Reconstructing palaeotemperatures using leaf floras – case studies for a comparison of leaf margin analysis and the coexistence approach

AbstractIn the past the problems and advantages of the nearest-living-relative (NLR) and leaf physiognomy approaches have been repeatedly discussed and it has been demonstrated that both approaches frequently show broad agreement with each other. However, detailed comparisons of the various methods for accuracy in estimation of palaeoclimate at individual localities are still lacking. Such studies are needed before data obtained from different approaches can be integrated in palaeoclimate maps and models. Moreover, there are some indications that leaf physiognomy and NLR approaches may lead to different results. In this study we applied a physiognomic method based on leaf margin analysis and the coexistence approach, a recent variation of the NLR approach, to two Tertiary palaeofloras (Schrotzburg, Middle Miocene, south Germany; Kleinsaubernitz, Upper Oligocene, east Germany). We demonstrated that both approaches can produce reasonable and consistent results if the standard error of the leaf physiognomy palaeoclimate data is taken into account. However, our results and interpretations indicate that reconstructions based on leaf physiognomy are influenced by factors not related to climate, such as sample size and differential preservation or transport. In contrast, reconstructions for the same fossil assemblages based on the coexistence approach seem to be less affected by taphonomic variables, but may be less sensitive to minor climate changes

Effect of vegetation on the Late Miocene ocean circulation

International audienceA weak and shallow thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean is related to an open Central American gateway and exchange with fresh Pacific waters. We estimate the effect of vegetation on the ocean general circulation using the atmospheric circulation model simulations for the Late Miocene climate. Caused by an increase in net evaporation in the Miocene North Atlantic, the North Atlantic water becomes more saline which enhances the overturning circulation and thus the northward heat transport. This effect reveals a potentially important feedback between the ocean circulation, the hydrological cycle and the land surface cover for Cenozoic climate evolution

Monsoon versus Uplift in Southwestern China–Late Pliocene Climate in Yuanmou Basin, Yunnan

Yuanmou Basin of Yunnan, SW China, is a famous locality with hominids, hominoids, mammals and plant fossils. Based on the published megaflora and palynoflora data from Yuanmou Basin, the climate of Late Pliocene is reconstructed using the Coexistence Approach. The results indicate a warm and humid subtropical climate with a mean annual temperature of ca. 16–17°C and a mean annual precipitation of ca. 1500–1600 mm in the Late Pliocene rather than a dry, hot climate today, which may be due to the local tectonic change and gradual intensification of India monsoon. The comparison of Late Pliocene climate in Eryuan, Yangyi, Longling, and Yuanmou Basin of Yunnan Province suggests that the mean annual temperatures generally show a latitudinal gradient and fit well with their geographic position, while the mean annual precipitations seem to be related to the different geometries of the valleys under the same monsoon system

Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost

This manuscript resulted from a Workshop in 2019 at the Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Germany, supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20100300). J. Liu also thanks the support of the Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security. T. Ehlers thanks the California Institute of Technology Moore Distinguished Scholar Program for support in completing this manuscript during a sabbatical. J. Liu and T. Bolch thank the support from the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grants no. XDA20060402, XDA20100300). We thank the German Science Foundation (DFG) for support of the TiP (Tibetan Plateau: Formation-Climate-Ecoystems) priority research program (SPP-1372) for initiating the collaborations that led to this manuscript.Interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere are most active in the critical zone, a region extending from the tops of trees to the top of unweathered bedrock. Changes in one or more of these spheres can result in a cascade of changes throughout the system in ways that are often poorly understood. Here we investigate how past and present climate change have impacted permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. We do this by compiling existing climate, hydrologic, cryosphere, biosphere, and geologic studies documenting change over decadal to glacial-interglacial timescales and longer. Our emphasis is on showing present-day trends in environmental change and how plateau ecosystems have largely flourished under warmer and wetter periods in the geologic past. We identify two future pathways that could lead to either a favorable greening or unfavorable degradation and desiccation of plateau ecosystems. Both paths are plausible given the available evidence. We contend that the key to which pathway future generations experience lies in what, if any, human intervention measures are implemented. We conclude with suggested management strategies that can be implemented to facilitate a future greening of the Tibetan Plateau.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Concept drift over geological times : predictive modeling baselines for analyzing the mammalian fossil record

