On the emissions and transport of bromoform: Sensitivity to model resolution and emission location

Abstract. Bromoform (CHBr3) is a short-lived species with an important but poorly quantified ocean source. It can be transported to the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), in part by rapid, deep convective lifting, from where it can influence the global stratospheric ozone budget. In a modelling study, we investigate the importance of the regional distribution of the emissions and of model resolution for the transport of bromoform to the TTL. We use two idealized CHBr3 emission fields (one coastal, one uniformly distributed across the oceans) implemented in high- and coarse-resolution (HR and CR) versions of the same global model and focus on February as the period of peak convection in the West Pacific. Using outgoing long-wave radiation and precipitation as metrics, the HR version of the model is found to represent convection better. In the more realistic HR model version, the coastal emission scenario leads to 15–20 % more CHBr3 in the global TTL, and up to three times more CHBr3 in the TTL over the Maritime Continent, than when uniform emissions of the same tropical magnitude are employed. Using the uniform emission scenario in both model versions, the distribution of CHBr3 at 15.7 km (approximately the level of zero net radiative heating) is qualitatively consistent with the differing geographic distributions of convection. However, averaged over the whole tropics, the amount of CHBr3 in the TTL in the two model versions is similar. Using the coastal scenario, in which emissions are particularly high in the Maritime Continent because of its long coastlines, the mixing ratio of CHBr3 in the TTL is enhanced over the Maritime Continent in both model versions. The enhancement is larger, and the peak in CHBr3 mixing ratio occurs at a higher altitude, in the HR model version. Our regional-scale results indicate that using aircraft measurements and coarse global models to infer CHBr3 emissions will be very difficult, particularly if (as is possible) emissions are distributed heterogeneously and in regions of strong convective activity. In contrast, the global-scale agreement between our CR and HR calculations suggests model resolution is less vital for studies focused on the transport of bromine into the global stratosphere. This work was supported through the ERC ACCI project (project no. 267760), and by NERC through grant nos. NE/J006246/1 and NE/F1016012/1. N. R. P. Harris was supported by a NERC Advanced Research Fellowship (NE/G014655/1).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Copernicus Publications via http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14031-201

Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: Implications for UV exposure and air quality

Abstract. Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM). Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality. We thank the European Research Council for funding through the ACCI project, project number 267760. In particular, we thank Jonathan M. Gregory (UK Met Office, University of Reading), Manoj M. Joshi (University of East Anglia) and Annette Osprey (University of Reading) for model development as part of the QUEST-ESM project supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under contract numbers RH/H10/19 and R8/H12/124. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and NERC. For plotting, we used Matplotlib, a 2-D graphics environment for the Python programming language developed by Hunter (2007). We are grateful for advice of P. Telford during the model development stage of this project and thank the UKCA team at the UK Met Office for help and support.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Copernicus Publications via http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4191-2016

Early IL-6 signalling promotes IL-27 dependent maturation of regulatory T cells in the lungs and resolution of viral immunopathology.

Interleukin-6 is a pleiotropic, pro-inflammatory cytokine that can promote both innate and adaptive immune responses. In humans with respiratory virus infections, such as Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), elevated concentrations of IL-6 are associated with more severe disease. In contrast the polymorphisms in the Il6 promoter which favour lower IL-6 production are associated with increased risk of both RSV and Rhinovirus infections. To determine the precise contribution of IL-6 to protection and pathology we used murine models of respiratory virus infection. RSV infection resulted in increased IL-6 production both in the airways and systemically which remained heightened for at least 2 weeks. IL-6 depletion early, but not late, during RSV or Influenza A virus infection resulted in significantly increased disease associated with an influx of virus specific TH1 and cytotoxic CD8+ T cells, whilst not affecting viral clearance. IL-6 acted by driving production of the immunoregulatory cytokine IL-27 by macrophages and monocytes, which in turn promoted the local maturation of regulatory T cells. Concordantly IL-27 was necessary to regulate TH1 responses in the lungs, and sufficient to limit RSV induced disease. Overall we found that during respiratory virus infection the prototypic inflammatory cytokine IL-6 is a critical anti-inflammatory regulator of viral induced immunopathology in the respiratory tract through its induction of IL-27

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity Estimates

A number of climate modeling studies have shown that differences between typical choices for representing ozone can affect climate change projections. Here, we investigate potential climate impacts of a specific ozone representation used in simulations of the HadGEM model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The method considers ozone changes only in the troposphere and lower stratosphere and prescribes stratospheric ozone elsewhere. For a standard climate sensitivity simulation, we find that this method leads to significantly increased global warming and specific patterns of regional surface warming compared with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry set-up. We explain this mainly by the suppressed part of the stratospheric ozone changes and the associated alteration of the stratospheric water vapor feedback. This combined effect is modulated by simultaneous cirrus cloud changes. We underline the need to understand better how representations of ozone can affect climate modeling results and, in particular, global and regional climate sensitivity estimates.European Research Council ACCI project (project number 267760

Sensitivity of tropical deep convection in global models: Effects of horizontal resolution, surface constraints, and 3D atmospheric nudging

We investigate the ability of global models to capture the spatial patterns of tropical deep convection. Their sensitivity is assessed through changing horizontal resolution, surface flux constraints, and constraining background atmospheric conditions. We assess two models at typical climate and weather forecast resolutions. Comparison with observations indicates that increasing resolution generally improves the pattern of tropical convection. When the models are constrained with realistic surface fluxes and atmospheric structure, the location of convection improves dramatically and is very similar irrespective of resolution and parameterisations used in the models.RCUK, OtherThis is the accepted version of the following article: 'Sensitivity of tropical deep convection in global models: effects of horizontal resolution, surface constraints and 3D atmospheric nudging', which will be published in Atmospheric Science Letters. This record will be updated with citation and DOI after publication

Estimates of tropical bromoform emissions using an inversion method

Abstract. Bromine plays an important role in ozone chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. When measured by mass, bromoform (CHBr3) is thought to be the largest organic source of bromine to the atmosphere. While seaweed and phytoplankton are known to be dominant sources, the size and the geographical distribution of CHBr3 emissions remains uncertain. Particularly little is known about emissions from the Maritime Continent, which have usually been assumed to be large, and which appear to be especially likely to reach the stratosphere. In this study we aim to reduce this uncertainty by combining the first multi-annual set of CHBr3 measurements from this region, and an inversion process, to investigate systematically the distribution and magnitude of CHBr3 emissions. The novelty of our approach lies in the application of the inversion method to CHBr3. We find that local measurements of a short-lived gas like CHBr3 can be used to constrain emissions from only a relatively small, sub-regional domain. We then obtain detailed estimates of CHBr3 emissions within this area, which appear to be relatively insensitive to the assumptions inherent in the inversion process. We extrapolate this information to produce estimated emissions for the entire tropics (defined as 20° S–20° N) of 225 Gg CHBr3 yr−1. The ocean in the area we base our extrapolations upon is typically somewhat shallower, and more biologically productive, than the tropical average. Despite this, our tropical estimate is lower than most other recent studies, and suggests that CHBr3 emissions in the coastline-rich Maritime Continent may not be stronger than emissions in other parts of the tropics. M. Ashfold thanks the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for a research studentship, and is grateful for support through the ERC ACCI project (project number 267760). N. Harris is supported by a NERC Advanced Research Fellowship. This work was supported through the EU SHIVA project, through the NERC OP3 project, and NERC grants NE/F020341/1 and NE/J006246/1. We also acknowledge the Department of Energy and Climate Change for their support in the development of InTEM (contract GA0201). For field site support we thank S.-M. Phang, A. A. Samah and M. S. M. Nadzir of Universiti Malaya, S. Ong and H. E. Ung of Global Satria, Maznorizan Mohamad, L. K. Peng and S. E. Yong of the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the Sabah Foundation, the Danum Valley Field Centre and the Royal Society. This paper constitutes publication no. 613 of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/979/2014/acp-14-979-2014.html

Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a seven-member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of  ∼  11.5 DU decade⁻¹, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by  ∼  50–100 DU below the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Clᵧ) over the century, the estimated mean halogen-induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods 2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a significant cooling trend in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less confidence in the projected temperature trends in the lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual winters characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and anomalously low temperatures continue to occur in the future. We conclude that, despite the projected long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue in the future, thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades to come.We thank NCAS Computational Model Support for help with setting up and porting the model. We acknowledge the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and the NERC. Amanda C. Maycock, John A. Pyle and N. Luke Abraham were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, a NERC-funded research centre. We acknowledge funding from the ERC for the ACCI project (grant number 267760), including a PhD studentship for Ewa M. Bednarz. Amanda C. Maycock acknowledges support from an AXA postdoctoral fellowship and NERC grant NE/M018199/1

Challenges for the recovery of the ozone layer

The recovery of stratospheric ozone from past depletion is underway owing to the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which have been effective in phasing out the production and consumption of the major ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). However, there is uncertainty about the future rate of recovery. This uncertainty relates partly to unexpected emissions of controlled anthropogenic ODSs such as CCl₃F and slower-than-expected declines in atmospheric CCl₄. A further uncertainty surrounds emissions of uncontrolled short-lived anthropogenic ODSs (such as CH₂Cl₂ and CHCl₃), which observations show have been increasing in the atmosphere through 2017, as well as potential emission increases in natural ODSs (such as CH₃Cl and CH₃Br) induced by climate change, changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases N₂O and CH₄, and stratospheric geoengineering. These challenges could delay the return of stratospheric ozone levels to historical values, (for example, the abundance in 1980), by up to decades, depending on the future evolution of the emissions and other influencing factors. To mitigate the threats to future ozone recovery, it is crucial to ensure that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments continue to be implemented effectively in order to have firm control on future levels of ODSs. This action needs to be supported by an expansion of the geographic coverage of atmospheric observations of ODSs, by enhancing the ability of source attribution modelling, and by improving understanding of the interactions between climate change and ozone recovery

On the Changing Role of the Stratosphere on the Tropospheric Ozone Budget: 1979–2010

We study the evolution of tropospheric ozone over the period 1979-2010 using a chemistry-climate model employing a stratosphere-troposphere chemistry scheme. By running with specified dynamics, the key feedback of composition on meteorology is suppressed, isolating the chemical response. By using historical forcings and emissions, interactions between processes are realistically represented. We use the model to assess how the ozone responds over time and to investigate model responses and trends. We find that the CFC-driven decrease in stratospheric ozone plays a significant role in the tropospheric ozone burden. Over the period 1979-1994, the decline in transport of ozone from the stratosphere, partially offsets an emissions-driven increase in tropospheric ozone production. From 1994-2010, despite a levelling off in emissions increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone drives a small increase in the tropospheric ozone burden. These results have implications for the impact of future stratospheric ozone recovery on air quality and radiative forcing.European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme 10 (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 603557 (StratoClim)

Enhanced IL-2 in early life limits the development of TFH and protective antiviral immunity

T follicular helper cell (TFH)-dependent antibody responses are critical for long-term immunity. Antibody responses are diminished in early life, limiting long-term protective immunity and allowing prolonged or recurrent infection, which may be important for viral lung infections that are highly prevalent in infancy. In a murine model using respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we show that TFH and the high-affinity antibody production they promote are vital for preventing disease on RSV reinfection. Following a secondary RSV infection, TFH-deficient mice had significantly exacerbated disease characterized by delayed viral clearance, increased weight loss, and immunopathology. TFH generation in early life was compromised by heightened IL-2 and STAT5 signaling in differentiating naive T cells. Neutralization of IL-2 during early-life RSV infection resulted in a TFH-dependent increase in antibody-mediated immunity and was sufficient to limit disease severity upon reinfection. These data demonstrate the importance of TFH in protection against recurrent RSV infection and highlight a mechanism by which this is suppressed in early life