Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the North Atlantic extratropical winter circulation through increased model resolution

In this study the latest version of the MiKlip decadal hindcast system is analyzed, and the effect of an increased horizontal and vertical resolution on the prediction skill of the extratropical winter circulation is assessed. Four different metrics – the storm track, blocking, cyclone and windstorm frequencies – are analyzed in the North Atlantic and European region. The model bias and the deterministic decadal hindcast skill are evaluated in ensembles of five members in a lower-resolution version (LR, atm: T63L47, ocean: 1.5∘ L40) and a higher-resolution version (HR, atm: T127L95, ocean: 0.4∘ L40) of the MiKlip system based on the Max Planck Institute Earth System model (MPI-ESM). The skill is assessed for the lead winters 2–5 in terms of the anomaly correlation of the quantities' winter averages using initializations between 1978 and 2012. The deterministic predictions are considered skillful if the anomaly correlation is positive and statistically significant. While the LR version shows common shortcomings of lower-resolution climate models, e.g., a storm track that is too zonal and southward displaced as well as a negative bias of blocking frequencies over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the HR version counteracts these biases. Cyclones, i.e., their frequencies and characteristics like strength and lifetime, are particularly better represented in HR. As a result, a chain of significantly improved decadal prediction skill between all four metrics is found with the increase in the spatial resolution. While the skill of the storm track is significantly improved primarily over the main source region of synoptic activity – the North Atlantic Current – the other extratropical quantities experience a significant improvement primarily downstream thereof, i.e., in regions where the synoptic systems typically intensify. Thus, the skill of the cyclone frequencies is significantly improved over the central North Atlantic and northern Europe, the skill of the blocking frequencies is significantly improved over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and eastern Europe, and the skill of the windstorms is significantly improved over Newfoundland and central Europe. Not only is the skill improved with the increase in resolution, but the HR system itself also exhibits significant skill over large areas of the North Atlantic and European sector for all four circulation metrics. These results are particularly promising regarding the high socioeconomic impact of European winter windstorms and blocking situations

Parallel Analysis: a Method for Determining Significant Principal Components

Numerous ecological studies use Principal Components Analysis (PCA) for exploratory analysis and data reduction. Determination of the number of components to retain is the most crucial problem confronting the researcher when using PCA. An incorrect choice may lead to the underextraction of components, but commonly results in overextraction. Of several methods proposed to determine the significance of principal components, Parallel Analysis (PA) has proven consistently accurate in determining the threshold for significant components, variable loadings, and analytical statistics when decomposing a correlation matrix. In this procedure, eigenvalues from a data set prior to rotation are compared with those from a matrix of random values of the same dimensionality (p variables and n samples). PCA eigenvalues from the data greater than PA eigenvalues from the corresponding random data can be retained. All components with eigenvalues below this threshold value should be considered spurious. We illustrate Parallel Analysis on an environmental data set. We reviewed all articles utilizing PCA or Factor Analysis (FA) from 1987 to 1993 from Ecology, Ecological Monographs, Journal of Vegetation Science and Journal of Ecology. Analyses were first separated into those PCA which decomposed a correlation matrix and those PCA which decomposed a covariance matrix. Parallel Analysis (PA) was applied for each PCA/FA found in the literature. Of 39 analyses (in 22 articles), 29 (74.4%) considered no threshold rule, presumably retaining interpretable components. According to the PA results, 26 (66.7%) overextracted components. This overextraction may have resulted in potentially misleading interpretation of spurious components. It is suggested that the routine use of PA in multivariate ordination will increase confidence in the results and reduce the subjective interpretation of supposedly objective methods

Magnetism and domain formation in SU(3)-symmetric multi-species Fermi mixtures

We study the phase diagram of an SU(3)-symmetric mixture of three-component ultracold fermions with attractive interactions in an optical lattice, including the additional effect on the mixture of an effective three-body constraint induced by three-body losses. We address the properties of the system in $D \geq 2$ by using dynamical mean-field theory and variational Monte Carlo techniques. The phase diagram of the model shows a strong interplay between magnetism and superfluidity. In the absence of the three-body constraint (no losses), the system undergoes a phase transition from a color superfluid phase to a trionic phase, which shows additional particle density modulations at half-filling. Away from the particle-hole symmetric point the color superfluid phase is always spontaneously magnetized, leading to the formation of different color superfluid domains in systems where the total number of particles of each species is conserved. This can be seen as the SU(3) symmetric realization of a more general tendency to phase-separation in three-component Fermi mixtures. The three-body constraint strongly disfavors the trionic phase, stabilizing a (fully magnetized) color superfluid also at strong coupling. With increasing temperature we observe a transition to a non-magnetized SU(3) Fermi liquid phase.Comment: 36 pages, 17 figures; Corrected typo

