Variation Among Patients With Crohn's Disease in Benefit vs Risk Preferences and Remission Time Equivalents

Background & Aims: Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) must make decisions about their treatment. We aimed to quantify patients’ preferences for different treatment outcomes and adverse events. We also evaluated the effects of latent class heterogeneity on these preferences. Methods: An online stated-preference survey was completed by 812 individuals with CD in the Crohn's and Colitis Foundation Partners cohort (IBD Partners). Patients were given information on symptoms and severity of active disease; duration of therapy with corticosteroids; and risks of serious infection, cancer and surgery. Patients were asked to assume that their treatment was not working and to choose an alternative therapy. The primary outcome was remission-time equivalents (RTE) of a given duration of symptom severity or treatment-related risk. Latent class choice models identified groups of patients with dominant treatment-outcome preferences and associated patient characteristics with these groups. Results: Latent class analysis demonstrated 3 distinct groups of survey responders whose choices were strongly influenced by avoidance of active symptoms (61%), avoidance of corticosteroid use (25%), or avoidance of risks of cancer, infection or surgery (14%) when choosing a therapy. Class membership was correlated with age, sex, mean short CD activity index score and corticosteroid avoidance. RTEs in each latent class differed significantly from the mean RTEs for the overall sample, although the symptom-avoidant class most closely approximated the overall sample. Conclusions: In an online survey of patients with CD, we found substantial heterogeneity in preference for medication efficacy and risk of harm. Physicians and regulators should therefore not assume that all patients have mean-value preferences—this could result in significant differences in health-technology assessment models

A dimensionally continued Poisson summation formula

We generalize the standard Poisson summation formula for lattices so that it operates on the level of theta series, allowing us to introduce noninteger dimension parameters (using the dimensionally continued Fourier transform). When combined with one of the proofs of the Jacobi imaginary transformation of theta functions that does not use the Poisson summation formula, our proof of this generalized Poisson summation formula also provides a new proof of the standard Poisson summation formula for dimensions greater than 2 (with appropriate hypotheses on the function being summed). In general, our methods work to establish the (Voronoi) summation formulae associated with functions satisfying (modular) transformations of the Jacobi imaginary type by means of a density argument (as opposed to the usual Mellin transform approach). In particular, we construct a family of generalized theta series from Jacobi theta functions from which these summation formulae can be obtained. This family contains several families of modular forms, but is significantly more general than any of them. Our result also relaxes several of the hypotheses in the standard statements of these summation formulae. The density result we prove for Gaussians in the Schwartz space may be of independent interest.Comment: 12 pages, version accepted by JFAA, with various additions and improvement

Cost and Outcome of Behavioural Activation versus Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Depression (COBRA): a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

Background Depression is a common, debilitating, and costly disorder. Many patients request psychological therapy, but the best-evidenced therapy—cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT)—is complex and costly. A simpler therapy—behavioural activation (BA)—might be as effective and cheaper than is CBT. We aimed to establish the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of BA compared with CBT for adults with depression. Methods In this randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial, we recruited adults aged 18 years or older meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV criteria for major depressive disorder from primary care and psychological therapy services in Devon, Durham, and Leeds (UK). We excluded people who were receiving psychological therapy, were alcohol or drug dependent, were acutely suicidal or had attempted suicide in the previous 2 months, or were cognitively impaired, or who had bipolar disorder or psychosis or psychotic symptoms. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) remotely using computer-generated allocation (minimisation used; stratified by depression severity [Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) score of <19 vs ≥19], antidepressant use, and recruitment site) to BA from junior mental health workers or CBT from psychological therapists. Randomisation done at the Peninsula Clinical Trials Unit was concealed from investigators. Treatment was given open label, but outcome assessors were masked. The primary outcome was depression symptoms according to the PHQ-9 at 12 months. We analysed all those who were randomly allocated and had complete data (modified intention to treat [mITT]) and also all those who were randomly allocated, had complete data, and received at least eight treatment sessions (per protocol [PP]). We analysed safety in the mITT population. The non-inferiority margin was 1·9 PHQ-9 points. This trial is registered with the ISCRTN registry, number ISRCTN27473954. Findings Between Sept 26, 2012, and April 3, 2014, we randomly allocated 221 (50%) participants to BA and 219 (50%) to CBT. 175 (79%) participants were assessable for the primary outcome in the mITT population in the BA group compared with 189 (86%) in the CBT group, whereas 135 (61%) were assessable in the PP population in the BA group compared with 151 (69%) in the CBT group. BA was non-inferior to CBT (mITT: CBT 8·4 PHQ-9 points [SD 7·5], BA 8·4 PHQ-9 points [7·0], mean difference 0·1 PHQ-9 points [95% CI −1·3 to 1·5], p=0·89; PP: CBT 7·9 PHQ-9 points [7·3]; BA 7·8 [6·5], mean difference 0·0 PHQ-9 points [–1·5 to 1·6], p=0·99). Two (1%) non-trial-related deaths (one [1%] multidrug toxicity in the BA group and one [1%] cancer in the CBT group) and 15 depression-related, but not treatment-related, serious adverse events (three in the BA group and 12 in the CBT group) occurred in three [2%] participants in the BA group (two [1%] patients who overdosed and one [1%] who self-harmed) and eight (4%) participants in the CBT group (seven [4%] who overdosed and one [1%] who self-harmed). Interpretation We found that BA, a simpler psychological treatment than CBT, can be delivered by junior mental health workers with less intensive and costly training, with no lesser effect than CBT. Effective psychological therapy for depression can be delivered without the need for costly and highly trained professionals. Funding National Institute for Health Research

