Identifying multi-species synchrony in response to environmental covariates

BTS was part funded by EPSRC/NERC grant EP/10009171/1.The importance of multi-species models for understanding complex ecological processes and interactions is beginning to be realised. Recent developments, such as those by Lahoz-Monfort et al. (2011), have enabled synchrony in demographic parameters across multiple species to be explored. Species in a similar environment would be expected to be subject to similar exogenous factors, although their response to each of these factors may be quite different. The ability to group species together according to how they respond to a particular measured covariate may be of particular interest to ecologists. We fit a multi-species model to two sets of similar species of garden bird monitored under the British Trust for Ornithology’s Garden Bird Feeding Survey. Posterior model probabilities were estimated using the reversible jump algorithm to compare posterior support for competing models with different species sharing different subsets of regression coefficients.There was frequently good agreement between species with small asynchronous random effect components and those with posterior support for models with shared regression coefficients; however, this was not always the case. When groups of species were less correlated, greater uncertainty was found in whether regression coefficients should be shared or not.The methods outlined in this paper can test additional hypotheses about the similarities or synchrony across multiple species that share the same environment. Through the use of posterior model probabilities, estimated using the reversible jump algorithm, we can detect multi-species responses in relation to measured covariates across any combination of species and covariates under consideration. The method can account for synchrony across species in relation to measured covariates, as well as unexplained variation accounted for using random effects. For more flexible, multi-parameter distributions, the support for species-specific parameters can also be measured.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Assessing factors associated with changes in the numbers of birds visiting gardens in winter : are predators partly to blame?

BTS was part‐funded by EPSRC/NERC grant EP/10009171/1.The factors governing the recent declines observed in many songbirds have received much research interest, in particular whether increases of avian predators have had a negative effect on any of their prey species. In addition, further discussion has centered on whether or not the choice of model formulation has an effect on model inference. The study goal was to evaluate changes in the number of 10 songbird species in relation to a suite of environmental covariates, testing for any evidence in support of a predator effect using multiple model formulations to check for consistency in the results. We compare two different approaches to the analysis of long‐term garden bird monitoring data. The first approach models change in the prey species between 1970 and 2005 as a function of environmental covariates, including the abundance of an avian predator, while the second uses a change–change approach. Significant negative relationships were found between Eurasian Sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus and three of the 10 species analyzed, namely house Sparrow Passer domesticus, starling Sturnus vulgaris, and blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus. The results were consistent under both modeling approaches. It is not clear if this is a direct negative impact on the overall populations of these species or a behavioral response of the prey species to avoid feeding stations frequented by Sparrowhawks (which may in turn have population consequences, by reducing available resources). The species showing evidence of negative effects of Sparrowhawks were three of the four species most at risk to Sparrowhawk predation according to their prevalence in the predator's diet. The associations could be causal in nature, although in practical terms the reduction in the rate of change in numbers visiting gardens accredited to Sparrowhawks is relatively small, and so unlikely to be the main driver of observed population declines.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Spatio-temporal dynamics and aetiology of proliferative leg skin lesions in wild British finches

Proliferative leg skin lesions have been described in wild finches in Europe although there have been no large-scale studies of their aetiology or epizootiology to date. Firstly, disease surveillance, utilising public reporting of observations of live wild finches was conducted in Great Britain (GB) and showed proliferative leg skin lesions in chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) to be widespread. Seasonal variation was observed, with a peak during the winter months. Secondly, pathological investigations were performed on a sample of 39 chaffinches, four bullfinches (Pyrrhula pyrrhula), one greenfinch (Chloris chloris) and one goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) with proliferative leg skin lesions and detected Cnemidocoptes sp. mites in 91% (41/45) of affected finches and from all species examined. Fringilla coelebs papillomavirus (FcPV1) PCR was positive in 74% (23/31) of birds tested: a 394 base pair sequence was derived from 20 of these birds, from all examined species, with 100% identity to reference genomes. Both mites and FcPV1 DNA were detected in 71% (20/28) of birds tested for both pathogens. Histopathological examination of lesions did not discriminate the relative importance of mite or FcPV1 infection as their cause. Development of techniques to localise FcPV1 within lesions is required to elucidate the pathological significance of FcPV1 DNA detection.We thank the members of the public and BTO Garden BirdWatch participants who reported garden bird morbidity and mortality incidents and our colleagues, Katie Beckmann, Shaheed Macgregor, Ricardo Castro Cesar de Sa, Lydia Franklinos and Tim Hopkins from the Zoological Society of London; Kirsi Peck from the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds; BTO staff members in the Garden BirdWatch team; the staff at Abbey Veterinary Services and the Animal & Plant Health Agency (Daniel Hicks, Richard Irvine, Alejandro Núñez and Scott Reid) for their assistance with this investigation. This work was financially supported by the following organisations; Birdcare Standards Association, British Trust for Ornithology, British Veterinary Association Animal Welfare Foundation, CJ Wildbird Foods, Cranswick Pet Products, UK Department for the Environment Food & Rural Affairs and Welsh Government through the Animal & Plant Health Agency’s Diseases of Wildlife Scheme Scanning Surveillance Programme (Project ED1600), Esmée Fairbairn Foundation, Gardman Ltd, Institute of Zoology, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and the Universities Federation for Animal Welfare. RAJW was supported by the Moncloa of Excellence PICATA programme and Crafoord Foundation Sweden (grant number 20160971). Molecular and sequencing costs were funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, (Ref: CGL2013-41642-P/BOS)

Diversity, fragmentation, and connectivity across the UK amphibian and reptile data management landscape

Large-scale biodiversity monitoring remains a challenge in science and policy. ‘Biodiversity Observation Networks’ provide an integrated infrastructure for monitoring biodiversity through timely discovery, access, and re-use of data, but their establishment relies on an in-depth understanding of existing monitoring effort. We performed a scoping review and network analysis to assess the scope of available data on amphibians and reptiles in the UK and catalogue the mobilisation of information across the data landscape, thereby highlighting existing gaps. The monitoring portfolio has grown rapidly in recent decades, with over three times as many data sources than there are amphibian and reptile species in the UK now available. We identified 45 active sources of ‘FAIR’ (‘Findable’, ‘Accessible’, ‘Interoperable’ and ‘Reusable’) data. The taxonomic, geographic and temporal coverage of datasets appears largely uneven and no single source is currently suitable for producing robust multispecies assessments on large scales. A dynamic and patchy exchange of data occurs between different recording projects, recording communities and digital data platforms. The National Biodiversity Network Atlas is a highly connected source but the scope of its data (re-)use is potentially limited by insufficient accompanying metadata. The emerging complexity and fragmented nature of this dynamic data landscape is likely to grow without a concerted effort to integrate existing activities. The factors driving this complexity extend beyond the UK and to other facets of biodiversity. We recommend integration and greater stakeholder collaboration behind a coordinated infrastructure for data collection, storage and analysis, capable of delivering comprehensive assessments for large-scalecbiodiversity monitorin

Emerging Infectious Disease leads to Rapid Population Decline of Common British Birds

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period

The influence of muscle mass in the assessment of lower limb strength in COPD [Abstract]

The influence of muscle mass in the assessment of lower limb strength in COPD [Abstract

Emergence of a Novel Avian Pox Disease in British Tit Species

Avian pox is a viral disease with a wide host range. In Great Britain, avian pox in birds of the Paridae family was first diagnosed in a great tit (Parus major) from south-east England in 2006. An increasing number of avian pox incidents in Paridae have been reported each year since, indicative of an emergent infection. Here, we utilise a database of opportunistic reports of garden bird mortality and morbidity to analyse spatial and temporal patterns of suspected avian pox throughout Great Britain, 2006–2010. Reports of affected Paridae (211 incidents) outnumbered reports in non-Paridae (91 incidents). The majority (90%) of Paridae incidents involved great tits. Paridae pox incidents were more likely to involve multiple individuals (77.3%) than were incidents in non-Paridae hosts (31.9%). Unlike the small wart-like lesions usually seen in non-Paridae with avian pox in Great Britain, lesions in Paridae were frequently large, often with an ulcerated surface and caseous core. Spatial analyses revealed strong clustering of suspected avian pox incidents involving Paridae hosts, but only weak, inconsistent clustering of incidents involving non-Paridae hosts. There was no spatial association between Paridae and non-Paridae incidents. We documented significant spatial spread of Paridae pox from an origin in south-east England; no spatial spread was evident for non-Paridae pox. For both host clades, there was an annual peak of reports in August/September. Sequencing of the avian poxvirus 4b core protein produced an identical viral sequence from each of 20 great tits tested from Great Britain. This sequence was identical to that from great tits from central Europe and Scandinavia. In contrast, sequence variation was evident amongst virus tested from 17 non-Paridae hosts of 5 species. Our findings show Paridae pox to be an emerging infectious disease in wild birds in Great Britain, apparently originating from viral incursion from central Europe or Scandinavia

Cytokines and Inflammatory Mediators [30-39]: 30. The LPS Stimulated Production of Interleukin-10 is not Associated with -819C/T and -592C/A Promoter Polymorphisms in Healthy Indian Subjects