A Paper-Based Multiplexed Transaminase Test for Low-Cost, Point-of-Care Liver Function Testing

In developed nations, monitoring for drug-induced liver injury through serial measurements of serum transaminases [aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT)] in at-risk individuals is the standard of care. Despite the need, monitoring for drug-related hepatotoxicity in resource-limited settings is often limited by expense and logistics, even for patients at highest risk. This article describes the development and clinical testing of a paper-based, multiplexed microfluidic assay designed for rapid, semiquantitative measurement of AST and ALT in a fingerstick specimen. Using 223 clinical specimens obtained by venipuncture and 10 fingerstick specimens from healthy volunteers, we have shown that our assay can, in 15 min, provide visual measurements of AST and ALT in whole blood or serum, which allow the user to place those values into one of three readout “bins” [5× ULN, corresponding to tuberculosis/HIV treatment guidelines] with >90% accuracy. These data suggest that the ultimate point-of-care fingerstick device will have high impact on patient care in low-resource settings.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

Conserved presence of G-quadruplex forming sequences in the Long Terminal Repeat Promoter of Lentiviruses

G-quadruplexes (G4s) are secondary structures of nucleic acids that epigenetically regulate cellular processes. In the human immunodeficiency lentivirus 1 (HIV-1), dynamic G4s are located in the unique viral LTR promoter. Folding of HIV-1 LTR G4s inhibits viral transcription; stabilization by G4 ligands intensifies this effect. Cellular proteins modulate viral transcription by inducing/unfolding LTR G4s. We here expanded our investigation on the presence of LTR G4s to all lentiviruses. G4s in the 5'-LTR U3 region were completely conserved in primate lentiviruses. A G4 was also present in a cattle-infecting lentivirus. All other non-primate lentiviruses displayed hints of less stable G4s. In primate lentiviruses, the possibility to fold into G4s was highly conserved among strains. LTR G4 sequences were very similar among phylogenetically related primate viruses, while they increasingly differed in viruses that diverged early from a common ancestor. A strong correlation between primate lentivirus LTR G4s and Sp1/NF\u3baB binding sites was found. All LTR G4s folded: their complexity was assessed by polymerase stop assay. Our data support a role of the lentiviruses 5'-LTR G4 region as control centre of viral transcription, where folding/unfolding of G4s and multiple recruitment of factors based on both sequence and structure may take place

Sistema sulco/camalhão para irrigação e drenagem em áreas de várzea.

SISTEMA SULCO/CAMALHÃO PARA IRRIGAÇÃO E DRENAGEM EM ÁREAS DE VÁRZEA - A soja e o milho são as principais culturas produtoras de grãos utilizadas na diversificação do sistema de produção nas várzeas do Rio Grande do Sul, em rotação com o arroz irrigado. Os principais fatores limitantes, para que estas culturas sejam produtivas e rentáveis neste sistema, são a deficiente drenagem natural do solo e a ocorrência de freqüentes períodos de estiagem, acarretando alternância entre o excesso e o déficit de umidade no solo. A Embrapa Clima Temperado testou e validou a técnica sulco/camalhão em áreas sistematizadas com e sem declive, para estes cultivos, com resultados bastante promissores. O sistema consiste na estruturação da lavoura para a irrigação por sulcos, obtendo-se, ao mesmo tempo, grande benefício em drenagem, com o cultivo sobre os camalhões formados entre os sulcos. Esta técnica, como sistema complementar de drenagem superficial do solo, mostrou-se muito eficiente mesmo nos cultivos em áreas sistematizadas sem declive, onde não existe um gradiente para escoamento superficial da água. O principal requisito para a irrigação por sulcos é que o terreno tenha uma declividade constante e uniforme, requerendo geralmente a sistematização do terreno. Para irrigações mais uniformes e eficientes, a declividade deve variar de 0,10% a 0,50%, sendo que valores intermediários entre 0,15% e 0,30% são os mais indicadosbitstream/item/31294/1/comunicado-165.pd

