Neonate, Infant, and Child Mortality in North Africa and Middle East by Cause: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: During the past three decades, neonate, infant, and child mortality declined in North Africa and Middle East. However, there is substantial heterogeneity in mortality rates across countries. Methods: This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) 2019. We report the number as well as mortality rates for neonates, infants, and children by cause across 21 countries in the region since 1990. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the neonate mortality rate in the region declined from 31.9 (29.8, 34.0) to 12.2 (11.1, 13.3) per 1000 live births. Respective figures for under 5 mortality rates (U5MRs) were 79.1 (75.7, 82.7) in 1990 and 24.4 (22.3, 26.7) per 1000 live births in 2019. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years were due to under 1 year deaths: 75.9% in 1990 and 81.8% in 2019. Mortality rates in males were higher than females. The mortality rate among neonates ranged from 2.4 (2.1, 2.6) per 1000 live births in Bahrain to 25.0 (21.6, 28.4) in Afghanistan in 2019. Similarly, in 2019, the U5MR ranged from 5.0 (4.2–6.0) per 1000 live births in United Arab Emirates to 55.3 (47.9–63.5) in Afghanistan. Neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and lower respiratory infections were the three main causes of neonate, infant, and child mortality in almost all countries in the region. Conclusion: In 2019, most countries in this region have achieved the SDG targets for neonate and child mortality. However, there is still substantial heterogeneity across countries

The global, regional, and national burden of stomach cancer in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2017

Background Stomach cancer is a major health problem in many countries. Understanding the current burden of stomach cancer and the differential trends across various locations is essential for formulating effective preventive strategies. We report on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to stomach cancer in 195 countries and territories from 21 regions between 1990 and 2017. Methods Estimates from GBD 2017 were used to analyse the incidence, mortality, and DALYs due to stomach cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. The rates were standardised to the GBD world population and reported per 100 000 population as age-standardised incidence rates, age-standardised death rates, and age-standardised DALY rates. All estimates were generated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings In 2017, more than 1.22 million (95% UI 1.19-1.25) incident cases of stomach cancer occurred worldwide, and nearly 865 000 people (848 000-885 000) died of stomach cancer, contributing to 19.1 million (18.7-19.6) DALYs. The highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017 were seen in the high-income Asia Pacific (29.5, 28.2-31.0 per 100 000 population) and east Asia (28.6, 27.3-30.0 per 100 000 population) regions, with nearly half of the global incident cases occurring in China. Compared with 1990, in 2017 more than 356 000 more incident cases of stomach cancer were estimated, leading to nearly 96 000 more deaths. Despite the increase in absolute numbers, the worldwide age-standardised rates of stomach cancer (incidence, deaths, and DALYs) have declined since 1990. The drop in the disease burden was associated with improved Socio-demographic Index. Globally, 38.2% (21.1-57.8) of the age-standardised DALYs were attributable to high-sodium diet in both sexes combined, and 24.5% (20.0-28.9) of the age-standardised DALYs were attributable to smoking in males. Interpretation Our findings provide insight into the changing burden of stomach cancer, which is useful in planning local strategies and monitoring their progress. To this end, specific local strategies should be tailored to each country's risk factor profile. Beyond the current decline in age-standardised incidence and death rates, a decrease in the absolute number of cases and deaths will be possible if the burden in east Asia, where currently almost half of the incident cases and deaths occur, is further reduced. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Keywords:GASTRIC-CANCER; HELICOBACTER-PYLORI; UNITED-STATES; STATISTICS; MORTALITY; RISK; EPIDEMIOLOGY; TERRITORIES; PREVALENCE; GUIDELINE

