Cause-of-death ascertainment for deaths that occur outside hospitals in Thailand: application of verbal autopsy methods

Background: Ascertainment of cause for deaths that occur in the absence of medical attention is a significant problem in many countries, including Thailand, where more than 50% of such deaths are registered with ill-defined causes. Routine implementation of standardized, rigorous verbal autopsy methods is a potential solution. This paper reports findings from field research conducted to develop, test, and validate the use of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in Thailand.Methods: International verbal autopsy methods were first adapted to the Thai context and then implemented to ascertain causes of death for a nationally representative sample of 11,984 deaths that occurred in Thailand in 2005. Causes of death were derived from completed VA questionnaires by physicians trained in ICD-based cause-of-death certification. VA diagnoses were validated in the sample of hospital deaths for which reference diagnoses were available from medical record review. Validated study findings were used to adjust VA-based causes of death derived for deaths in the study sample that had occurred outside hospitals. Results were used to estimate cause-specific mortality patterns for deaths outside hospitals in Thailand in 2005.Results: VA-based causes of death were derived for 6,328 out of 7,340 deaths in the study sample that had occurred outside hospitals, constituting the verification arm of the study. The use of VA resulted in large-scale reassignment of deaths from ill-defined categories to specific causes of death. The validation study identified that VA tends to overdiagnose important causes such as diabetes, liver cancer, and tuberculosis, while undercounting deaths from HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, genitourinary (essential renal), and digestive system disorders.Conclusions: The use of standard VA methods adapted to Thailand enabled a plausible assessment of cause-specific mortality patterns and a substantial reduction of ill-defined diagnoses. Validation studies enhance the utility of findings from the application of verbal autopsy. Regular implementation of VA in Thailand could accelerate development of the quality and utility of vital registration data for deaths outside hospitals

Designing verbal autopsy studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Verbal autopsy analyses are widely used for estimating cause-specific mortality rates (CSMR) in the vast majority of the world without high-quality medical death registration. Verbal autopsies -- survey interviews with the caretakers of imminent decedents -- stand in for medical examinations or physical autopsies, which are infeasible or culturally prohibited.</p> <p>Methods and Findings</p> <p>We introduce methods, simulations, and interpretations that can improve the design of automated, data-derived estimates of CSMRs, building on a new approach by King and Lu (2008). Our results generate advice for choosing symptom questions and sample sizes that is easier to satisfy than existing practices. For example, most prior effort has been devoted to searching for symptoms with high sensitivity and specificity, which has rarely if ever succeeded with multiple causes of death. In contrast, our approach makes this search irrelevant because it can produce unbiased estimates even with symptoms that have very low sensitivity and specificity. In addition, the new method is optimized for survey questions caretakers can easily answer rather than questions physicians would ask themselves. We also offer an automated method of weeding out biased symptom questions and advice on how to choose the number of causes of death, symptom questions to ask, and observations to collect, among others.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With the advice offered here, researchers should be able to design verbal autopsy surveys and conduct analyses with greatly reduced statistical biases and research costs.</p

Validity of Verbal Autopsy Procedures for Determining Malaria Deaths in Different Epidemiological Settings in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) procedures can be used to estimate cause of death in settings with inadequate vital registries. However, the sensitivity of VA for determining malaria-specific mortality may be low, and may vary with transmission intensity. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of VA procedures as compared to hospital medical records for determining cause of death in children under five in three different malaria transmission settings in Uganda, including Tororo (high), Kampala (medium), and Kisoro (low). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Caretakers of children who died in participating hospitals were interviewed using a standardized World Health Organization questionnaire. Medical records from the child's hospitalization were also reviewed. Causes of death based on the VA questionnaires and the medical records were assigned independently by physician reviewers and then compared. A total of 719 cases were included in the final analysis, 67 in Tororo, 600 in Kampala, and 52 in Kisoro. Malaria was classified as the underlying or contributory cause of death by review of medical records in 33 deaths in Tororo, 60 in Kampala, and 0 in Kisoro. The sensitivity of VA procedures for determining malaria deaths in Tororo was 61% (95% CI 44-78%) and 50% in Kampala (95% CI 37-63%). Specificity for determining malaria deaths in Tororo and Kampala was high (>88%), but positive predictive value varied widely, from 83% in Tororo to 34% in Kampala (difference 49%, 95% CI 31-67, p<0.001). The difference between the cause-specific mortality fraction for malaria as determined by VA procedures and medical records was -11% in Tororo, +5% in Kampala, and +14% in Kisoro. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that these VA methods have an acceptable level of diagnostic accuracy for determining malaria deaths at the population level in high and medium transmission areas, but not in low transmission areas

Fatal Injuries in the Slums of Nairobi and their Risk Factors: Results from a Matched Case-Control Study

