Pathwise Sensitivity Analysis in Transient Regimes

The instantaneous relative entropy (IRE) and the corresponding instanta- neous Fisher information matrix (IFIM) for transient stochastic processes are pre- sented in this paper. These novel tools for sensitivity analysis of stochastic models serve as an extension of the well known relative entropy rate (RER) and the corre- sponding Fisher information matrix (FIM) that apply to stationary processes. Three cases are studied here, discrete-time Markov chains, continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential equations. A biological reaction network is presented as a demonstration numerical example

Acanthaster planci Outbreak: Decline in Coral Health, Coral Size Structure Modification and Consequences for Obligate Decapod Assemblages

Although benthic motile invertebrate communities encompass the vast majority of coral reef diversity, their response to habitat modification has been poorly studied. A variety of benthic species, particularly decapods, provide benefits to their coral host enabling them to cope with environmental stressors, and as a result benefit the overall diversity of coral-associated species. However, little is known about how invertebrate assemblages associated with corals will be affected by global perturbations, (either directly or indirectly via their coral host) or their consequences for ecosystem resilience. Analysis of a ten year dataset reveals that the greatest perturbation at Moorea over this time was an outbreak of the corallivorous sea star Acanthaster planci from 2006 to 2009 impacting habitat health, availability and size structure of Pocillopora spp. populations and highlights a positive relationship between coral head size and survival. We then present the results of a mensurative study in 2009 conducted at the end of the perturbation (A. planci outbreak) describing how coral-decapod communities change with percent coral mortality for a selected coral species, Pocillopora eydouxi. The loss of coral tissue as a consequence of A. planci consumption led to an increase in rarefied total species diversity, but caused drastic modifications in community composition driven by a shift from coral obligate to non-obligate decapod species. Our study highlights that larger corals left with live tissue in 2009, formed a restricted habitat where coral obligate decapods, including mutualists, could subsist. We conclude that the size structure of Pocillopora populations at the time of an A. planci outbreak may greatly condition the magnitude of coral mortality as well as the persistence of local populations of obligate decapods

Rapid bioerosion in a tropical upwelling coral reef

Coral reefs persist in an accretion-erosion balance, which is critical for understanding the natural variability of sediment production, reef accretion, and their effects on the carbonate budget. Bioerosion (i.e. biodegradation of substrate) and encrustation (i.e. calcified overgrowth on substrate) influence the carbonate budget and the ecological functions of coral reefs, by substrate formation/consolidation/erosion, food availability and nutrient cycling. This study investigates settlement succession and carbonate budget change by bioeroding and encrusting calcifying organisms on experimentally deployed coral substrates (skeletal fragments of Stylophora pistillata branches). The substrates were deployed in a marginal coral reef located in the Gulf of Papagayo (Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific) for four months during the northern winter upwelling period (December 2013 to March 2014), and consecutively sampled after each month. Due to the upwelling environmental conditions within the Eastern Tropical Pacific, this region serves as a natural laboratory to study ecological processes such as bioerosion, which may reflect climate change scenarios. Time-series analyses showed a rapid settlement of bioeroders, particularly of lithophagine bivalves of the genus Lithophaga/ Leiosolenus (Dillwyn, 1817), within the first two months of exposure. The observed enhanced calcium carbonate loss of coral substrate (>30%) may influence seawater carbon chemistry. This is evident by measurements of an elevated seawater pH (>8.2) and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag >3) at Matapalo Reef during the upwelling period, when compared to a previous upwelling event observed at a nearby site in distance to a coral reef (Marina Papagayo). Due to the resulting local carbonate buffer effect of the seawater, an influx of atmospheric CO2 into reef waters was observed. Substrates showed no secondary cements in thin-section analyses, despite constant seawater carbonate oversaturation (Ωarag >2.8) during the field experiment. Micro Computerized Tomography (μCT) scans and microcast-embeddings of the substrates revealed that the carbonate loss was primarily due to internal macrobioerosion and an increase in microbioerosion. This study emphasizes the interconnected effects of upwelling and carbonate bioerosion on the reef carbonate budget and the ecological turnovers of carbonate producers in tropical coral reefs under environmental change.Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación/[028-2013-SINAC]/SINAC/Costa RicaSistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación/[72-2013-SINAC]/SINAC/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

DNA restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative patients in Kampala, Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The identification and differentiation of strains of <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>by DNA fingerprinting has provided a better understanding of the epidemiology and tracing the transmission of tuberculosis. We set out to determine if there was a relationship between the risk of belonging to a group of tuberculosis patients with identical mycobacterial DNA fingerprint patterns and the HIV sero-status of the individuals in a high TB incidence peri-urban setting of Kampala, Uganda.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One hundred eighty three isolates of <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>from 80 HIV seropositive and 103 HIV seronegative patients were fingerprinted by standard IS<it>6110</it>-RFLP. Using the BioNumerics software, strains were considered to be clustered if at least one other patient had an isolate with identical RFLP pattern.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred and eighteen different fingerprint patterns were obtained from the 183 isolates. There were 34 clusters containing 54% (99/183) of the patients (average cluster size of 2.9), and a majority (96.2%) of the strains possessed a high copy number (≥ 5 copies) of the IS<it>6110 </it>element. When strains with <5 bands were excluded from the analysis, 50.3% (92/183) were clustered, and there was no difference in the level of diversity of DNA fingerprints observed in the two sero-groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.85, 95%CI 0.46–1.56, <it>P </it>= 0.615), patients aged <40 years (aOR 0.53, 95%CI 0.25–1.12, <it>P </it>= 0.100), and sex (aOR 1.12, 95%CI 0.60–2.06, <it>P </it>= 0.715).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The sample showed evidence of a high prevalence of recent transmission with a high average cluster size, but infection with an isolate with a fingerprint found to be part of a cluster was not associated with any demographic or clinical characteristics, including HIV status.</p