Fossils are the remains organisms from earlier geological periods preserved in sedimentary rock. The global fossil record documents and characterizes the evidence about organisms that existed at different times and places during the Earth's history. One of the major directions in computational analysis of such data is to reconstruct environmental conditions and track climate changes over millions of years. Distribution of fossil animals in space and time make informative features for such modeling, yet concept drift presents one of the main computational challenges. As species continuously go extinct and new species originate, animal communities today are different from the communities of the past, and the communities at different times in the past are different from each other. The fossil record is continuously increasing as new fossils and localities are being discovered, but it is not possible to observe or measure their environmental contexts directly, because the time is gone. Labeled data linking organisms to climate is available only for the present day, where climatic conditions can be measured. The approach is to train models on the present day and use them to predict climatic conditions over the past. But since species representation is continuously changing, transfer learning approaches are needed to make models applicable and climate estimates to be comparable across geological times. Here we discuss predictive modeling settings for such paleoclimate reconstruction from the fossil record. We compare and experimentally analyze three baseline approaches for predictive paleoclimate reconstruction: (1) averaging over habitats of species, (2) using presence-absence of species as features, and (3) using functional characteristics of species communities as features. Our experiments on the present day African data and a case study on the fossil data from the Turkana Basin over the last 7 million of years suggest that presence-absence approaches are the most accurate over short time horizons, while species community approaches, also known as ecometrics, are the most informative over longer time horizons when, due to ongoing evolution, taxonomic relations between the present day and fossil species become more and more uncertain.Peer reviewe

Prospects for combined analyses of hadronic emission from γ\gamma-ray sources in the Milky Way with CTA and KM3NeT

The Cherenkov Telescope Array and the KM3NeT neutrino telescopes are major upcoming facilities in the fields of $\gamma$-ray and neutrino astronomy, respectively. Possible simultaneous production of $\gamma$ rays and neutrinos in astrophysical accelerators of cosmic-ray nuclei motivates a combination of their data. We assess the potential of a combined analysis of CTA and KM3NeT data to determine the contribution of hadronic emission processes in known Galactic $\gamma$-ray emitters, comparing this result to the cases of two separate analyses. In doing so, we demonstrate the capability of Gammapy, an open-source software package for the analysis of $\gamma$-ray data, to also process data from neutrino telescopes. For a selection of prototypical $\gamma$-ray sources within our Galaxy, we obtain models for primary proton and electron spectra in the hadronic and leptonic emission scenario, respectively, by fitting published $\gamma$-ray spectra. Using these models and instrument response functions for both detectors, we employ the Gammapy package to generate pseudo data sets, where we assume 200 hours of CTA observations and 10 years of KM3NeT detector operation. We then apply a three-dimensional binned likelihood analysis to these data sets, separately for each instrument and jointly for both. We find that the largest benefit of the combined analysis lies in the possibility of a consistent modelling of the $\gamma$-ray and neutrino emission. Assuming a purely leptonic scenario as input, we obtain, for the most favourable source, an average expected 68% credible interval that constrains the contribution of hadronic processes to the observed $\gamma$-ray emission to below 15%.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figures. Submitted to journa

Paleotemperature Proxies from Leaf Fossils Reinterpreted in Light of Evolutionary History

Present-day correlations between leaf physiognomic traits (shape and size) and climate are widely used to estimate paleoclimate using fossil floras. For example, leaf-margin analysis estimates paleotemperature using the modern relation of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the site-proportion of untoothed-leaf species (NT). This uniformitarian approach should provide accurate paleoclimate reconstructions under the core assumption that leaf-trait variation principally results from adaptive environmental convergence, and because variation is thus largely independent of phylogeny it should be constant through geologic time. Although much research acknowledges and investigates possible pitfalls in paleoclimate estimation based on leaf physiognomy, the core assumption has never been explicitly tested in a phylogenetic comparative framework. Combining an extant dataset of 21 leaf traits and temperature with a phylogenetic hypothesis for 569 species-site pairs at 17 sites, we found varying amounts of non-random phylogenetic signal in all traits. Phylogenetic vs. standard regressions generally support prevailing ideas that leaf-traits are adaptively responding to temperature, but wider confidence intervals, and shifts in slope and intercept, indicate an overall reduced ability to predict climate precisely due to the non-random phylogenetic signal. Notably, the modern-day relation of proportion of untoothed taxa with mean annual temperature (NT-MAT), central in paleotemperature inference, was greatly modified and reduced, indicating that the modern correlation primarily results from biogeographic history. Importantly, some tooth traits, such as number of teeth, had similar or steeper slopes after taking phylogeny into account, suggesting that leaf teeth display a pattern of exaptive evolution in higher latitudes. This study shows that the assumption of convergence required for precise, quantitative temperature estimates using present-day leaf traits is not supported by empirical evidence, and thus we have very low confidence in previously published, numerical paleotemperature estimates. However, interpreting qualitative changes in paleotemperature remains warranted, given certain conditions such as stratigraphically closely-spaced samples with floristic continuity