Injuries contribute significantly to the rising morbidity and mortality attributable to non-communicable diseases in the developing world. Unfortunately, active injury surveillance is lacking in many developing countries, including Kenya. This study aims to describe and identify causes of and risk factors for fatal injuries in two slums in Nairobi city using a demographic surveillance system framework. The causes of death are determined using verbal autopsies. We used a nested case-control study design with all deaths from injuries between 2003 and 2005 as cases. Two controls were randomly selected from the non-injury deaths over the same period and individually matched to each case on age and sex. We used conditional logistic regression modeling to identity individual- and community-level factors associated with fatal injuries. Intentional injuries accounted for about 51% and unintentional injuries accounted for 49% of all injuries. Homicides accounted for 91% of intentional injuries and 47% of all injury-related deaths. Firearms (23%) and road traffic crashes (22%) were the leading single causes of deaths due to injuries. About 15% of injuries were due to substance intoxication, particularly alcohol, which in this community comes from illicit brews and is at times contaminated with methanol. Results suggest that in the pervasively unsafe and insecure environment that characterizes the urban slums, ethnicity, residence, and area level factors contribute significantly to the risk of injury-related mortality

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians

A global framework for action to improve the primary care response to chronic non-communicable diseases: a solution to a neglected problem.

BACKGROUND: Although in developing countries the burden of morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases has often overshadowed that due to chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), there is evidence now of a shift of attention to NCDs. DISCUSSION: Decreasing the chronic NCD burden requires a two-pronged approach: implementation of the multisectoral policies aimed at decreasing population-level risks for NCDs, and effective and affordable delivery of primary care interventions for patients with chronic NCDs. The primary care response to common NCDs is often unstructured and inadequate. We therefore propose a programmatic, standardized approach to the delivery of primary care interventions for patients with NCDs, with a focus on hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic airflow obstruction, and obesity. The benefits of this approach will extend to patients with related conditions, e.g. those with chronic kidney disease caused by hypertension or diabetes. This framework for a "public health approach" is informed by experience of scaling up interventions for chronic infectious diseases (tuberculosis and HIV). The lessons learned from progress in rolling out these interventions include the importance of gaining political commitment, developing a robust strategy, delivering standardised interventions, and ensuring rigorous monitoring and evaluation of progress towards defined targets. The goal of the framework is to reduce the burden of morbidity, disability and premature mortality related to NCDs through a primary care strategy which has three elements: 1) identify and address modifiable risk factors, 2) screen for common NCDs and 3) and diagnose, treat and follow-up patients with common NCDs using standard protocols. The proposed framework for NCDs borrows the same elements as those developed for tuberculosis control, comprising a goal, strategy and targets for NCD control, a package of interventions for quality care, key operations for national implementation of these interventions (political commitment, case-finding among people attending primary care services, standardised diagnostic and treatment protocols, regular drug supply, and systematic monitoring and evaluation), and indicators to measure progress towards increasing the impact of primary care interventions on chronic NCDs. The framework needs evaluation, then adaptation in different settings. SUMMARY: A framework for a programmatic "public health approach" has the potential to improve on the current unstructured approach to primary care of people with chronic NCDs. Research to establish the cost, value and feasibility of implementing the framework will pave the way for international support to extend the benefit of this approach to the millions of people worldwide with chronic NCDs

Effects on the estimated cause-specific mortality fraction of providing physician reviewers with different formats of verbal autopsy data

Background: The process of data collection and the methods used to assign the cause of death vary significantly among different verbal autopsy protocols, but there are few data to describe the consequences of the choices made. The aim of this study was to objectively define the impact of the format of data presented to physician reviewers on the cause-specific mortality fractions defined by a verbal autopsy-based mortality-surveillance system.Methods: Verbal autopsies were done by primary health care workers for all deaths between October 2006 and September 2007 in a community in rural Andhra Pradesh, India (total population about 180,162). Each questionnaire had a structured section, composed of a series of check boxes, and a free-text section, in which a narrative description of the events leading to death was recorded. For each death, a physician coder was presented first with one section and then the other in random order with a 20- to 40-day interval between. A cause of death was recorded for each data format at the level of ICD 10 chapter headings or else the death was documented as unclassified. After another 20- to 40-day interval, both the structured and free-text sections of the questionnaire were presented together and an index cause of death was assigned.Results: In all, 1,407 verbal autopsies were available for analysis, representing 94% of all deaths recorded in the population that year. An index cause of death was assigned using the combined data for 1,190 with the other 217 remaining unclassified. The observed cause-specific mortality fractions were the same regardless of whether the structured, free-text or combined data sources were used. At the individual level, the assignments made using the structured format matched the index in 1,012 (72%) of cases with a kappa statistic of 0.66. For the free-text format, the corresponding figures were 989 (70%) and 0.64.Conclusions: The format of the verbal autopsy data used to assign a cause of death did not substantively influence the pattern of mortality estimated. Substantially abbreviated and simplified verbal autopsy questionnaires might provide robust information about high-level mortality patterns. © 2011 Joshi et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Injury morbidity in an urban and a rural area in Tanzania: an epidemiological survey

BACKGROUND: Injuries are becoming a major health problem in developing countries. Few population based studies have been carried out in African countries. We examined the pattern of nonfatal injuries and associated risk factors in an urban and rural setting of Tanzania. METHODS: A population-based household survey was conducted in 2002. Participants were selected by cluster sampling. A total of 8,188 urban and 7,035 rural residents of all ages participated in the survey. All injuries reported among all household members in the year preceding the interview and resulting in one or more days of restricted activity were included in the analyis. RESULTS: A total of 206 (2.5%) and 303 (4.3%) persons reported to have been injured in the urban and rural area respectively. Although the overall incidence was higher in the rural area, the incidence of major injuries (≥ 30 disability days) was similar in both areas. Males were at a higher risk of having an injury than females. Rural residents were more likely to experience injuries due to falls (OR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1 – 2.3) and cuts (OR = 4.3; 95% CI = 3.0 – 6.2) but had a lower risk of transport injuries. The most common causes of injury in the urban area were transport injuries and falls. In the rural area, cuts and stabs, of which two thirds were related to agriculture, formed the most common cause. Age was an important risk factor for certain types of injuries. Poverty levels were not significantly associated with experiencing a nonfatal injury. CONCLUSION: The patterns of injury differ in urban and rural areas partly as a reflection of livelihoods and infrastructure. Rural residents are at a higher overall injury risk than urban residents. This may be important in the development of injury prevention strategies

Performance of InterVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards

Background: InterVA is a widely disseminated tool for cause of death attribution using information from verbal autopsies. Several studies have attempted to validate the concordance and accuracy of the tool, but the main limitation of these studies is that they compare cause of death as ascertained through hospital record review or hospital discharge diagnosis with the results of InterVA. This study provides a unique opportunity to assess the performance of InterVA compared to physician-certified verbal autopsies (PCVA) and alternative automated methods for analysis.Methods: Using clinical diagnostic gold standards to select 12,542 verbal autopsy cases, we assessed the performance of InterVA on both an individual and population level and compared the results to PCVA, conducting analyses separately for adults, children, and neonates. Following the recommendation of Murray et al., we randomly varied the cause composition over 500 test datasets to understand the performance of the tool in different settings. We also contrasted InterVA with an alternative Bayesian method, Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the tool.Results: Across all age groups, InterVA performs worse than PCVA, both on an individual and population level. On an individual level, InterVA achieved a chance-corrected concordance of 24.2% for adults, 24.9% for children, and 6.3% for neonates (excluding free text, considering one cause selection). On a population level, InterVA achieved a cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy of 0.546 for adults, 0.504 for children, and 0.404 for neonates. The comparison to SSP revealed four specific characteristics that lead to superior performance of SSP. Increases in chance-corrected concordance are attained by developing cause-by-cause models (2%), using all items as opposed to only the ones that mapped to InterVA items (7%), assigning probabilities to clusters of symptoms (6%), and using empirical as opposed to expert probabilities (up to 8%).Conclusions: Given the widespread use of verbal autopsy for understanding the burden of disease and for setting health intervention priorities in areas that lack reliable vital registrations systems, accurate analysis of verbal autopsies is essential. While InterVA is an affordable and available mechanism for assigning causes of death using verbal autopsies, users should be aware of its suboptimal performance relative to other methods

Classifying perinatal mortality using verbal autopsy: is there a role for nonphysicians?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Because of a physician shortage in many low-income countries, the use of nonphysicians to classify perinatal mortality (stillbirth and early neonatal death) using verbal autopsy could be useful.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To determine the extent to which underlying perinatal causes of deaths assigned by nonphysicians in Guatemala, Pakistan, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo using a verbal autopsy method are concordant with underlying perinatal cause of death assigned by physician panels.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a train-the-trainer model, 13 physicians and 40 nonphysicians were trained to determine cause of death using a standardized verbal autopsy training program. Subsequently, panels of two physicians and individual nonphysicians from this trained cohort independently reviewed verbal autopsy data from a sample of 118 early neonatal deaths and 134 stillbirths. With the cause of death assigned by the physician panel as the reference standard, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated to assess nonphysicians' coding responses. Robustness criteria to assess how well nonphysicians performed were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Causes of early neonatal death and stillbirth assigned by nonphysicians were concordant with physician-assigned causes 47% and 57% of the time, respectively. Tetanus filled robustness criteria for early neonatal death, and cord prolapse filled robustness criteria for stillbirth.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There are significant differences in underlying cause of death as determined by physicians and nonphysicians even when they receive similar training in cause of death determination. Currently, it does not appear that nonphysicians can be used reliably to assign underlying cause of perinatal death using verbal autopsy.</p