Impact of irreversibility and uncertainty on the timing of infrastructure projects

This paper argues that because of the irreversibility and uncertainty associated with Build - Operate - Transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects, their financial evaluation should also routinely include the determination of the value of the option to defer the construction start-up. This ensures that project viability is comprehensively assessed before any revenue or loan guarantees are considered by project sponsors to support the project. This paper shows that the framework can be used even in the context of the intuitive binomial lattice model. This requires estimating volatility directly from the evolution of the net operating income while accounting for the correlation between the revenue and costs functions. This approach ensures that the uncertainties usually associated with toll revenues, in particular, are thoroughly investigated and their impact on project viability is thoroughly assessed. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the framework with data from an actual (BOT) toll road project. The results show that by postponing the project for a couple of years the project turns out to be viable, whereas it was not without the deferral. The evaluation approach proposed therefore provides a better framework for determining when and the extent of government financial support, if any, that may be needed to support a BOT project on the basis of project economics. The analysis may also be applicable to private sector investment projects, which are characterized by irreversibility and a high rate of uncertainty

Prediction of photoperiodic regulators from quantitative gene circuit models

Photoperiod sensors allow physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The external coincidence hypothesis postulates that a light-responsive regulator is modulated by a circadian rhythm. Sufficient data are available to test this quantitatively in plants, though not yet in animals. In Arabidopsis, the clock-regulated genes CONSTANS (CO) and FLAVIN, KELCH, F-BOX (FKF1) and their lightsensitive proteins are thought to form an external coincidence sensor. We use 40 timeseries of molecular data to model the integration of light and timing information by CO, its target gene FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT), and the circadian clock. Among other predictions, the models show that FKF1 activates FT. We demonstrate experimentally that this effect is independent of the known activation of CO by FKF1, thus we locate a major, novel controller of photoperiodism. External coincidence is part of a complex photoperiod sensor: modelling makes this complexity explicit and may thus contribute to crop improvement

Cluster-randomised controlled trial of community mobilisation in Mumbai slums to improve care during pregnancy, delivery, postpartum and for the newborn

Background: The United Nations Millennium Development Goals look to substantial improvements in child and maternal survival. Morbidity and mortality during pregnancy, delivery and the postnatal period are prime obstacles to achieving these goals. Given the increasing importance of urban health to global prospects, Mumbai's City Initiative for Newborn Health aims to improve maternal and neonatal health in vulnerable urban slum communities, through a combination of health service quality improvement and community participation. The protocol describes a trial of community intervention aimed at improving prevention, care seeking and outcomes.Objective: To test an intervention that supports local women as facilitators in mobilising communities for better health care. Community women's groups will build an understanding of their potential to improve maternal and infant health, and develop and implement strategies to do so.Design: Cluster-randomized controlled trial.Methods: The intervention will employ local community-based female facilitators to convene groups and help them to explore maternal and neonatal health issues. Groups will meet fortnightly through a seven-phase process of sharing experiences, discussion of the issues raised, discovery of potential community strengths, building of a vision for action, design and implementation of community strategies, and evaluation.The unit of allocation will be an urban slum cluster of 1000-1500 households. 48 clusters have been randomly selected after stratification by ward. 24 clusters have been randomly allocated to receive the community intervention. 24 clusters will act as control groups, but will benefit from health service quality improvement. Indicators of effect will be measured through a surveillance system implemented by the project. Key distal outcome indicators will be neonatal mortality and maternal and neonatal morbidity. Key proximate outcome indicators will be home care practices, uptake of antenatal, delivery and postnatal care, and care for maternal and neonatal illness.Data will be collected through a vital registration system for births and deaths in the 48 study clusters. Structured interviews with families will be conducted at about 6 weeks after index deliveries. We will also collect both quantitative and qualitative data to support a process evaluation.Trial registration: Current controlled trials ISRCTN9625679

Hypereosinophilic syndromes

Hypereosinophilic syndromes (HES) constitute a rare and heterogeneous group of disorders, defined as persistent and marked blood eosinophilia (> 1.5 × 109/L for more than six consecutive months) associated with evidence of eosinophil-induced organ damage, where other causes of hypereosinophilia such as allergic, parasitic, and malignant disorders have been excluded. Prevalence is unknown. HES occur most frequently in young to middle-aged patients, but may concern any age group. Male predominance (4–9:1 ratio) has been reported in historic series but this is likely to reflect the quasi-exclusive male distribution of a sporadic hematopoietic stem cell mutation found in a recently characterized disease variant. Target-organ damage mediated by eosinophils is highly variable among patients, with involvement of skin, heart, lungs, and central and peripheral nervous systems in more than 50% of cases. Other frequently observed complications include hepato- and/or splenomegaly, eosinophilic gastroenteritis, and coagulation disorders. Recent advances in underlying pathogenesis have established that hypereosinophilia may be due either to primitive involvement of myeloid cells, essentially due to occurrence of an interstitial chromosomal deletion on 4q12 leading to creation of the FIP1L1-PDGFRA fusion gene (F/P+ variant), or to increased interleukin (IL)-5 production by a clonally expanded T cell population (lymphocytic variant), most frequently characterized by a CD3-CD4+ phenotype. Diagnosis of HES relies on observation of persistent and marked hypereosinophilia responsible for target-organ damage, and exclusion of underlying causes of hypereosinophilia, including allergic and parasitic disorders, solid and hematological malignancies, Churg-Strauss disease, and HTLV infection. Once these criteria are fulfilled, further testing for eventual pathogenic classification is warranted using appropriate cytogenetic and functional approaches. Therapeutic management should be adjusted to disease severity and eventual detection of pathogenic variants. For F/P+ patients, imatinib has undisputedly become first line therapy. For others, corticosteroids are generally administered initially, followed by agents such as hydroxycarbamide, interferon-alpha, and imatinib, for corticosteroid-resistant cases, as well as for corticosteroid-sparing purposes. Recent data suggest that mepolizumab, an anti-IL-5 antibody, is an effective corticosteroid-sparing agent for F/P-negative patients. Prognosis has improved significantly since definition of HES, and currently depends on development of irreversible heart failure, as well as eventual malignant transformation of myeloid or lymphoid cells

