Join forces or cheat: evolutionary analysis of a consumer-resource system

International audienceIn this contribution we consider a seasonal consumer-resource system and focus on the evolution of consumer behavior. It is assumed that consumer and resource individuals live and interact during seasons of fixed lengths separated by winter periods. All individuals die at the end of the season and the size of the next generation is determined by the the consumer-resource interaction which took place during the season. Resource individuals are assumed to reproduce at a constant rate, while consumers have to trade-off between foraging for resources, which increases their reproductive abilities, or reproducing. Firstly, we assume that consumers cooperate in such a way that they maximize each consumer's individual fitness. Secondly, we consider the case where such a population is challenged by selfish mutants who do not cooperate. Finally we study the system dynamics over many seasons and show that mutants eventually replace the original cooperating population, but are finally as vulnerable as the initial cooperating consumers

Mutation Accumulation May Be a Minor Force in Shaping Life History Traits

Is senescence the adaptive result of tradeoffs between younger and older ages or the nonadaptive burden of deleterious mutations that act at older ages? To shed new light on this unresolved question we combine adaptive and nonadaptive processes in a single model. Our model uses Penna's bit-strings to capture different age-specific mutational patterns. Each pattern represents a genotype and for each genotype we find the life history strategy that maximizes fitness. Genotypes compete with each other and are subject to selection and to new mutations over generations until equilibrium in gene-frequencies is reached. The mutation-selection equilibrium provides information about mutational load and the differential effects of mutations on a life history trait - the optimal age at maturity. We find that mutations accumulate only at ages with negligible impact on fitness and that mutation accumulation has very little effect on the optimal age at maturity. These results suggest that life histories are largely determined by adaptive processes. The non-adaptive process of mutation accumulation seems to be unimportant at evolutionarily relevant ages

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks

The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city); population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods). Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible

Het Rijksvaccinatieprogramma in Nederland. Ontwikkelingen in 2006

In 2006 several changes were made in the Dutch National Immunisation Programme (NIP): Hepatitis B vaccination at birth was added for children born to mothers positive for hepatitis B surface antigen; a new vaccine for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (a-cellular), poliomyelitis and Haemophilus influenzae (DTaP-IPV/Hib) was introduced; vaccination against pneumococcal disease was added at two, three, four and eleven months; risk groups for hepatitis B receive a combined vaccine for DTaP-IPV/Hib and HBV at the same ages; DT-IPV and aP at the age of four years were combined in one vaccine; and new MMR vaccines were introduced. As new information became available in 2006, the desirability to introduce vaccinations in the NIP for the following diseases could be (re)considered: hepatitis B (universal vaccination), rotavirus, varicella and human papillomavirus. For respiratory syncytial virus and meningococcal serogroup B disease no candidate vaccines are available yet. Extension of the programme with available vaccines for hepatitis A, influenza and tuberculosis is not (yet) recommended. The NIP in the Netherlands is effective and safe. However, continued monitoring of the effectiveness and safety of the NIP is important as changes are made regularly. Maintaining high vaccine uptake is vital to prevent (re)emergence of diseases. Furthermore, the programme should be regularly reviewed as new vaccines become available.In 2006 traden verschillende veranderingen op in het Rijksvaccinatieprogramma (RVP) in Nederland: kinderen die geboren worden uit moeders die chronisch geinfecteerd zijn met hepatitis B krijgen vlak na de geboorte een hepatitis B vaccinatie; er is een ander vaccin geintroduceerd voor difterie, kinkhoest (a-cellulair), tetanus, poliomyelitis en Haemophilus influenzae (DaKTP/Hib); vaccinatie tegen pneumokokken is toegevoegd op de leeftijd van 2, drie, vier en elf maanden; risicogroepen voor hepatitis B krijgen op diezelfde leeftijden een combinatievaccin voor DaKTP/Hib en hepatitis B; DTP en aK zijn gecombineerd in een vaccin op vierjarige leeftijd; en er zijn nieuwe BMR vaccins geintroduceerd. Op basis van informatie die in 2006 beschikbaar is gekomen wordt geadviseerd de introductie van vaccinaties voor de volgende ziekten te overwegen: hepatitis B (universele vaccinatie), rotavirus, waterpokken en humaan papillomavirus. Voor respiratoir syncytieel virus en meningokokken B zijn nog geen kandidaatvaccins beschikbaar en uitbreiding van het RVP met beschikbare vaccins voor hepatitis A, influenza en tuberculose wordt nog niet aanbevolen. Het RVP is effectief en veilig, maar voortdurende bewaking hiervan is groot belang, omdat er regelmatig veranderingen optreden. Handhaven van de hoge vaccinatiegraad is essentieel om terugkeer van ziekten te voorkomen. Verder moet regelmatig bekeken worden of het RVP aangepast moet worden aangezien er steeds nieuwe vaccins beschikbaar komen

Order of invasion affects the spatial distribution of a reciprocal intraguild predator

When intraguild predation is reciprocal, i.e. two predator species kill and feed on each other, theory predicts that well-mixed populations of the two species cannot coexist. At low levels of the shared resource, only the best competitor exists, whereas if the level of the common resource is high, the first species to arrive on a patch can reach high numbers, which prevents the invasion of the second species through intraguild predation. The order of invasion may therefore be of high importance in systems with reciprocal intraguild predation with high levels of productivity, with the species arriving first excluding the other species. However, natural systems are not well mixed and usually have a patchy structure, which gives individuals the possibility to choose patches without the other predator, thus reducing opportunities for intraguild predation. Such avoidance behaviour can cause spatial segregation between predator species, which, in turn, may weaken the intraguild interaction strength and facilitate their co-occurrence in patchy systems. Using a simple set-up, we studied the spatial distribution of two reciprocal intraguild predators when either of them was given priority on a patch with food. We released females of two predatory mite species sequentially and found that both species avoided patches on which the other species was resident. This resulted in partial spatial segregation of the species and thus a lower chance for the two species to encounter each other. Such behaviour reinforces segregation, because heterospecifics avoid patches with established populations of the other species. This may facilitate coexistence of two intraguild predators that would exclude each other in well-mixed populations

Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild

Chakarov N, Krüger O. Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild. PLoS ONE. 2010;5(12): e15229.Background: Intraguild predation (IGP) is widespread but it is often neglected that guilds commonly include many layers of dominance within. This could obscure the effects of IGP making unclear whether the intermediate or the bottom mesopredator will bear higher costs from the emergence of a new top predator. Methodology/Principal Findings: In one of the most extensive datasets of avian IGP, we analyse the impact of recolonization of a superpredator, the eagle owl Bubo bubo on breeding success, territorial dynamics and population densities of two mesopredators, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and its IG prey, the common buzzard Buteo buteo. The data covers more than two decades and encompass three adjacent plots. Eagle owls only recolonized the central plot during the second decade, thereby providing a natural experiment. Both species showed a decrease in standardized reproductive success and an increase in brood failure within 1.5 km of the superpredator. During the second decade, territory dynamics of goshawks was significantly higher in the central plot compared to both other plots. No such pattern existed in buzzards. Goshawk density in the second decade decreased in the central plot, while it increased in both other plots. Buzzard density in the second decade rapidly increased in the north, remained unchanged in the south and increased moderately in the center in a probable case of mesopredator release. Conclusions/Significance: Our study finds support for top-down control on the intermediate mesopredator and both top-down and bottom-up control of the bottom mesopredator. In the face of considerable costs of IGP, both species probably compete to breed in predator-free refugia, which get mostly occupied by the dominant raptor. Therefore for mesopredators the outcome of IGP might depend directly on the number of dominance levels which supersede them

Periodic Host Absence Can Select for Higher or Lower Parasite Transmission Rates

This paper explores the effect of discontinuous periodic host absence on the evolution of pathogen transmission rates by using Ro maximisation techniques. The physiological consequence of an increased transmission rate can be either an increased virulence, i.e. there is a transmission-virulence trade-off or ii) a reduced between season survival, i.e. there is a transmission-survival trade-off. The results reveal that the type of trade-off determines the direction of selection, with relatively longer periods of host absence selecting for higher transmission rates in the presence of a trade-off between transmission and virulence but lower transmission rates in the presence of a trade-of between transmission and between season survival. The fact that for the transmission-virulence trade-off both trade-off parameters operate during host presence whereas for the transmission-survival trade-off one operates during host presence (transmission) and the other (survival) during the period of host absence is the main cause for this difference in selection direction. Moreover, the period of host absence seems to be the key determinant of the pathogens transmission rate. Comparing plant patho-systems with contrasting biological features suggests that airborne plant pathogen respond differently to longer periods of host absence than soil-borne plant pathogens

Beyond R0 : demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 6 (2011): e20809, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020809.The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants).Supported by National Science Foundation Grant DEB-0816514 and by a Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation