Priority for the Worse Off and the Social Cost of Carbon

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary measure of the harms from carbon emission. Specifically, it is the reduction in current consumption that produces a loss in social welfare equivalent to that caused by the emission of a ton of CO2. The standard approach is to calculate the SCC using a discounted-utilitarian social welfare function (SWF)—one that simply adds up the well-being numbers (utilities) of individuals, as discounted by a weighting factor that decreases with time. The discounted-utilitarian SWF has been criticized both for ignoring the distribution of well-being, and for including an arbitrary preference for earlier generations. Here, we use a prioritarian SWF, with no time-discount factor, to calculate the SCC in the integrated assessment model RICE. Prioritarianism is a well-developed concept in ethics and theoretical welfare economics, but has been, thus far, little used in climate scholarship. The core idea is to give greater weight to well-being changes affecting worse off individuals. We find substantial differences between the discounted-utilitarian and non-discounted prioritarian SCC

Pair Interaction Potentials of Colloids by Extrapolation of Confocal Microscopy Measurements of Collective Structure

A method for measuring the pair interaction potential between colloidal particles by extrapolation measurement of collective structure to infinite dilution is presented and explored using simulation and experiment. The method is particularly well suited to systems in which the colloid is fluorescent and refractive index matched with the solvent. The method involves characterizing the potential of mean force between colloidal particles in suspension by measurement of the radial distribution function using 3D direct visualization. The potentials of mean force are extrapolated to infinite dilution to yield an estimate of the pair interaction potential, $U(r)$. We use Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to test and establish our methodology as well as to explore the effects of polydispersity on the accuracy. We use poly-12-hydroxystearic acid-stabilized poly(methyl methacrylate) (PHSA-PMMA) particles dispersed in the solvent dioctyl phthalate (DOP) to test the method and assess its accuracy for three different repulsive systems for which the range has been manipulated by addition of electrolyte.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figure

Washing our hands of the congenital cytomegalovirus disease epidemic

BACKGROUND: Each year in the United States, an estimated 40,000 children are born with congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection, causing an estimated 400 deaths and leaving approximately 8000 children with permanent disabilities such as hearing or vision loss, or mental retardation. More children are affected by serious CMV-related disabilities than by several better-known childhood maladies, including Down syndrome, fetal alcohol syndrome, and spina bifida. DISCUSSION: Congenital CMV is a prime target for prevention not only because of its substantial disease burden but also because the biology and epidemiology of CMV suggest that there are ways to reduce viral transmission. Because exposure to the saliva or urine of young children is a major cause of CMV infection among pregnant women, it is likely that good personal hygiene, especially hand-washing, can reduce the risk of CMV acquisition. Experts agree that such measures are likely to be efficacious (i.e., they will work if consistently followed) and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommends that physicians counsel pregnant women about preventing CMV acquisition through careful attention to hygiene. However, because of concerns about effectiveness (i.e., Will women consistently follow hygienic practices as the result of interventions?), the medical and public health communities appear reluctant to embrace primary CMV prevention via improved hygienic practices, and educational interventions are rare. Current data on the effectiveness of such measures in preventing CMV infection are promising, but limited. There is strong evidence, however, that educational interventions can prevent other infectious diseases with similar transmission modes, suggesting that effective interventions can also be found for CMV. Until a CMV vaccine becomes available, effective educational interventions are needed to inform women about congenital CMV prevention. SUMMARY: Perhaps no single cause of birth defects and developmental disabilities in the United States currently provides greater opportunity for improved outcomes in more children than congenital CMV. Given the present state of knowledge, women deserve to be informed about how they can reduce their risk of CMV infection during pregnancy, and trials are needed to identify effective educational interventions

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase

The outcomes of midline versus medio-lateral episiotomy

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Selecting CMIP5 GCMs for downscaling over multiple regions

The unprecedented availability of 6-hourly data from a multi-model GCM ensemble in the CMIP5 data archive presents the new opportunity to dynamically downscale multiple GCMs to develop high-resolution climate projections relevant to detailed assessment of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts. This enables the development of high resolution projections derived from the same set of models that are used to characterise the range of future climate changes at the global and large-scale, and as assessed in the IPCC AR5. However, the technical and human resource required to dynamically-downscale the full CMIP5 ensemble are significant and not necessary if the aim is to develop scenarios covering a representative range of future climate conditions relevant to a climate change risk assessment. This paper illustrates a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8–10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments. The selection focuses on their suitability across multiple regions—Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. The selection (a) avoids the inclusion of the least realistic models for each region and (b) simultaneously captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible’ (MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and IPSL-CM5B-LR). From the remaining models, we demonstrate a selection methodology which avoids the poorest models by including them in the set only if their exclusion would significantly reduce the range of projections sampled. The result of this process is a set of models suitable for using to generate downscaled climate change information for a consistent multi-regional assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation

Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

Copyright © 2014 Nature Publishing GroupThere has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade [1]. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves [14, 15, 16, 17]. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes—and associated weakening of the north–south temperature gradient—may favour larger amplitude planetary waves [14, 15, 16, 17], although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive [18, 19, 20, 21]. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC