The Broader Effects of Delayed Progression to End-Stage Kidney Disease: Delaying the Inevitable or a Meaningful Change?

A global rise in the prevalence of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has led to a considerable and increasing burden to health systems, patients, and society. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are proven to reduce incidence of cardio-renal outcomes, including onset of ESKD. Recent post hoc analyses of SGLT2 inhibitor trials extrapolate substantial delays in the average time to ESKD over a patient's lifetime. In this article, we explore the possible real-world effects of such a delay by considering the available evidence reporting outcomes following onset of ESKD. From the patient perspective, a delay in reaching ESKD could substantially improve health-related quality of life and result in additional life years without the need for kidney replacement therapies, a target relevant to all CKD subpopulations. Furthermore, should a patient initiate dialysis at an older age as a result of CKD progression, the time spent in receipt of dialysis, and therefore associated healthcare costs, may also be reduced. A delay in progression may also lead to changes in the management of ESKD, such as increased election of conservative care in preference to dialysis, particularly in elderly populations. For younger patients with CKD, those who reach ESKD while employed face considerable work impairment and productivity loss, as may families and care partners of working age. Therefore, a delay to the onset of ESKD will reduce the proportion of their working lives affected by productivity losses or unemployment due to medical reasons. In conclusion, optimised treatment of CKD may lead to a shift in treatment options, but proper and timely implementation is essential for the realisation of improved outcomes

Treatment choice, medication adherence and glycemic efficacy in people with type 2 diabetes: a UK clinical practice database study

Objective Using primary care data obtained from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, this retrospective cohort study examined the relationships between medication adherence and clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research design and methods Data were extracted for patients treated between 2008 and 2016, and stratified by oral antihyperglycemic agent (OHA) line of therapy (mono, dual or triple therapy). Patients were monitored for up to 365 days; associations between medication possession ratio (MPR) and outcomes at 1 year (glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), weight and hypoglycemia incidence) were assessed using linear regression modeling and descriptive analyses. Results In total, 33 849 patients were included in the study (n=23 925 OHA monotherapy; n=8406 OHA dual therapy; n=1518 OHA triple therapy). One-year change in HbA1c was greater among adherent (−0.90 to −1.14%; −9.8 to −12.5 mmol/mol) compared with non-adherent patients (−0.49 to −0.69%; −5.4 to −7.5 mmol/mol). On average, adherent patients had higher hypoglycemia event rates than non-adherent patients (rate ratios of 1.24, 1.10 and 2.06 for OHA mono, dual and triple therapy cohorts, respectively) and experienced greater weight change from baseline. A 10% improvement in MPR was associated with −0.09% (−1.0 mmol/mol), −0.09% (−1.0 mmol/mol) and −0.21% (−2.3 mmol/mol) changes in HbA1c for OHA mono, dual and triple therapy cohorts, respectively. Conclusions For patients with type 2 diabetes, increasing medication adherence can bring about meaningful improvements in HbA1c control as the requirement for treatment escalation increases. Regimens associated with weight loss and the avoidance of hypoglycemia were generally associated with better medication adherence and improved glycemic control

A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model.

Background: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading inheritable cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD); however, the natural course of disease progression is heterogeneous between patients. This study aimed to develop a natural history model of ADPKD that predicted progression rates and long-term outcomes in patients with differing baseline characteristics. Methods: The ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) was developed using available patient-level data from the placebo arm of the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and its Outcomes Study (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948). Multivariable regression equations estimating annual rates of ADPKD progression, in terms of total kidney volume (TKV) and estimated glomerular filtration rate, formed the basis of the lifetime patient-level simulation model. Outputs of the ADPKD-OM were compared against external data sources to validate model accuracy and generalisability to other ADPKD patient populations, then used to predict long-term outcomes in a cohort matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 study population. Results: A cohort with baseline patient characteristics consistent with TEMPO 3:4 was predicted to reach ESRD at a mean age of 52 years. Most patients (85%) were predicted to reach ESRD by the age of 65 years, with many progressing to ESRD earlier in life (18, 36 and 56% by the age of 45, 50 and 55 years, respectively). Consistent with previous research and clinical opinion, analyses supported the selection of baseline TKV as a prognostic factor for ADPKD progression, and demonstrated its value as a strong predictor of future ESRD risk. Validation exercises and illustrative analyses confirmed the ability of the ADPKD-OM to accurately predict disease progression towards ESRD across a range of clinically-relevant patient profiles. Conclusions: The ADPKD-OM represents a robust tool to predict natural disease progression and long-term outcomes in ADPKD patients, based on readily available and/or measurable clinical characteristics. In conjunction with clinical judgement, it has the potential to support decision-making in research and clinical practice

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for patients with heart failure across the spectrum of ejection fraction:A pooled analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER data

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to usual care, compared with usual care alone, in a large population of patients with heart failure (HF), spanning the full range of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and results: Patient-level data were pooled from HF trials (DAPA-HF, DELIVER) to generate a population including HF with reduced, mildly reduced and preserved LVEF, to increase statistical power and enable exploration of interactions among LVEF, renal function and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels, as they are relevant determinants of health status in this population. Survival and HF recurrent event risk equations were derived and applied to a lifetime horizon Markov model with health states defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score quartiles; costs and utilities were in the UK setting. The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £6470 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, well below the UK willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20 000/QALY gained. In interaction sensitivity analyses, the highest ICER was observed for elderly patients with preserved LVEF (£16 624/QALY gained), and ranged to a region of dominance (increased QALYs, decreased costs) for patients with poorer renal function and reduced/mildly reduced LVEF. Results across the patient characteristic interaction plane were mostly between £5000 and £10 000/QALY gained. Conclusions: Dapagliflozin plus usual care, versus usual care alone, yielded results well below the WTP threshold for the UK across a heterogeneous population of patients with HF including the full spectrum of LVEF, and is likely a cost-effective intervention.</p

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for patients with heart failure across the spectrum of ejection fraction:A pooled analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER data

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to usual care, compared with usual care alone, in a large population of patients with heart failure (HF), spanning the full range of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and results: Patient-level data were pooled from HF trials (DAPA-HF, DELIVER) to generate a population including HF with reduced, mildly reduced and preserved LVEF, to increase statistical power and enable exploration of interactions among LVEF, renal function and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels, as they are relevant determinants of health status in this population. Survival and HF recurrent event risk equations were derived and applied to a lifetime horizon Markov model with health states defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score quartiles; costs and utilities were in the UK setting. The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £6470 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, well below the UK willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20 000/QALY gained. In interaction sensitivity analyses, the highest ICER was observed for elderly patients with preserved LVEF (£16 624/QALY gained), and ranged to a region of dominance (increased QALYs, decreased costs) for patients with poorer renal function and reduced/mildly reduced LVEF. Results across the patient characteristic interaction plane were mostly between £5000 and £10 000/QALY gained. Conclusions: Dapagliflozin plus usual care, versus usual care alone, yielded results well below the WTP threshold for the UK across a heterogeneous population of patients with HF including the full spectrum of LVEF, and is likely a cost-effective intervention.</p

Translating the efficacy of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease to lower healthcare resource utilization and costs: a medical care cost offset analysis

AIMS: Dapagliflozin was approved for use in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on results of the DAPA-CKD trial, demonstrating attenuation of CKD progression and reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy. The study objective was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes across 31 countries and regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A comparative cost-determination framework estimated outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus standard therapy versus standard therapy alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), acute kidney injury (AKI), and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 100,000 patients. Associated medical care costs for non-fatal events were calculated using sources from a review of publicly available data specific to each considered setting. RESULTS: Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy experienced fewer incidents of ESKD (7,221 vs 10,767; number needed to treat, NNT: 28), HHF (2,370 vs 4,684; NNT: 43), AKI (4,110 vs. 5,819; NNT: 58), and ACM (6,383 vs 8,874; NNT: 40) per 100,000 treated patients versus those treated with standard therapy alone. Across 31 countries/regions, reductions in clinical events were associated with a 33% reduction in total costs, or a cumulative mean medical care cost offset of $264 million per 100,000 patients over 3 years. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: This analysis is limited by the quality of country/region-specific data available for medical care event costs. Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, we show that treatment with dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence at the population level, which could have positive effects upon healthcare service delivery worldwide. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management

The Challenge of Transparency and Validation in Health Economic Decision Modelling:A View from Mount Hood

Transparency in health economic decision modelling is important for engendering confidence in the models and in the reliability of model-based cost-effectiveness analyses. The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network has taken a lead in promoting transparency through validation with biennial conferences in which diabetes modelling groups meet to compare simulated outcomes of pre-specified scenarios often based on the results of pivotal clinical trials. Model registration is a potential method for promoting transparency, while also reducing the duplication of effort. An important network initiative is the ongoing construction of a diabetes model registry (https://www.mthooddiabeteschallenge.com). Following the 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) guidelines, we recommend that modelling groups provide technical and non-technical documentation sufficient to enable model reproduction, but not necessarily provide the model code. We also request that modelling groups upload documentation on the methods and outcomes of validation efforts, and run reference case simulations so that model outcomes can be compared. In this paper, we discuss conflicting definitions of transparency in health economic modelling, and describe the ongoing development of a registry of economic models for diabetes through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, its objectives and potential further developments, and highlight the challenges in its construction and maintenance. The support of key stakeholders such as decision-making bodies and journals is key to ensuring the success of this and other registries. In the absence of public funding, the development of a network of modellers is of huge value in enhancing transparency, whether through registries or other means