of both sexes were lower during the non-breeding period; and (iii) the causes of mortality differed significantly between the two populations, gunshot being the main cause in Seville and electrocution in Murcia.Peer Reviewe

Association of Toll-like receptor 7 variants with life-threatening COVID-19 disease in males: findings from a nested case-control study

Background: Recently, loss-of-function variants in TLR7 were identified in two families in which COVID-19 segregates like an X-linked recessive disorder environmentally conditioned by SARS-CoV-2. We investigated whether the two families represent the tip of the iceberg of a subset of COVID-19 male patients.Methods: This is a nested case-control study in which we compared male participants with extreme phenotype selected from the Italian GEN-COVID cohort of SARS-CoV-2-infected participants (&lt;60y, 79 severe cases versus 77 control cases). We applied the LASSO Logistic Regression analysis, considering only rare variants on young male subsets with extreme phenotype, picking up TLR7 as the most important susceptibility gene.Results: Overall, we found TLR7 deleterious variants in 2.1% of severely affected males and in none of the asymptomatic participants. The functional gene expression profile analysis demonstrated a reduction in TLR7-related gene expression in patients compared with controls demonstrating an impairment in type I and II IFN responses.Conclusion: Young males with TLR7 loss-of-function variants and severe COVID-19 represent a subset of male patients contributing to disease susceptibility in up to 2% of severe COVID-19

Host genetics and COVID-19 severity: increasing the accuracy of latest severity scores by Boolean quantum features

The impact of common and rare variants in COVID-19 host genetics has been widely studied. In particular, in Fallerini et al. (Human genetics, 2022, 141, 147–173), common and rare variants were used to define an interpretable machine learning model for predicting COVID-19 severity. First, variants were converted into sets of Boolean features, depending on the absence or the presence of variants in each gene. An ensemble of LASSO logistic regression models was used to identify the most informative Boolean features with respect to the genetic bases of severity. After that, the Boolean features, selected by these logistic models, were combined into an Integrated PolyGenic Score (IPGS), which offers a very simple description of the contribution of host genetics in COVID-19 severity. IPGS leads to an accuracy of 55%–60% on different cohorts, and, after a logistic regression with both IPGS and age as inputs, it leads to an accuracy of 75%. The goal of this paper is to improve the previous results, using not only the most informative Boolean features with respect to the genetic bases of severity but also the information on host organs involved in the disease. In this study, we generalize the IPGS adding a statistical weight for each organ, through the transformation of Boolean features into “Boolean quantum features,” inspired by quantum mechanics. The organ coefficients were set via the application of the genetic algorithm PyGAD, and, after that, we defined two new integrated polygenic scores ((Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.)). By applying a logistic regression with both IPGS, ((Formula presented.) (or indifferently (Formula presented.)) and age as inputs, we reached an accuracy of 84%–86%, thus improving the results previously shown in Fallerini et al. (Human genetics, 2022, 141, 147–173) by a factor of 10%

Ultra-rare RTEL1 gene variants associate with acute severity of COVID-19 and evolution to pulmonary fibrosis as a specific long COVID disorder

Background: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus that caused an ongoing pandemic of a pathology termed Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19). Several studies reported that both COVID-19 and RTEL1 variants are associated with shorter telomere length, but a direct association between the two is not generally acknowledged. Here we demonstrate that up to 8.6% of severe COVID-19 patients bear RTEL1 ultra-rare variants, and show how this subgroup can be recognized. Methods: A cohort of 2246 SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects, collected within the GEN-COVID Multicenter study, was used in this work. Whole exome sequencing analysis was performed using the NovaSeq6000 System, and machine learning methods were used for candidate gene selection of severity. A nested study, comparing severely affected patients bearing or not variants in the selected gene, was used for the characterisation of specific clinical features connected to variants in both acute and post-acute phases. Results: Our GEN-COVID cohort revealed a total of 151 patients carrying at least one RTEL1 ultra-rare variant, which was selected as a specific acute severity feature. From a clinical point of view, these patients showed higher liver function indices, as well as increased CRP and inflammatory markers, such as IL-6. Moreover, compared to control subjects, they present autoimmune disorders more frequently. Finally, their decreased diffusion lung capacity for carbon monoxide after six months of COVID-19 suggests that RTEL1 variants can contribute to the development of SARS-CoV-2-elicited lung fibrosis. Conclusion: RTEL1 ultra-rare variants can be considered as a predictive marker of COVID-19 severity, as well as a marker of pathological evolution in pulmonary fibrosis in the post-COVID phase. This notion can be used for a rapid screening in hospitalized infected people, for vaccine prioritization, and appropriate follow-up assessment for subjects at risk. Trial Registration NCT04549831 (www.clinicaltrial.org