Bayesian statistics in the design and analysis of cluster randomised controlled trials and their reporting quality: a methodological systematic review

Background In a cluster randomised controlled trial (CRCT), randomisation units are “clusters” such as schools or GP practices. This has methodological implications for study design and statistical analysis, since clustering often leads to correlation between observations which, if not accounted for, can lead to spurious conclusions of efficacy/effectiveness. Bayesian methodology offers a flexible, intuitive framework to deal with such issues, but its use within CRCT design and analysis appears limited. This review aims to explore and quantify the use of Bayesian methodology in the design and analysis of CRCTs, and appraise the quality of reporting against CONSORT guidelines. Methods We sought to identify all reported/published CRCTs that incorporated Bayesian methodology and papers reporting development of new Bayesian methodology in this context, without restriction on publication date or location. We searched Medline and Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Reporting quality metrics according to the CONSORT extension for CRCTs were collected, as well as demographic data, type and nature of Bayesian methodology used, journal endorsement of CONSORT guidelines, and statistician involvement. Results Twenty-seven publications were included, six from an additional hand search. Eleven (40.7%) were reports of CRCT results: seven (25.9%) were primary results papers and four (14.8%) reported secondary results. Thirteen papers (48.1%) reported Bayesian methodological developments, the remaining three (11.1%) compared different methods. Four (57.1%) of the primary results papers described the method of sample size calculation; none clearly accounted for clustering. Six (85.7%) clearly accounted for clustering in the analysis. All results papers reported use of Bayesian methods in the analysis but none in the design or sample size calculation. Conclusions The popularity of the CRCT design has increased rapidly in the last twenty years but this has not been mirrored by an uptake of Bayesian methodology in this context. Of studies using Bayesian methodology, there were some differences in reporting quality compared to CRCTs in general, but this study provided insufficient data to draw firm conclusions. There is an opportunity to further develop Bayesian methodology for the design and analysis of CRCTs in order to expand the accessibility, availability, and, ultimately, use of this approach

Postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy for malignancy: results from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study

Postoperative complications; Pancreatoduodenectomy; RecurrenceComplicaciones postoperatorias; Pancreatoduodenectomía; RecurrenciaComplicacions postoperatòries; Pancreatoduodenectomia; RecurrènciaBackground Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with significant postoperative morbidity. Surgeons should have a sound understanding of the potential complications for consenting and benchmarking purposes. Furthermore, preoperative identification of high-risk patients can guide patient selection and potentially allow for targeted prehabilitation and/or individualized treatment regimens. Using a large multicentre cohort, this study aimed to calculate the incidence of all PD complications and identify risk factors. Method Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study, a retrospective cohort study of PD outcomes (29 centres from 8 countries, 2012–2015). The incidence and severity of all complications was recorded and potential risk factors for morbidity, major morbidity (Clavien–Dindo grade > IIIa), postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage (PPH) and 90-day mortality were investigated. Results Among the 1348 included patients, overall morbidity, major morbidity, POPF, PPH and perioperative death affected 53 per cent (n = 720), 17 per cent (n = 228), 8 per cent (n = 108), 6 per cent (n = 84) and 4 per cent (n = 53), respectively. Following multivariable tests, a high BMI (P = 0.007), an ASA grade > II (P II patients were at increased risk of major morbidity (P < 0.0001), and a raised BMI correlated with a greater risk of POPF (P = 0.001). Conclusion In this multicentre study of PD outcomes, an ASA grade > II was a risk factor for major morbidity and a high BMI was a risk factor for POPF. Patients who are preoperatively identified to be high risk may benefit from targeted prehabilitation or individualized treatment regimens

Adding web-based support to exercise referral schemes improves symptoms of depression in people with elevated depressive symptoms:A secondary analysis of the e-coachER randomised controlled trial