The global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Data about the global, regional, and country-specific variations in the levels and trends of colorectal cancer are required to understand the impact of this disease and the trends in its burden to help policy makers allocate resources. Here we provide a status report on the incidence, mortality, and disability caused by colorectal cancer in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. Methods Vital registration, sample vital registration, verbal autopsy, and cancer registry data were used to generate incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates of colorectal cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. We also determined the association between development levels and colorectal cancer age-standardised DALY rates, and calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. All of the estimates are reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years, with some estimates also presented by sex and 5-year age groups. Findings In 2017, there were 1·8 million (95% UI 1·8–1·9) incident cases of colorectal cancer globally, with an agestandardised incidence rate of 23·2 (22·7–23·7) per 100 000 person-years that increased by 9·5% (4·5–13·5) between 1990 and 2017. Globally, colorectal cancer accounted for 896 000 (876 300–915 700) deaths in 2017, with an agestandardised death rate of 11·5 (11·3–11·8) per 100 000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (–13·5% [–18·4 to –10·0]). Colorectal cancer was also responsible for 19·0 million (18·5–19·5) DALYs globally in 2017, with an age-standardised rate of 235·7 (229·7–242·0) DALYs per 100 000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (–14·5% [–20·4 to –10·3]). Slovakia, the Netherlands, and New Zealand had the highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017. Greenland, Hungary, and Slovakia had the highest age-standardised death rates in 2017. Numbers of incident cases and deaths were higher among males than females up to the ages of 80–84 years, with the highest rates observed in the oldest age group (≥95 years) for both sexes in 2017. There was a non-linear association between the Socio-demographic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index and age-standardised DALY rates. In 2017, the three largest contributors to DALYs at the global level, for both sexes, were diet low in calcium (20·5% [12·9–28·9]), alcohol use (15·2% [12·1–18·3]), and diet low in milk (14·3% [5·1–24·8]). Interpretation There is substantial global variation in the burden of colorectal cancer. Although the overall colorectal cancer age-standardised death rate has been decreasing at the global level, the increasing age-standardised incidence rate in most countries poses a major public health challenge across the world. The results of this study could be useful for policy makers to carry out cost-effective interventions and to reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors, particularly in countries with high incidence or increasing burde

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. Methods We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. Findings In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1.32 million (95% UI 1.27-1.45) deaths (440000 [416 000-518 000; 33.3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66.7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2.4% (2.3-2.6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1.9% (1.8-2.0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21.0 (19.2-22.3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16.5 (15.8-18-1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32.2 [25.8-38.6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10.1 [9.8-10-5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3.7 [3.3-4.0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103.3 [64.4-133.4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10.6 million (10.3-10.9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33.2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54.8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases snore than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. Interpretation Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH

Burden of transport-related injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

Background: Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age.Methods: TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).Results: In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9-6.2) transport-related incident cases in the EMR - a substantial increase from 1990 (2.8 million; UI 2.5-3.1). The age-standardized incidence rate for the EMR in 2017 was 787 (UI 705.5-876.2) per 100000, which has not changed significantly since 1990 (-0.9%; UI -4.7 to 3). These rates differed remarkably between countries, such that Oman (1303.9; UI 1167.3-1441.5) and Palestine (486.5; UI 434.5-545.9) had the highest and lowest age-standardized incidence rates per 100000, respectively. In 2017, there were 185.3 thousand (UI 170.8-200.6) transport-related fatalities in the EMR - a substantial increase since 1990 (140.4 thousand; UI 118.7-156.9). The age-standardized death rate for the EMR in 2017 was 29.5 (UI 27.1-31.9) per 100000, which was 30.5% lower than that found in 1990 (42.5; UI 36.8-47.3). In 2017, Somalia (54; UI 30-77.4) and Lebanon (7.1; UI 4.8-8.6) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardised DALY rate for the EMR in 2017 was 1,528.8 (UI 1412.5-1651.3) per 100000, which was 34.4% lower than that found in 1990 (2,331.3; UI 1,993.1-2,589.9). In 2017, the highest DALY rate was found in Pakistan (3454121; UI 2297890- 4342908) and the lowest was found in Bahrain (8616; UI 7670-9751).Conclusion: The present study shows that while road traffic has become relatively safer (measured by deaths and DALYs per 100000 population), the number of transport-related fatalities in the EMR is growing and needs to be addressed urgently

Multimorbidity and associations with clinical outcomes in a middle-aged population in Iran: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND: As the populations of lower-income and middle-income countries age, multimorbidity is increasing, but there is little information on its long-term consequences. We aimed to show associations between multimorbidity and outcomes of mortality and hospitalisation in Iran, a middle-income country undergoing rapid economic transition. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of longitudinal data collected in the Golestan Cohort Study. Data on demographics, morbidities and lifestyle factors were collected at baseline, and information on hospitalisations or deaths was captured annually. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between baseline multimorbidity and 10-year mortality, Cox-proportional hazard models to measure lifetime risk of mortality and zero-inflation models to investigate the association between hospitalisation and multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was classified as ≥2 conditions or number of conditions. Demographic, lifestyle and socioeconomic variables were included as covariables. RESULTS: The study recruited 50 045 participants aged 40–75 years between 2004 and 2008, 47 883 were available for analysis, 416 (57.3%) were female and 12 736 (27.94%) were multimorbid. The odds of dying at 10 years for multimorbidity defined as ≥2 conditions was 1.99 (95% CI 1.86 to 2.12, p<0.001), and it increased with increasing number of conditions (OR of 3.57; 95% CI 3.12 to 4.08, p<0.001 for ≥4 conditions). The survival analysis showed the hazard of death for those with ≥4 conditions was 3.06 (95% CI 2.74 to 3.43, p<0.001). The number of hospital admissions increased with number of conditions (OR of not being hospitalised of 0.36; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.52, p<0.001, for ≥4 conditions). CONCLUSION: The long-terms effects of multimorbidity on mortality and hospitalisation are similar in this population to those seen in high-income countries

The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data from vital registration systems, vital registration-samples, verbal autopsy records, and cancer registries, combined with relevant modelling, to estimate the mortality, incidence, and burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were estimated and fed into a Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) including risk factors. MIRs were used for mortality and non-fatal modelling. Estimates of DALYs attributable to the main risk factors of oesophageal cancer available in GBD were also calculated. The proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancers was extracted by use of publicly available data, and its variation was examined against SDI, the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, and available risk factors in GBD that are specific for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (eg, unimproved water source and indoor air pollution) and for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease). Findings There were 473 000 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 459 000–485 000) new cases of oesophageal cancer and 436 000 (425 000–448 000) deaths due to oesophageal cancer in 2017. Age-standardised incidence was 5·9 (5·7–6·1) per 100 000 population and age-standardised mortality was 5·5 (5·3–5·6) per 100 000. Oesophageal cancer caused 9·78 million (9·53–10·03) DALYs, with an age-standardised rate of 120 (117–123) per 100 000 population. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised incidence decreased by 22·0% (18·6–25·2), mortality decreased by 29·0% (25·8–32·0), and DALYs decreased by 33·4% (30·4–36·1) globally. However, as a result of population growth and ageing, the total number of new cases increased by 52·3% (45·9–58·9), from 310 000 (300 000–322 000) to 473 000 (459 000–485 000); the number of deaths increased by 40·0% (34·1–46·3), from 311 000 (301 000–323 000) to 436 000 (425 000–448 000); and total DALYs increased by 27·4% (22·1–33·1), from 7·68 million (7·42–7·97) to 9·78 million (9·53–10·03). At the national level, China had the highest number of incident cases (235 000 [223 000–246 000]), deaths (213 000 [203 000–223 000]), and DALYs (4·46 million [4·25–4·69]) in 2017. The highest national-level age-standardised incidence rates in 2017 were observed in Malawi (23·0 [19·4–26·5] per 100 000 population) and Mongolia (18·5 [16·4–20·8] per 100 000). In 2017, age-standardised incidence was 2·7 times higher, mortality 2·9 times higher, and DALYs 3·0 times higher in males than in females. In 2017, a substantial proportion of oesophageal cancer DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (39·0% [35·5–42·2]), alcohol consumption (33·8% [27·3–39·9]), high BMI (19·5% [6·3–36·0]), a diet low in fruits (19·1% [4·2–34·6]), and use of chewing tobacco (7·5% [5·2–9·6]). Countries with a low SDI and HAQ Index and high levels of indoor air pollution had a higher proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancer cases than did countries with a high SDI and HAQ Index and with low levels of indoor air pollution. Interpretation Despite reductions in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates, oesophageal cancer remains a major cause of cancer mortality and burden across the world. Oesophageal cancer is a highly fatal disease, requiring increased primary prevention efforts and, possibly, screening in some high-risk areas. Substantial variation exists in age-standardised incidence rates across regions and countries, for reasons that are unclear.publishedVersio