Theory of spin-polarized bipolar transport in magnetic p-n junctions

The interplay between spin and charge transport in electrically and magnetically inhomogeneous semiconductor systems is investigated theoretically. In particular, the theory of spin-polarized bipolar transport in magnetic p-n junctions is formulated, generalizing the classic Shockley model. The theory assumes that in the depletion layer the nonequilibrium chemical potentials of spin up and spin down carriers are constant and carrier recombination and spin relaxation are inhibited. Under the general conditions of an applied bias and externally injected (source) spin, the model formulates analytically carrier and spin transport in magnetic p-n junctions at low bias. The evaluation of the carrier and spin densities at the depletion layer establishes the necessary boundary conditions for solving the diffusive transport equations in the bulk regions separately, thus greatly simplifying the problem. The carrier and spin density and current profiles in the bulk regions are calculated and the I-V characteristics of the junction are obtained. It is demonstrated that spin injection through the depletion layer of a magnetic p-n junction is not possible unless nonequilibrium spin accumulates in the bulk regions--either by external spin injection or by the application of a large bias. Implications of the theory for majority spin injection across the depletion layer, minority spin pumping and spin amplification, giant magnetoresistance, spin-voltaic effect, biasing electrode spin injection, and magnetic drift in the bulk regions are discussed in details, and illustrated using the example of a GaAs based magnetic p-n junction.Comment: 36 pages, 11 figures, 2 table

Order and Chaos in some Trigonometric Series: Curious Adventures of a Statistical Mechanic

This paper tells the story how a MAPLE-assisted quest for an interesting undergraduate problem in trigonometric series led some "amateurs" to the discovery that the one-parameter family of deterministic trigonometric series \pzcS_p: t\mapsto \sum_{n\in\Nset}\sin(n^{-{p}}t), $p>1$, exhibits both order and apparent chaos, and how this has prompted some professionals to offer their expert insights. It is proved that \pzcS_p(t) = \alpha_p\rm{sign}(t)|t|^{1/{p}}+O(|t|^{1/{(p+1)}})\;\forall\;t\in\Rset, with explicitly computed constant $\alpha_p$. Experts' commentaries are reproduced stating the fluctuations of \pzcS_p(t) - \alpha_p{\rm{sign}}(t)|t|^{1/{p}} are presumably not Gaussian. Inspired by a central limit type theorem of Marc Kac, a well-motivated conjecture is formulated to the effect that the fluctuations of the $\lceil t^{1/(p+1)}\rceil$-th partial sum of \pzcS_p(t), when properly scaled, do converge in distribution to a standard Gaussian when $t\to\infty$, though --- provided that $p$ is chosen so that the frequencies \{n^{-p}\}_{n\in\Nset} are rationally linear independent; no conjecture has been forthcoming for rationally dependent \{n^{-p}\}_{n\in\Nset}. Moreover, following other experts' tip-offs, the interesting relationship of the asymptotics of \pzcS_p(t) to properties of the Riemann $\zeta$ function is exhibited using the Mellin transform.Comment: Based on the invited lecture with the same title delivered by the author on Dec.19, 2011 at the 106th Statistical Mechanics Meeting at Rutgers University in honor of Michael Fisher, Jerry Percus, and Ben Widom. (19 figures, colors online). Comments of three referees included. Conjecture 1 revised. Accepted for publication in J. Stat. Phy

Changes in serum calcitonin concentrations, incidence of medullary thyroid carcinoma, and impact of routine calcitonin concentration monitoring in the Exenatide study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL)