Mannose 6-Phosphate Receptor Is Reduced in -Synuclein Overexpressing Models of Parkinsons Disease

Increasing evidence points to defects in autophagy as a common denominator in most neurodegenerative conditions. Progressive functional decline in the autophagy-lysosomal pathway (ALP) occurs with age, and the consequent impairment in protein processing capacity has been associated with a higher risk of neurodegeneration. Defects in cathepsin D (CD) processing and α-synuclein degradation causing its accumulation in lysosomes are particularly relevant for the development of Parkinson's disease (PD). However, the mechanism by which alterations in CD maturation and α-synuclein degradation leads to autophagy defects in PD neurons is still uncertain. Here we demonstrate that MPR300 shuttling between endosomes and the trans Golgi network is altered in α-synuclein overexpressing neurons. Consequently, CD is not correctly trafficked to lysosomes and cannot be processed to generate its mature active form, leading to a reduced CD-mediated α-synuclein degradation and α-synuclein accumulation in neurons. MPR300 is downregulated in brain from α-synuclein overexpressing animal models and in PD patients with early diagnosis. These data indicate MPR300 as crucial player in the autophagy-lysosomal dysfunctions reported in PD and pinpoint MRP300 as a potential biomarker for PD

Use of groundwater lifetime expectancy for the performance assessment of a deep geologic waste repository: 1. Theory, illustrations, and implications

Long-term solutions for the disposal of toxic wastes usually involve isolation of the wastes in a deep subsurface geologic environment. In the case of spent nuclear fuel, if radionuclide leakage occurs from the engineered barrier, the geological medium represents the ultimate barrier that is relied upon to ensure safety. Consequently, an evaluation of radionuclide travel times from a repository to the biosphere is critically important in a performance assessment analysis. In this study, we develop a travel time framework based on the concept of groundwater lifetime expectancy as a safety indicator. Lifetime expectancy characterizes the time that radionuclides will spend in the subsurface after their release from the repository and prior to discharging into the biosphere. The probability density function of lifetime expectancy is computed throughout the host rock by solving the backward-in-time solute transport adjoint equation subject to a properly posed set of boundary conditions. It can then be used to define optimal repository locations. The risk associated with selected sites can be evaluated by simulating an appropriate contaminant release history. The utility of the method is illustrated by means of analytical and numerical examples, which focus on the effect of fracture networks on the uncertainty of evaluated lifetime expectancy.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures; Water Resources Research, Vol. 44, 200

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. Recent advances in seasonal and annual prediction show that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small in climate models, requiring a very large ensemble to extract the predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal prediction skill using a much larger ensemble than previously available, and reveal significant skill for precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation, in addition to surface temperature. We further propose a more powerful approach than used previously to evaluate the benefit of initialisation with observations, improving our understanding of the sources of skill. Our results show that decadal climate is more predictable than previously thought and will aid society to prepare for, and adapt to, ongoing climate variability and change.D.M.S., A.A.S., N.J.D., L.H. and R.E. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra and by the European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP project (GA 776613). L.P.C. was supported by the Spanish MINECO HIATUS (CGL2015-70353-R) project. F.J.D.R. was supported by the H2020 EUCP (GA 776613) and the Spanish MINECO CLINSA (CGL2017-85791-R) projects. W.A. M. and H.P. were supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the project MiKlip (grant 01LP1519A). The NCAR contribution was supported by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA13OAR4310138 and by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant OCE-1243015. The NCAR contribution is also based upon work supported by NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the US NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. The Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) was generated using computational resources provided by the US National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231, as well as by an Accelerated Scientific Discovery grant for Cheyenne (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX) that was awarded by NCAR’s Computational and Information System Laboratory.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction

The temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long-term warming trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed. The multidecadal variability is also seen in other (societal important) parameters such as Sahel rainfall or Atlantic hurricane activity. The existence of the multidecadal variability makes climate change detection a challenge, since Global Warming evolves on a similar timescale. The ongoing discussion about a potential anthropogenic signal in the Atlantic hurricane activity is an example. A lot of work was devoted during the last years to understand the dynamics of the multidecadal variability, and external as well as internal mechanisms were proposed. This White Paper focuses on the internal mechanisms relevant to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Variability (AMO/V) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Variability (PDO/V). Specific attention is given to the role of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic. The implications for decadal predictability and prediction are discussed