Nationwide Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes and Associated Risk Factors Among Iranian Adults: Analysis of Data from PERSIAN Cohort Study

Introduction Over the past decades prevalence of diabetes has increased in Iran and other countries. This study aimed to update the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in Iran and to determine associated sociodemographic risk factors, as well as diabetes awareness and control. Methods This is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey that included 163,770 Iranian adults aged 35-70 years, from different ethnic backgrounds, between 2014 and 2020. Diabetes was diagnosed at fasting blood sugar of >= 6.99 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), or receiving blood glucose-lowering treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to detect determinants associated with prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes, as well as predictors of diabetes awareness and glycemic control. Results Sex- and age-standardized prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes was 15.0% (95% CI 12.6-17.3) and 25.4% (18.6-32.1), respectively. Among patients with diabetes, 79.6% (76.2-82.9) were aware of their diabetes. Glycemic control was achieved in 41.2% (37.5-44.8) of patients who received treatment. Older age, obesity, high waist to hip ratio (WHR), and specific ethnic background were associated with a significant risk of diabetes and prediabetes. Higher awareness of diabetes was observed in older patients, married individuals, those with high WHR, and individuals with high wealth score. Moreover, glycemic control was significantly better in women, obese individuals, those with high physical activity, educational attainment, and specific ethnic background. Conclusions The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes is increasing at an alarming rate in Iranian adults. High proportion of uncontrolled patients require particular initiatives to be integrated in the health care system

Prevalence and predictors of low back pain among the Iranian population: Results from the Persian cohort study

Background and objectives: Low back pain (LBP) is a common health condition in populations. Limited large-scale population-based studies evaluated the prevalence and predictors of LBP in developing countries. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and factors associated with LBP among the Iranian population. Methods: We used baseline information from the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in Iran (PERSIAN), including individuals from 16 provinces of Iran. LBP was defined as the history of back pain interfering with daily activities for more than one week during an individual's lifetime. Various factors hypothesized to affect LBP, such as age, sex, marital status, educational status, ethnicity, living area, employment status, history of smoking, body mass index (BMI), physical activity, sleep duration, wealth score, history of joint pain, and history of morning stiffness in the joints were evaluated. Results: In total, 163770 Iranians with a mean age of 49.37 (SD = 9.15) were included in this study, 44.8% of whom were male. The prevalence of LBP was 25.2% among participants. After adjusting for confounders, the female gender [OR:1.244(1.02-1.50)], middle and older ages [OR:1.23(1.10-1.33) and OR:1.13(1.07-1.42), respectively], being overweight or obese [OR:1.13(1.07-1.19) and OR:1.21(1.16-1.27), respectively], former and current smokers (OR:1.25(1.16-1.36) and OR:1.28(1.17-1.39), respectively], low physical activity [OR:1.07 (1.01-1.14)], and short sleep duration [OR: 1.09(1.02-1.17)] were significantly associated with LBP. Conclusion: In this large-scale study, we found the lifetime prevalence of LBP to be lower among the Iranian population in comparison to the global prevalence of LBP; further studies are warranted to evaluate the causality of risk factors on LBP