Impact of Systematic Sampling on Causality in the presence of Unit Roots

Quite contrary to the stationary case where systematic sampling preserves the direction of Granger causality, this paper shows that systematic sampling of integrated series may induce spurious causality, even if they are used in differenced form.Systematic Sampling, Causality, Unit Roots, Cross covariance

A Gaussian Test for Cointegration

We use a mixed-frequency regression technique to develop a test for cointegration under the null of stationarity of the deviations from a long-run relationship. What is noteworthy about this MA unit root test, based on a variance-difference, is that, instead of having to deal with non-standard distributions, it takes the testing back to the normal distribution and offers a way to increase power without having to increase the sample size substantially. Monte Carlo simulations show minimal size distortions even when the AR root is close to unity and that the test offers substantial gains in power against near-null alternatives in moderate size samples. An empirical exercise illustrates the relative usefulness of the test further.Null of stationarity, MA unit root, mixed-frequency regression, variance difference, normal distribution, power.

Sources of Variations Between The Inflation Rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia During The Post-1997 Crisis

Despite the large number of studies done on the recent East Asian crisis, hardly any of them has however simultaneously evaluated the roots of the inflationary pressures and unearthed the sources of sharp variations between the inflation rates of the various crisis-effected economies. To help fill in this gap, our paper examines and contrasts the sources of inflation in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea during the period of 1985 to 2001. A number of potential sources of inflation will be considered in the study. But this study pays a particular attention to the possible roles of the monetary aggregates and the exchange rate uncertainties in encapsulating the rise in the inflationary pressures and the variations between the inflation rates experienced by these economies during the 1997 crisis.Inflation, Base Money, Expected Depreciation, Exchange Rate Policy, East Asian Financial Crisis

Temporal Aggregation, Causality Distortions, and a Sign Rule

Temporally aggregated data is a bane for Granger causality tests. The same set of variables may lead to contradictory causality inferences at different levels of temporal aggregation. Obtaining temporally disaggregated data series is impractical in many situations. Since cointegration is invariant to temporal aggregation and implies Granger causality this paper proposes a sign rule to establish the direction of causality. Temporal aggregation leads to a distortion of the sign of the adjustment coefficients of an error correction model. The sign rule works better with highly temporally aggregated data. The practitioners, therefore, may revert to using annual data for Granger causality testing instead of looking for quarterly, monthly or weekly data. The method is illustrated through three applications.Granger causality test, cointegration, error correction model, adjustment coefficient, sign rule

The Rise (and Fall) of Labour Market Programmes: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors

We study the political economy of labour market policies. First, it is shown that tax and redistributive considerations lead inside workers to prefer spending on active labour market programmes to passive spending, e.g., on unemployment benefits. We also show that greater active spending may be a feature of globalising economies. In the empirical work, panel data for OECD countries are used to examine the relationship between active and passive labour market spending, various measures of globalisation and controls relevant for analysing the political economy of labour market policies. Overall, we find that factors other than globalisation are more important determinants of labour market expenditures.

How an Export Boom affects Unemployment

Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To theoretically examine this question, we incorporate firm-union bargaining considerations into a model with a booming external sector and a stagnating manufacturing sector. In the model, a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. To empirically investigate the predicted determinants of the unemployment rate, we use data for Australia, a country whose prosperity has always depended on the value of its exports. We find strong evidence that higher export prices, capital accumulation in tradeable goods industries and a lower unemployment benefit replacement rate each reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate.