Multi-asset class mutual funds: Can they time the market? Evidence from the US, UK and Canada

The importance of asset allocation decisions in wealth management is well established. However, given its importance it is perhaps surprising that so little attention has been paid to the question of whether professional fund managers are skilful at timing market movement across asset classes over time. The timing literature has tended to concentrate on the timing skill of single asset class funds. Using data on US, UK and Canadian multi-asset class funds, we apply two alternative methodologies to identify the asset class timing abilities of managers. Overall, whether we apply a returns-based method or a holdings-based testing approach, we find evidence of only a tiny minority of funds with asset class timing ability

LC3B globular structures correlate with survival in esophageal adenocarcinoma

Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma has the fastest growing incidence of any solid tumor in the Western world. Prognosis remains poor with overall five-year survival rates under 25 %. Only a limited number of patients benefit from chemotherapy and there are no biomarkers that can predict outcome. Previous studies have indicated that induction of autophagy can influence various aspects of tumor cell biology, including chemosensitivity. The objective of this study was to assess whether expression of the autophagy marker (LC3B) correlated with patient outcome. Methods: Esophageal adenocarcinoma tumor tissue from two independent sites, was examined retrospectively. Tumors from 104 neoadjuvant naïve patients and 48 patients post neoadjuvant therapy were assembled into tissue microarrays prior to immunohistochemical analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests were used to assess impact of LC3B expression on survival. Cox regression was used to examine association with clinical risk factors. Results: A distinct globular pattern of LC3B expression was found to be predictive of outcome in both patient groups, irrespective of treatment (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis found that this was a strong independent predictor of poor prognosis (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This distinctive staining pattern of LC3B represents a novel prognostic marker for resectable esophageal adenocarcinoma

Family status and mutual fund performance

Using a large and long sample of US and European mutual funds, we examine the impact that membership of a fund family has on performance. We test for strategic and competitive behaviours among family funds and whether this affects performance persistence and risk-taking. While we do not find evidence of stronger performance persistence among family funds versus non-family funds, we do find some significant differences in the future performance of portfolios of family and non-family funds formed on the basis of past performance. We find strong evidence that a fund's mid-year ranking within its family and within its sector affects its risk-taking over the remainder of the year. However, most interestingly, we find evidence to suggest differences in the ways in which the US and European fund management industries operate, although future microstructure research would be required to identify the industry practices and cultures that may be the source of these differences

Mutation screening of retinal dystrophy patients by targeted capture from tagged pooled DNAs and next generation sequencing.

Purpose: Retinal dystrophies are genetically heterogeneous, resulting from mutations in over 200 genes. Prior to the development of massively parallel sequencing, comprehensive genetic screening was unobtainable for most patients. Identifying the causative genetic mutation facilitates genetic counselling, carrier testing and prenatal/pre-implantation diagnosis, and often leads to a clearer prognosis. In addition, in a proportion of cases, when the mutation is known treatment can be optimised and patients are eligible for enrolment into clinical trials for gene-specific therapies. Methods: Patient genomic DNA was sheared, tagged and pooled in batches of four samples, prior to targeted capture and next generation sequencing. The enrichment reagent was designed against genes listed on the RetNet database (July 2010). Sequence data were aligned to the human genome and variants were filtered to identify potential pathogenic mutations. These were confirmed by Sanger sequencing. Results: Molecular analysis of 20 DNAs from retinal dystrophy patients identified likely pathogenic mutations in 12 cases, many of them known and/or confirmed by segregation. These included previously described mutations in ABCA4 (c.6088C>T,p.R2030*; c.5882G>A,p.G1961E), BBS2 (c.1895G>C,p.R632P), GUCY2D (c.2512C>T,p.R838C), PROM1 (c.1117C>T,p.R373C), RDH12 (c.601T>C,p.C201R; c.506G>A,p.R169Q), RPGRIP1 (c.3565C>T,p.R1189*) and SPATA7 (c.253C>T,p.R85*) and new mutations in ABCA4 (c.3328+1G>C), CRB1 (c.2832_2842+23del), RP2 (c.884-1G>T) and USH2A (c.12874A>G,p.N4292D). Conclusions: Tagging and pooling DNA prior to targeted capture of known retinal dystrophy genes identified mutations in 60% of cases. This relatively high success rate may reflect enrichment for consanguineous cases in the local Yorkshire population, and the use of multiplex families. Nevertheless this is a promising high throughput approach to retinal dystrophy diagnostics

Does targeting manual therapy and/or exercise improve patient outcomes in nonspecific low back pain? A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A central element in the current debate about best practice management of non-specific low back pain (NSLBP) is the efficacy of targeted versus generic (non-targeted) treatment. Many clinicians and researchers believe that tailoring treatment to NSLBP subgroups positively impacts on patient outcomes. Despite this, there are no systematic reviews comparing the efficacy of targeted versus non-targeted manual therapy and/or exercise. This systematic review was undertaken in order to determine the efficacy of such targeted treatment in adults with NSLBP.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>MEDLINE, EMBASE, Current Contents, AMED and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were electronically searched, reference lists were examined and citation tracking performed. Inclusion criteria were randomized controlled trials of targeted manual therapy and/or exercise for NSLPB that used trial designs capable of providing robust information on targeted treatment (treatment effect modification) for the outcomes of activity limitation and pain. Included trials needed to be hypothesis-testing studies published in English, Danish or Norwegian. Method quality was assessed using the criteria recommended by the Cochrane Back Review Group.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four high-quality randomized controlled trials of targeted manual therapy and/or exercise for NSLBP met the inclusion criteria. One study showed statistically significant effects for short-term outcomes using McKenzie directional preference-based exercise. Research into subgroups requires much larger sample sizes than traditional two-group trials and other included studies showed effects that might be clinically important in size but were not statistically significant with their samples sizes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The clinical implications of these results are that they provide very cautious evidence supporting the notion that treatment targeted to subgroups of patients with NSLBP may improve patient outcomes. The results of the studies included in this review are too patchy, inconsistent and the samples investigated are too small for any recommendation of any treatment in routine clinical practice to be based on these findings. The research shows that adequately powered controlled trials using designs capable of providing robust information on treatment effect modification are uncommon. Considering how central the notion of targeted treatment is to manual therapy principles, further studies using this research method should be a priority for the clinical and research communities.</p

The use of teledermatology for the diagnosis of skin cancer in adults

Background: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management and to improve morbidity and survival. Melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are high risk skin cancers which have the potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death, whereas basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue. Anxiety around missing early curable cases needs to be balanced against inappropriate referral and unnecessary excision of benign lesions. Teledermatology provides a way for generalist clinicians to access the opinion of a specialist dermatologist for skin lesions that they consider to be suspicious without referring the patients concerned through the normal referral pathway. Teledermatology consultations can be ‘store-and-forward’ with electronic digital images of a lesion sent to a dermatologist for review at a later time, or can be live and interactive consultations using video conferencing to connect the patient, referrer and dermatologist in real time. Objectives: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of teledermatology for the detection of any skin cancer (melanoma, BCC or cSCC) in adults, and to compare its accuracy with that of in-person diagnosis. Search methods: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. Selection criteria: Studies evaluating skin cancer diagnosis for teledermatology alone, or in comparison with face-to-face diagnosis by a specialist clinician, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation or clinical follow-up and expert opinion. Studies evaluating the referral accuracy of teledermatology compared with a reference standard of face-to-face diagnosis by a specialist clinician were also included. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS-2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition of any skin cancer was missing. Data permitting, we estimated summary sensitivities and specificities using the bivariate hierarchical model. Due to scarcity of data, no covariate investigations were undertaken for this review. For illustrative purposes, estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted on coupled forest plots for diagnostic threshold and target condition under consideration. Main results: Twenty-two studies were included reporting diagnostic accuracy data for 4057 lesions and 879 malignant cases (16 studies) and referral accuracy data for reported data for 1449 lesions and 270 ‘positive’ cases as determined by the reference standard face-to-face decision (six studies). Methodological quality was variable with poor reporting hindering assessment. The overall risk of bias was rated as high or unclear for participant selection, reference standard and participant flow and timing in at least half of all studies; the majority were considered at low risk of bias for the index test. The applicability of study findings were of high or unclear concern for the majority of studies in all domains assessed due to the recruitment of study participants from secondary care settings or specialist clinics rather than from the primary or community-based settings in which teledermatology is more likely to be used and due to the acquisition of lesion images by dermatologists or in specialist imaging units rather than by primary care clinicians. Seven studies provided data for the primary target condition of any skin cancer (1588 lesions and 638 malignancies). For the correct diagnosis of lesions as malignant using photographic images, summary sensitivity was 94.9% (95% CI 90.1 to 97.4%) and summary specificity 84.3% (95% CI 48.5 to 96.8%) (from four studies). Individual study estimates using dermoscopic images or a combination of photographic and dermoscopic images generally suggested similarly high sensitivities with highly variable specificities. Limited comparative data suggested similar diagnostic accuracy between teledermatology assessment and in-person diagnosis by a dermatologist; however, data were too scarce to draw firm conclusions. For the detection of invasive melanoma or atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants both sensitivities and specificities were more variable. Sensitivities ranged from 59% (95% CI 42% to 74%) to 100% (95% CI 54% to 100%) and specificities from 30% (95% CI 22% to 40%) to 100% (95% CI 93% to 100%), with reported diagnostic thresholds including the correct diagnosis of melanoma, classification of lesions as ‘atypical’ or ‘typical as well as the decision to refer or to excise a lesion. Referral accuracy data comparing teledermatology against a face-to-face reference standard suggested good agreement for lesions considered to require some positive action by face to face assessment (sensitivities of over 90%). For lesions considered of less concern when assessed face-to-face (e.g. for those not recommended for excision or referral), agreement was more variable with teledermatology specificities ranging from 57% (95% CI 39 to 73%) to 100% (95% CI 86% to 100%), suggesting that remote assessment is more likely recommend excision, referral or follow-up compared to in-person decisions. Authors' conclusions: Studies were generally small and heterogeneous and methodological quality was difficult to judge due to poor reporting. Bearing in mind concerns regarding the applicability of study participants and of lesion image acquisition in specialist settings, our results suggest that teledermatology can correctly identify the majority of malignant lesions. Using a more widely defined threshold to identify ‘possibly’ malignant cases or lesions that should be considered for excision is likely to appropriately triage those lesions requiring face-to-face assessment by a specialist. Despite the increasing use of teledermatology on an international level, the evidence base to support its ability to accurately diagnose lesions and to triage lesions from primary to secondary care is lacking and further prospective and pragmatic evaluation is needed

Abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone for metastatic patients starting hormone therapy: 5-year follow-up results from the STAMPEDE randomised trial (NCT00268476)

Abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone (AAP) previously demonstrated improved survival in STAMPEDE, a multiarm, multistage platform trial in men starting long-term hormone therapy for prostate cancer. This long-term analysis in metastatic patients was planned for 3 years after the first results. Standard-of-care (SOC) was androgen deprivation therapy. The comparison randomised patients 1:1 to SOC-alone with or without daily abiraterone acetate 1000 mg + prednisolone 5 mg (SOC + AAP), continued until disease progression. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Metastatic disease risk group was classified retrospectively using baseline CT and bone scans by central radiological review and pathology reports. Analyses used Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric models, accounting for baseline stratification factors. One thousand and three patients were contemporaneously randomised (November 2011 to January 2014): median age 67 years; 94% newly-diagnosed; metastatic disease risk group: 48% high, 44% low, 8% unassessable; median PSA 97 ng/mL. At 6.1 years median follow-up, 329 SOC-alone deaths (118 low-risk, 178 high-risk) and 244 SOC + AAP deaths (75 low-risk, 145 high-risk) were reported. Adjusted HR = 0.60 (95% CI: 0.50-0.71; P = 0.31 × 10−9) favoured SOC + AAP, with 5-years survival improved from 41% SOC-alone to 60% SOC + AAP. This was similar in low-risk (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.41-0.76) and high-risk (HR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.43-0.69) patients. Median and current maximum time on SOC + AAP was 2.4 and 8.1 years. Toxicity at 4 years postrandomisation was similar, with 16% patients in each group reporting grade 3 or higher toxicity. A sustained and substantial improvement in overall survival of all metastatic prostate cancer patients was achieved with SOC + abiraterone acetate + prednisolone, irrespective of metastatic disease risk group

Development and validation of a targeted gene sequencing panel for application to disparate cancers

Next generation sequencing has revolutionised genomic studies of cancer, having facilitated the development of precision oncology treatments based on a tumour’s molecular profile. We aimed to develop a targeted gene sequencing panel for application to disparate cancer types with particular focus on tumours of the head and neck, plus test for utility in liquid biopsy. The final panel designed through Roche/Nimblegen combined 451 cancer-associated genes (2.01 Mb target region). 136 patient DNA samples were collected for performance and application testing. Panel sensitivity and precision were measured using well-characterised DNA controls (n = 47), and specificity by Sanger sequencing of the Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor Interacting Protein (AIP) gene in 89 patients. Assessment of liquid biopsy application employed a pool of synthetic circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA). Library preparation and sequencing were conducted on Illumina-based platforms prior to analysis with our accredited (ISO15189) bioinformatics pipeline. We achieved a mean coverage of 395x, with sensitivity and specificity of >99% and precision of >97%. Liquid biopsy revealed detection to 1.25% variant allele frequency. Application to head and neck tumours/cancers resulted in detection of mutations aligned to published databases. In conclusion, we have developed an analytically-validated panel for application to cancers of disparate types with utility in liquid biopsy