Background: Exercise referral schemes (ERS) reduce depression but the additional effect on mental health from web-based behavioural support is unknown. The e-coachER trial reported no effect of augmenting usual ERS with theory-driven web-based behavioural support on moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) at 12 months for patients with chronic physical and mental health conditions. The present study reports the effects of the e-coachER intervention on depression, anxiety and MVPA only among participants with elevated depressive symptoms and investigates whether these were mediated by changes in MVPA and hypothesised cognitive and behavioural processes. Methods: Of the original 450 adults recruited into the e-coachER trial, 205 had at least mild depression, based on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and were included in the present analysis. Data collected included the HADS, accelerometer measured and self-reported MVPA and survey process measures on physical activity action planning, self-monitoring and goal reviewing, and perceived importance, confidence, competence, autonomy and support. Linear mixed models were used to compare groups for change in depression and anxiety at 4 and 12 months using intention-to-treat complete case analysis, controlling for baseline. We also examined whether changes in physical activity and process variables at 4 months mediated changes in depression and anxiety at 12 months. Results: Of the 205 participants, 138 (67%) provided follow-up data at four months and 126 (61%) at 12 months. For those that provided follow-up data, those randomised to e-coachER reported improved levels of depression (−1.36, 95% CI: −2.55 to −0.18) but not anxiety, or MVPA, compared with controls at four months. No differences were observed at 12 months for depression, anxiety or MVPA. Intervention effects on accelerometer-measured or self-reported MVPA did not mediate improvements in depression or anxiety. However, intervention effects on confidence, competence and self-monitoring at four months significantly mediated the reduction in depression scores at four months. Intervention effects on competence and self-monitoring at four months also significantly mediated improvements in anxiety scores at four months. Interpretation: Adding web-based support to usual ERS leads to reductions in depression but not anxiety at four months. Changes in depression and anxiety were influenced by changing people's motivational regulations toward physical activity. The benefit of adding web-based support to usual ERS on mental health appears to be from increasing a sense of confidence, competence and self-monitoring rather than from increasing physical activity in people with elevated depression. ERS should focus more on strengthening motivational regulations than just doing more exercise. Trial registration: ISRCTN15644451.</p

Adding web-based support to exercise referral schemes improves symptoms of depression in people with elevated depressive symptoms:A secondary analysis of the e-coachER randomised controlled trial

Background: Exercise referral schemes (ERS) reduce depression but the additional effect on mental health from web-based behavioural support is unknown. The e-coachER trial reported no effect of augmenting usual ERS with theory-driven web-based behavioural support on moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) at 12 months for patients with chronic physical and mental health conditions. The present study reports the effects of the e-coachER intervention on depression, anxiety and MVPA only among participants with elevated depressive symptoms and investigates whether these were mediated by changes in MVPA and hypothesised cognitive and behavioural processes. Methods: Of the original 450 adults recruited into the e-coachER trial, 205 had at least mild depression, based on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and were included in the present analysis. Data collected included the HADS, accelerometer measured and self-reported MVPA and survey process measures on physical activity action planning, self-monitoring and goal reviewing, and perceived importance, confidence, competence, autonomy and support. Linear mixed models were used to compare groups for change in depression and anxiety at 4 and 12 months using intention-to-treat complete case analysis, controlling for baseline. We also examined whether changes in physical activity and process variables at 4 months mediated changes in depression and anxiety at 12 months. Results: Of the 205 participants, 138 (67%) provided follow-up data at four months and 126 (61%) at 12 months. For those that provided follow-up data, those randomised to e-coachER reported improved levels of depression (−1.36, 95% CI: −2.55 to −0.18) but not anxiety, or MVPA, compared with controls at four months. No differences were observed at 12 months for depression, anxiety or MVPA. Intervention effects on accelerometer-measured or self-reported MVPA did not mediate improvements in depression or anxiety. However, intervention effects on confidence, competence and self-monitoring at four months significantly mediated the reduction in depression scores at four months. Intervention effects on competence and self-monitoring at four months also significantly mediated improvements in anxiety scores at four months. Interpretation: Adding web-based support to usual ERS leads to reductions in depression but not anxiety at four months. Changes in depression and anxiety were influenced by changing people's motivational regulations toward physical activity. The benefit of adding web-based support to usual ERS on mental health appears to be from increasing a sense of confidence, competence and self-monitoring rather than from increasing physical activity in people with elevated depression. ERS should focus more on strengthening motivational regulations than just doing more exercise. Trial registration: ISRCTN15644451.</p

Impact of influenza vaccination on amoxicillin prescriptions in older adults: A retrospective cohort study using primary care data

Background: Bacterial infections of the upper and lower respiratory tract are a frequent complication of influenza and contribute to the widespread use of antibiotics. Influenza vaccination may help reduce both appropriate and inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics. Electronic health records provide a rich source of information for assessing secondary effects of influenza vaccination. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study to estimate effects of influenza vaccine on antibiotic (amoxicillin) prescription in the elderly based on data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The introduction of UK policy to recommend the influenza vaccine to older adults in 2000 led to a substantial increase in uptake, creating a natural experiment. Of 259,753 eligible patients that were unvaccinated in 1999 and aged≥65y by January 2000, 88,519 patients received influenza vaccination in 2000. These were propensity score matched 1:1 to unvaccinated patients. Time-to-amoxicillin was analysed using the Prior Event Rate Ratio (PERR) Pairwise method to address bias from time-invariant measured and unmeasured confounders. A simulation study and negative control outcome were used to help strengthen the validity of results. Results: Compared to unvaccinated patients, those from the vaccinated group were more likely to be prescribed amoxicillin in the year prior to vaccination: hazard ratio (HR) 1.90 (95% confidence interval 1.83, 1.98). Following vaccination, the vaccinated group were again more likely to be prescribed amoxicillin, HR 1.64 (1.58,1.71). After adjusting for prior differences between the two groups using PERR Pairwise, overall vaccine effectiveness was 0.86 (0.81, 0.92). Additional analyses suggested that provided data meet the PERR assumptions, these estimates were robust. Conclusions: Once differences between groups were taken into account, influenza vaccine had a beneficial effect, lowering the frequency of amoxicillin prescribing in the vaccinated group. Ensuring successful implementation of national programmes of vaccinating older adults against influenza may help contribute to reducing antibiotic resistance

Real-world effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in older adults: Cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Background: The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) is recommended for UK older adults, but how age moderates effectiveness is unclear. Methods: Three annual cohorts of primary-care patients aged≥65y from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink selected from 2003–5 created a natural experiment (n = 324,804), reflecting the staged introduction of the vaccine. The outcome was symptoms consistent with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia (CAP) requiring antibiotics or hospitalisation. We used the prior event rate ratio (PERR) approach to address bias from unmeasured confounders. Results: Vaccinated patients had higher rates of CAP in the year before vaccination than their controls, indicating the potential for confounding bias. After adjustment for confounding using the prior event rate ratio (PERR) method, PPV23 was estimated to be effective against CAP for two years after vaccination in all age sub-groups with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 0.86 (0.80 to 0.93), 0.74 (0.65 to 0.85) and 0.65 (0.57 to 0.74) in patients aged 65–74, 75–79 and 80+ respectively in the 2005 cohort. Age moderated the effect of vaccination with predicted risk reductions of 8% at 65y and 29% at 80y. Conclusions: PPV23 is moderately effective at reducing CAP among UK patients aged≥65y, in the two years after vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness is maintained, and may increase, in the oldest age groups in step with increasing susceptibility to CAP

Adjusting for unmeasured confounding in nonrandomized longitudinal studies: a methodological review

OBJECTIVE: Motivated by recent calls to use electronic health records for research, we reviewed the application and development of methods for addressing the bias from unmeasured confounding in longitudinal data. DESIGN: Methodological review of existing literature SETTING: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for articles addressing the threat to causal inference from unmeasured confounding in nonrandomised longitudinal health data through quasi-experimental analysis. RESULTS: Among the 121 studies included for review, 84 used instrumental variable analysis (IVA), of which 36 used lagged or historical instruments. Difference-in-differences (DiD) and fixed effects (FE) models were found in 29 studies. Five of these combined IVA with DiD or FE to try to mitigate for time-dependent confounding. Other less frequently used methods included prior event rate ratio adjustment, regression discontinuity nested within pre-post studies, propensity score calibration, perturbation analysis and negative control outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Well-established econometric methods such as DiD and IVA are commonly used to address unmeasured confounding in non-randomised, longitudinal studies, but researchers often fail to take full advantage of available longitudinal information. A range of promising new methods have been developed, but further studies are needed to understand their relative performance in different contexts before they can be recommended for widespread use

A process evaluation, with mediation analysis, of a web-based intervention to augment primary care exercise referral schemes: the e-coachER randomised controlled trial