Using a community-based definition of poverty for targeting poor households for premium subsidies in the context of a community health insurance in Burkina Faso

Background: One of the biggest challenges in subsidizing premiums of poor households for community health insurance is the identification and selection of these households. Generally, poverty assessments in developing countries are based on monetary terms. The household is regarded as poor if its income or consumption is lower than a predefined poverty cut-off. These measures fail to recognize the multi-dimensional character of poverty, ignoring community members? perception and understanding of poverty, leaving them voiceless and powerless in the identification process. Realizing this, the steering committee of Nouna's health insurance devised a method to involve community members to better define `perceived? poverty, using this as a key element for the poor selection. The community-identified poor were then used to effectively target premium subsidies for the insurance scheme. Methods: The study was conducted in the Nouna's Health District located in northwest Burkina Faso. Participants in each village were selected to take part in focus-group discussions (FGD) organized in 41 villages and 7 sectors of Nouna's town to discuss criteria and perceptions of poverty. The discussions were audio recorded, transcribed and analyzed in French using the software NVivo 9. Results: From the FGD on poverty and the subjective definitions and perceptions of the community members, we found that poverty was mainly seen as scarcity of basic needs, vulnerability, deprivation of capacities, powerlessness, voicelessness, indecent living conditions, and absence of social capital and community networks for support in times of need. Criteria and poverty groups as described by community members can be used to identify poor who can then be targeted for subsidies. Conclusion: Policies targeting the poorest require the establishment of effective selection strategies. These policies are well-conditioned by proper identification of the poor people. Community perceptions and criteria of poverty are grounded in reality, to better appreciate the issue. It is crucial to take these perceptions into account in undertaking community development actions which target the poor. For most community-based health insurance schemes with limited financial resources, using a community-based definition of poverty in the targeting of the poorest might be a less costly alternative

A Tale of Two Markets: How Lower-end Borrowers Are Punished for Bank Regulatory Failures in Nigeria

In 2009, the Nigerian banking system witnessed a financial crisis caused by elite borrowers in the financial market. Regulatory response to the Nigerian crisis closely mirrored the international response with increased capital and liquidity thresholds for commercial banks. While the rise of consumer protection on the agenda of prudential supervisors internationally was logical in that consumer debt was the main cause of the global recession, the Nigerian banking reforms of 2009 disproportionately affected access by poorer consumers, who ironically had little to do with the underlying causes of the crisis. As lending criteria become more stringent, poorer consumers of credit products are pushed into informal markets because of liquidity-induced credit rationing. Overall, consumer protection is compromised because stronger consumer protection rules for the formal sector benefits borrowers from formal institutions who constitute the minority of borrowers in all markets. While the passage of regulation establishing credit bureaux and the National Collateral Registry will, in theory, ease access to credit especially by lower-end borrowers, the vast size of the informal market continues to compound the information asymmetry problem, fiscal policies to tackle structural economic issues such as unemployment and illiteracy remain to be initiated, and bank regulators continue to pander to elite customers with policy responses that endorse too big to fail but deems lower-end consumers too irrelevant to save. The essay concluded that addressing the wide disparity in access to credit between the rich and poor through property rights reforms to capture the capital of the informal class, promoting regulation to check loan concentration, and stimulating competition by allowing Telecommunication Companies (TELCOs) and fintech companies to carry on lending activities because of their superior knowledge of lower-end markets will facilitate greater access. The risk of systemic failure deriving from consumer credit in Nigeria is insignificant compared to the consumer vulnerabilities resulting from the exposure of consumers to unregulated products in the informal market

Governing the Global Land Grab: Multipolarity, Ideas and Complexity in Transnational Governance

Since 2008, a series of new regulatory initiatives have emerged to address large-scale land grabs. These initiatives are occurring simultaneously at multiple levels of social organization instead of a single, overarching institutional site. A significant portion of this activity is taking place at the transnational level. We suggest that transnational land governance is indicative of emerging shifts in the practice of governance of global affairs. We analyze such shifts by asking two related questions: what does land grabbing tell us about developments in transnational governance, particularly with regard to North-South relations, and what do these developments in transnational governance mean for regulating land grabbing?Desde 2008, ha surgido una serie de nuevas iniciativas regulatorias para tratar acaparamientos de tierra a gran escala. Estas iniciativas están sucediendo simultáneamente a niveles múltiples de la organización social en vez de un lugar institucional predominante. Una porción importante de esta actividad está tomando lugar al nivel transnacional. Sugerimos que la gobernanza de tierras trasnacionales es indicativa de los cambios que están surgiendo en la práctica de gobernanza de los asuntos globales. Analizamos tales cambios haciendo dos preguntas relacionadas: ¿qué nos dice el acaparamiento de tierras sobre los desarrollos en la gobernanza trasnacional, particularmente con las relaciones norte-sur?, y ¿qué significan estos desarrollos en gobernanza trasnacional para regular el acaparamiento de tierras