Diversification of flowering plants in space and time

The rapid diversification and high species richness of flowering plants is regarded as ‘Darwin’s second abominable mystery’. Today the global spatiotemporal pattern of plant diversification remains elusive. Using a newly generated genus-level phylogeny and global distribution data for 14,244 flowering plant genera, we describe the diversification dynamics of angiosperms through space and time. Our analyses show that diversification rates increased throughout the early Cretaceous and then slightly decreased or remained mostly stable until the end of the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago. After that, diversification rates increased again towards the present. Younger genera with high diversification rates dominate temperate and dryland regions, whereas old genera with low diversification dominate the tropics. This leads to a negative correlation between spatial patterns of diversification and genus diversity. Our findings suggest that global changes since the Cenozoic shaped the patterns of flowering plant diversity and support an emerging consensus that diversification rates are higher outside the tropics

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Dialogue in Identity-Based Conflict (Study of Intergroup-Dialogue with University Students)

An individual\u27s struggle with self, which consists of personal identity and social identity, can create both intra- and interpersonal conflict. In this study, I explored how such struggles inform identity-based conflict and how such conflicts are addressed by intergroup dialogue. A dialogue was conducted with University students, consisting of discussions about participants\u27 struggles with self and social identity. These conversations were analyzed using a mixed methods and content analysis approach. The study revealed that identities such as gender play significant roles in creating conflict within self and with others. National origin, race, and ethnicity also affect personal identity; however, these identities have greater influence on participants\u27 relationships with others. Four different stages of dialogue were crucial in determining changes in the perceptions of participants. It was learned that dialogue helped participants to give new meaning to their identities. Individual self --personal identity--defines each person\u27s ability to understand others, not the social identity. Participants reported their level of trust, openness, and willingness to engage with people not from their own identity group increased and improved because of their participation in the dialogue. Therefore, dialogue can be a valuable tool to understand and transform identity-based conflicts

SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES USING WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE METHOD IN JUMRE KHOLA WATERSHED OF PYUTHAN DISTRICT, NEPAL

<p>The world's development infrastructure is at risk from landslides and their consequences in many areas across the globe. There is evidence that landslide disaster is increasing in developing countries. Lesser Himalaya of Nepal is highly susceptible for landslide and various people lose their life and property each year due to landslide. The main aim of this study was to prepare 1) to identify the specific characteristics of landslides in Jumre Khola watershed. 2) To relate the rainfall intensity with landslides distribution in Jumre Khola watershed. & 3) To prepare landslide susceptibility map of Jumre Khola watershed. For this, a detailed landslide inventory was prepared by field survey and Google Earth imagery interpretation. This inventory map was separated into two groups for training the model and validating the result. A landslide susceptibility maps was developed by WOE model. Finally, validation of the model was done by using the success rate curve analysis. The verification result showed that the model performed very well with the success rate of 86.79%. The generalized linear model was performed between landslide and rainfall to know if there is significant relationship between landslide and rainfall. The Jumre Khola watershed is selected for the present study due to the presence of a large number of landslides in the region as well as due tothe presence of huge amount of settlement in the mountain slopes and the river valley that are in high risk of landslides. The produced susceptibility map can be useful for general land-use planning, as well as it can provide information to the planners for the adaptation of appropriate mitigating measures for landside in the Jumre Khola watershed.</p&gt

Factors Influencing Employment Decisions Among Immigrants Caring for a Child with Special Health Care Needs

Immigrant parents may struggle to secure and maintain employment if they raise children with disabilities. The current study examines data from immigrant parents responding to the 2018 National Survey of Children’s Health, including 618 raising children with special health care needs (CSHCN) and 2937 parenting children needing typical care. Parents of CSHCN had higher levels of both aggravation and resilience, but less access to a medical home than parents with typical care responsibilities. Immigrants were less likely to change jobs, but more likely to cut back work hours, or quit work, if they had CSHCNs lacking a medical home, missing more school days, and living in unsafe neighborhoods. Parents of CHSHNs also spent substantial time coordinating care and providing health care at home. Results indicate the need for service providers to connect immigrant families with CSHCNs with culturally supportive organizations that can help them handle family responsibilities while maintaining employment

Geographical patterns in phylogenetic diversity of Chinese woody plants and its application for conservation planning

Aim Biodiversity hotspots are widely used as conservation priorities to preserve the tree of life. However, many conservation practices identify biodiversity hotspots without considering phylogenetic diversity (PD), which reflects total evolutionary history and feature diversity of a region. Moreover, conservation planning rarely distinguishes between neo- and palaeo-biodiversity hotspots despite their differences. Here, we (a) estimated large-scale patterns in PD of woody plants, (b) identified neo- and palaeo-biodiversity hotspots and (c) demonstrated their implication in conservation planning, with special focus on Hengduan Mountains and southern China. Location China. Methods Distributions of 11,405 woody species from the Atlas of Woody Plants in China were updated and were transformed into a grid of 50 x 50 km(2). By integrating distribution maps with a genus-level phylogeny of angiosperms, we estimated Faith's PD of each grid cell and evaluated the contribution of species relatedness to PD at given levels of species diversity (i.e. standardized PD, sPD) using regressions and three null models. Then, we identified areas with significantly lower or higher sPD than expected as neo- and palaeo-hotspots and estimated the coverage of protected areas in these regions. Results Species diversity and PD decreased towards the north. Southern China had high species diversity, PD and sPD, while Hengduan Mountains had high species diversity and PD but low sPD. The coverage of protected areas in southern China was less than half of that in Hengduan Mountains and entire China. Main conclusions Our results identified Hengduan Mountains as a neo-hotspot and southern China as a palaeo-hotspot, highlighting their importance for biodiversity conservation. Compared to Hengduan Mountains, southern China has low coverage of protected areas, which calls for more conservation attention. Our study demonstrates a way of incorporating the phylogenetic component in the identification of neo- and palaeo-hotspots, and hence of achieving a more complete perception of biodiversity patterns for conserving the tree of life.ISSN:1366-9516ISSN:1472-464

Drivers of large‐scale geographical variation in sexual systems of woody plants

Aim: Sexual systems strongly influence angiosperm evolution and play important roles in community assembly and species responses to climate change. However, geographical variation in proportions of different sexual systems (dioecy, monoecy and hermaphroditism) in response to changes in climate, life‐history traits and evolutionary age remains poorly understood. Here, we map the geographical variation in proportions of different sexual systems and hypothesize that the prevalence of hermaphrodites increases with aridity owing to their advantages in colonizing harsh environments, whereas dioecy is most successful in humid regions with tall‐canopy vegetation and old floras. Location: China. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Woody angiosperms. Methods: Using data on sexual systems and distributions of 10,449 woody species in China, we estimated the proportions of different sexual systems in local floras (50 km × 50 km grid cells). Spatial linear models, phylogenetic general linear models and structural equation models were used to compare the relative influences of climate, plant height and evolutionary age on geographical variation in proportions of different sexual systems. Results: We found contrasting geographical patterns in the proportions of different sexual systems. The proportions of dioecy and monoecy increased with plant height and were highest in humid regions with older floras, whereas that of hermaphroditism decreased with plant height and was highest in arid regions with younger floras. Plant height was the strongest correlate of sexual system frequency. Climate influenced sexual system frequency both directly and indirectly via its effects on plant height. Main conclusions: Our study provides the first continuous map of sexual system composition in woody floras over a large spatial scale. Our findings suggest that mature plant height, reflecting plant longevity, dominates geographical variation in sexual systems and that the proportions of different sexual systems in local floras might reflect their correlated evolution with traits in response to climate changes

Niche conservatism and elevated diversification shape species diversity in drylands: evidence from Zygophyllaceae

The integrated contributions of climate and macroevolutionary processes to global patterns of species diversity are still controversial in spite of a long history of studies. The niche conservatism hypothesis and the net diversification rate hypothesis have gained wide attention in recent literature. Many studies have tested these two hypotheses for woody species in humid forests; however, the determinants of species diversity patterns for arid-adapted plants remain largely ignored. Here, using a molecular phylogeny and the global distributions of Zygophyllaceae, a typical arid-adapted plant family, we assessed the effects of contemporary climate and net diversification rates on species diversity patterns in drylands. We found the variables representing water availability to be the best predictors for Zygophyllaceae diversity. Specifically, Zygophyllaceae species diversity significantly decreased with the increase in water availability, probably owing to phylogenetic conservatism of water-related niches. The net diversification rates of Zygophyllaceae accelerated sharply in the recent 10 Myr, coinciding roughly with the period of global aridification. The species diversity of Zygophyllaceae significantly increased with the increase in mean net diversification rates per geographical unit, especially in the OldWorld, supporting the net diversification rate hypothesis. Our study provides a case exploring climatic and evolutionary mechanisms of dryland species diversity patterns, and suggests that the conservatism in water-related niches and elevated net diversification rates in drylands may have jointly determined the global patterns of dryland species diversity