OBJECTIVE Increases in serum calcitonin, a tumor marker for medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), have been associated with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist use in some preclinical studies. We report calcitonin changes in exenatide-treated and placebo-administered participants and MTC incidence in the EXenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) and consider the impact of within-trial calcitonin monitoring. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS EXSCEL participants were randomized 1:1 to once-weekly exenatide 2 mg or placebo. Serum calcitonin was measured at baseline (with trial medication discontinued if >40 ng/L) and annually thereafter (with trial medication discontinued if ‡50 ng/L). Median calcitonin concentrations were calculated at each time point, and thyroid malignancies were collected prospectively. Data regarding follow-up after an elevated calcitonin were collected retrospectively. RESULTS At baseline, 52 (30 exenatide and 22 placebo) participants had calcitonin >40 ng/L, and during follow-up an additional 23 participants (15 exenatide and 8 placebo) had calcitonin ‡50 ng/L in the intention-to-treat population. Median calcitonin concentrations were similar between treatment groups at baseline with no increase over time. Confirmed MTC occurred in three participants (2 exenatide and 1 placebo), all of whom had significantly elevated baseline calcitonin values (413, 422, and 655 ng/L). CONCLUSIONS During a median 3.2 years’ follow-up, no change in serum calcitonin was seen with exenatide therapy. The three confirmed cases of MTC all occurred in participants with markedly elevated baseline calcitonin levels, measured prior to trial medication administration. Regular calcitonin monitoring identified no additional cases of MTC, suggesting no benefit of routine calcitonin monitoring during exenatide treatment

Longitudinal medical resources and costs among type 2 diabetes patients participating in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS)

Aims: TECOS, a cardiovascular safety trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00790205) involving 14 671 patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, demonstrated that sitagliptin was non-inferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome when added to best usual care. This study tested hypotheses that medical resource use and costs differed between these 2 treatment strategies. Materials and methods: Information concerning medical resource use was collected on case report forms throughout the trial and was valued using US costs for: Medicare payments for hospitalizations, medical procedures and outpatient visits, and wholesale acquisition costs (WAC) for diabetes-related medications. Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to compare resource use and US costs, accounting for variable intercountry practice patterns. Sensitivity analyses included resource valuation using English costs for a UK perspective. Results: There were no significant differences in hospitalizations, inpatient days, medical procedures, or outpatient visits during follow-up (mean and median 3.0 years in both groups). Hospitalization rates appeared to diverge after 2 years, with lower rates among sitagliptin-treated vs placebo patients after 2.5 years (relative rate, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.97]; P =.01). Mean medical costs, exclusive of study medication, were 11 937 USD in the sitagliptin arm and 12 409 USD in the placebo arm (P =.06). Mean sitagliptin costs based on undiscounted WAC were 9978 USD per patient. Differential UK total costs including study drug costs were smaller (911 GBP), primarily because of lower mean costs for sitagliptin (1072 GBP). Conclusions: Lower hospitalization rates across time with sitagliptin slightly offset sitagliptin treatment costs over 3 years in type 2 diabetes patients at high risk for cardiovascular events

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

High-Speed Single-Event Current Transient Measurements in SiGe HBTs

Time-resolved ion beam induced charge reveals heavy ion response of IBM 5AM SiGe HBT: 1) Position correlation. 2) Unique response for different bias schemes. 3) Similarities to TPA pulsed-laser data. Heavy ion broad-beam transients provide more realistic device response: 1) Feedback using microbeam data 2) Overcome existing issues of LET and ion range with microbeam Both micro- and broad-beam data sets yield valuable input for TCAD simulations. Uncover detailed mechanisms for SiGe HBTs and other devices fabricated on lightly-doped substrates

Cost-effectiveness of alirocumab in patients with acute coronary syndromes the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial

BACKGROUND Cholesterol reduction with proprotein convertase subtitisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors reduces ischemic events; however, the cost-effectiveness in statin-treated patients with recent acute coronary syndrome remains uncertain.OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine whether further cholesterol reduction with atirocumab would be cost-effective in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy.METHODS A cost-effectiveness model leveraging patient-level data from ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Atirocumab) was developed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon. Patients (n = 18,924) had a recent acute coronary syndrome and were on high-intensity or maximum-tolerated statin therapy, with a baseline tow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level >= 70 mg/l, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol >= 100 mg/dl, or apotipoprotein B >= 80 mg/l. Atirocumab 75 mg or placebo was administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks. Atirocumab was blindly titrated to 150 mg if LDL-C remained >= 50 mg/dl or switched to placebo if 2 consecutive LDL-C levels were = 100 mg/dl.RESULTS Across the overall population recruited to the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial, using an annual treatment cost of US$5,850, the mean overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$92,200 per QALY (base case). The cost was US$41,800 per QALY in patients with baseline LDL-C >= 100 mg/dl, whereas in those with LDL-C >= 100 mg/dl the cost per QALY was US$299,400. Among patients with LDL-C a100 mg/dl, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below US$100,000 per QALY across a wide variety of sensitivity analyses.CONCLUSIONS In patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy, atirocumab improves cardiovascular outcomes at costs considered intermediate value, with good value in patients with baseline LDL-C mg/dt but less economic value with LDL-C >= 100 mg/dl. (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Atirocumab [ODYSSEY OUTCOMES]; NCT01663402) (J Am Colt Cardiol 2020;75:2297-308) (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.Cardiolog