Contrasting Patterns of Coral Bleaching Susceptibility in 2010 Suggest an Adaptive Response to Thermal Stress

Background: \ud Coral bleaching events vary in severity, however, to date, the hierarchy of susceptibility to bleaching among coral taxa has been consistent over a broad geographic range and among bleaching episodes. Here we examine the extent of spatial and temporal variation in thermal tolerance among scleractinian coral taxa and between locations during the 2010 thermally induced, large-scale bleaching event in South East Asia.\ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings: \ud Surveys to estimate the bleaching and mortality indices of coral genera were carried out at three locations with contrasting thermal and bleaching histories. Despite the magnitude of thermal stress being similar among locations in 2010, there was a remarkable contrast in the patterns of bleaching susceptibility. Comparisons of bleaching susceptibility within coral taxa and among locations revealed no significant differences between locations with similar thermal histories, but significant differences between locations with contrasting thermal histories (Friedman = 34.97; p,0.001). Bleaching was much less severe at locations that bleached during 1998, that had greater historical temperature variability and lower rates of warming. Remarkably, Acropora and Pocillopora, taxa that are typically highly susceptible, although among the most susceptible in Pulau Weh (Sumatra, Indonesia) where respectively, 94% and 87% of colonies died, were among the least susceptible in Singapore, where only 5% and 12% of colonies died.\ud \ud Conclusions/Significance: \ud The pattern of susceptibility among coral genera documented here is unprecedented. A parsimonious explanation for these results is that coral populations that bleached during the last major warming event in 1998 have adapted and/or acclimatised to thermal stress. These data also lend support to the hypothesis that corals in regions subject to more variable temperature regimes are more resistant to thermal stress than those in less variable environments

Subtidal macrozoobenthos communities from northern Chile during and post El Niño 1997–1998

Despite a large amount of climatic and oceanographic information dealing with the recurring climate phenomenon El Niño (EN) and its well known impact on diversity of marine benthic communities, most published data are rather descriptive and consequently our understanding of the underlying mechanisms and processes that drive community structure during EN are still very scarce. In this study, we address two questions on the effects of EN on macrozoobenthic communities: (1) how does EN affect species diversity of the communities in northern Chile? and (2) is EN a phenomenon that restarts community assembling processes by affecting species interactions in northern Chile? To answer these questions, we compared species diversity and co-occurrence patterns of soft-bottoms macrozoobenthos communities from the continental shelf off northern Chile during (March 1998) and after (September 1998) the strong EN event 1997–1998. The methods used varied from species diversity and species co-occurrence analyses to multivariate ordination methods. Our results indicate that EN positively affects diversity of macrozoobenthos communities in the study area, increasing the species richness and diversity and decreasing the species dominance. EN represents a strong disturbance that affects species interactions that rule the species assembling processes in shallow-water, sea-bottom environments

Deep reefs of the Great Barrier Reef offer limited thermal refuge during mass coral bleaching

Our rapidly warming climate is threatening coral reefs as thermal anomalies trigger mass coral bleaching events. Deep (or "mesophotic") coral reefs are hypothesised to act as major ecological refuges from mass bleaching, but empirical assessments are limited. We evaluated the potential of mesophotic reefs within the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and adjacent Coral Sea to act as thermal refuges by characterising long-term temperature conditions and assessing impacts during the 2016 mass bleaching event. We found that summer upwelling initially provided thermal relief at upper mesophotic depths (40 m), but then subsided resulting in anomalously warm temperatures even at depth. Bleaching impacts on the deep reefs were severe (40% bleached and 6% dead colonies at 40 m) but significantly lower than at shallower depths (60-69% bleached and 8-12% dead at 5-25 m). While we confirm that deep reefs can offer refuge from thermal stress, we highlight important caveats in terms of the transient nature of the protection and their limited ability to provide broad ecological refuge.XL Catlin Seaview Survey; Waitt Foundation; XL Catlin Group; Underwater Earth; University of Queensland; ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) [DE160101433]; Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/110285/2015]; Australian Research Council (ARC

VDA, a Method of Choosing a Better Algorithm with Fewer Validations

The multitude of bioinformatics algorithms designed for performing a particular computational task presents end-users with the problem of selecting the most appropriate computational tool for analyzing their biological data. The choice of the best available method is often based on expensive experimental validation of the results. We propose an approach to design validation sets for method comparison and performance assessment that are effective in terms of cost and discrimination power