Background: The e-coachER trial aimed to determine whether adding web-based behavioural support to exercise referral schemes (ERS) increased long-term device-measured physical activity (PA) for patients with chronic conditions, compared to ERS alone, within a randomised controlled trial. This study explores the mechanisms of action of the e-coachER intervention using measures of the behaviour change processes integral to the intervention’s logic model. Methods: Four hundred fifty adults with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, osteoarthritis or history of depression referred to an ERS were recruited in Plymouth, Birmingham and Glasgow. The e-coachER intervention comprising 7-Steps to Health was aligned with Self-Determination Theory and mapped against evidence-based behaviour change techniques (BCTs). Participants completed questionnaires at 0, 4, and 12 months to assess PA and self-reported offline engagement with core BCTs in day-to-day life (including action planning and self-monitoring) and beliefs relating to PA (including perceived importance, confidence, competence, autonomy and support). We compared groups at 4 and 12 months, controlling for baseline measures and other covariates. Mediation analysis using the product of coefficients method was used to determine if changes in process variables mediated intervention effects on moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) recorded by accelerometer and self-report at 4- and 12-months. Results: The internal reliability (Cronbach’s alpha) for all multi-item scales was &gt; 0.77. At 4-months, those randomised to e-coachER reported higher levels of PA beliefs relating to importance (1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42 to 1.61, p = 0.001), confidence (1.28, 95% CI: 0.57 to 1.98, p &lt; 0.001), competence (1.61, 95% CI: .68 to 2.54, p = 0.001), availability of support (0.77, 95% CI: 0.07 to 1.48, p = 0.031), use of action planning (1.54, 95% CI: 0.23 to 2.85, p = 0.021) and use of self-monitoring (0.76, 95% CI: 0.19 to 1.32, p = 0.009) compared to ERS alone. There were no intervention effects on autonomous beliefs or perceived frequency of support, compared to ERS alone. At the 12-month follow-up, participants belief in the importance of PA was the only process measure to remain significantly higher in the e-coachER group when compared to ERS alone (0.75, 95% CI: 0.05 to 1.45). Intervention effects on perceived importance (2.52, 95% CI: 0.45 to 5.39), action planning (1.56, 95% CI: 0.10 to 3.54) and self-monitoring (1.92, 95% CI: 0.21 to 4.33) at 4-months significantly mediated change in accelerometer measured MVPA at 12-months (recorded in ≥ 10-min bouts). Conclusions: e-coachER led to some short-term changes in most process outcomes. Some of these processes also appeared to mediate e-coachER effects on changes in accelerometer measured MVPA. Further work should be carried out to understand how best to design and implement theoretically underpinned web-based physical activity promotion interventions within ERS. Trial registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN15644451. Registered 12 February 2015

Common genetic variation drives molecular heterogeneity in human iPSCs.

Technology utilizing human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS cells) has enormous potential to provide improved cellular models of human disease. However, variable genetic and phenotypic characterization of many existing iPS cell lines limits their potential use for research and therapy. Here we describe the systematic generation, genotyping and phenotyping of 711 iPS cell lines derived from 301 healthy individuals by the Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells Initiative. Our study outlines the major sources of genetic and phenotypic variation in iPS cells and establishes their suitability as models of complex human traits and cancer. Through genome-wide profiling we find that 5-46% of the variation in different iPS cell phenotypes, including differentiation capacity and cellular morphology, arises from differences between individuals. Additionally, we assess the phenotypic consequences of genomic copy-number alterations that are repeatedly observed in iPS cells. In addition, we present a comprehensive map of common regulatory variants affecting the transcriptome of human pluripotent cells

Water hammer with column separation: A historical review

Column separation refers to the breaking of liquid columns in fully filled pipelines. This may occur in a water-hammer event when the pressure in a pipeline drops to the vapor pressure at specific locations such as closed ends, high points or knees (changes in pipe slope). The liquid columns are separated by a vapor cavity that grows and diminishes according to the dynamics of the system. The collision of two liquid columns, or of one liquid column with a closed end, may cause a large and nearly instantaneous rise in pressure. This pressure rise travels through the entire pipeline and forms a severe load for hydraulic machinery, individual pipes and supporting structures. The situation is even worse: in one water-hammer event many repetitions of cavity formation and collapse may occur. This paper reviews water hammer with column separation from the discovery of the phenomenon in the late 19th century, the recognition of its danger in the 1930s, the development of numerical methods in the 1960s and 1970s, to the standard models used in commercial software packages in the late 20th century. A comprehensive survey of laboratory tests and field measurements is given. The review focuses on transient vaporous cavitation. Gaseous cavitation and steam condensation are beyond the scope of the paper. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.A. Bergant, A.R. Simpson, and A.S. Tijsselinghttp://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622877/description#descriptio