Background: Interleukin-10 is a pivotal immunoregulatory cytokine with pleiotropic effects on the immune system. IL-10 promoter polymorphisms have been associated with disease susceptibility and the ability to secrete IL-10 in vitro. We suspected that the association of the widely studied -819C/T and -592C/A polymorphisms with the IL-10 production might vary between ethnic groups. Therefore, we examined the association of -819 C/T and -592 C/A promoter polymorphisms with in vitro LPS stimulated secretion of IL-10 in normal healthy Indian volunteers. Methods: Peripheral blood was collected from 103 healthy volunteers and diluted whole blood cultures were set up with 100 ng/ml of LPS as stimulant: supernatant was collected at 24 h and IL-10 levels were assayed by ELISA. Genotyping was done for -819C/T polymorphism in 101 individuals and -592C/A polymorphism in 68 individuals by polymerase chain reaction followed by RFLP. The differences in IL-10 production between the genotypes were analysed by ANOVA. Results: There were 30, 47 and 24 individuals with the CC, CT and TT genotypes with a minor allele (T) frequency of 47% for the -819C/T polymorphism. The CC and TT genotypes at position -819 were strongly associated with CC and AA genotypes at -592 position suggestive of strong linkage disequilibrium. There was no association between the -819 genotype and the in vitro LPS stimulated IL-10 levels. Conclusions: The -819C/T and the -592 C/A polymorphisms of the IL-10 promoter region are not significantly associated with LPS stimulated IL-10 production healthy Indian subjects. Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

BHPR research: qualitative1. Complex reasoning determines patients' perception of outcome following foot surgery in rheumatoid arhtritis

Background: Foot surgery is common in patients with RA but research into surgical outcomes is limited and conceptually flawed as current outcome measures lack face validity: to date no one has asked patients what is important to them. This study aimed to determine which factors are important to patients when evaluating the success of foot surgery in RA Methods: Semi structured interviews of RA patients who had undergone foot surgery were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of interviews was conducted to explore issues that were important to patients. Results: 11 RA patients (9 ♂, mean age 59, dis dur = 22yrs, mean of 3 yrs post op) with mixed experiences of foot surgery were interviewed. Patients interpreted outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, frequently positive change in one aspect contrasted with negative opinions about another. Overall, four major themes emerged. Function: Functional ability & participation in valued activities were very important to patients. Walking ability was a key concern but patients interpreted levels of activity in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on change in functional ability more than overall level. Positive feelings of improved mobility were often moderated by negative self perception ("I mean, I still walk like a waddling duck”). Appearance: Appearance was important to almost all patients but perhaps the most complex theme of all. Physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet patients saw these as distinct separate concepts. Patients need to legitimize these feelings was clear and they frequently entered into a defensive repertoire ("it's not cosmetic surgery; it's something that's more important than that, you know?”). Clinician opinion: Surgeons' post operative evaluation of the procedure was very influential. The impact of this appraisal continued to affect patients' lasting impression irrespective of how the outcome compared to their initial goals ("when he'd done it ... he said that hasn't worked as good as he'd wanted to ... but the pain has gone”). Pain: Whilst pain was important to almost all patients, it appeared to be less important than the other themes. Pain was predominately raised when it influenced other themes, such as function; many still felt the need to legitimize their foot pain in order for health professionals to take it seriously ("in the end I went to my GP because it had happened a few times and I went to an orthopaedic surgeon who was quite dismissive of it, it was like what are you complaining about”). Conclusions: Patients interpret the outcome of foot surgery using a multitude of interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than other factors in the overall outcome of the surgery. Future research into foot surgery should incorporate the complexity of how patients determine their outcome Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

31st Annual Meeting and Associated Programs of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC 2016) : part two

Background The immunological escape of tumors represents one of the main ob- stacles to the treatment of malignancies. The blockade of PD-1 or CTLA-4 receptors represented a milestone in the history of immunotherapy. However, immune checkpoint inhibitors seem to be effective in specific cohorts of patients. It has been proposed that their efficacy relies on the presence of an immunological response. Thus, we hypothesized that disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis would synergize with our oncolytic vaccine platform PeptiCRAd. Methods We used murine B16OVA in vivo tumor models and flow cytometry analysis to investigate the immunological background. Results First, we found that high-burden B16OVA tumors were refractory to combination immunotherapy. However, with a more aggressive schedule, tumors with a lower burden were more susceptible to the combination of PeptiCRAd and PD-L1 blockade. The therapy signifi- cantly increased the median survival of mice (Fig. 7). Interestingly, the reduced growth of contralaterally injected B16F10 cells sug- gested the presence of a long lasting immunological memory also against non-targeted antigens. Concerning the functional state of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), we found that all the immune therapies would enhance the percentage of activated (PD-1pos TIM- 3neg) T lymphocytes and reduce the amount of exhausted (PD-1pos TIM-3pos) cells compared to placebo. As expected, we found that PeptiCRAd monotherapy could increase the number of antigen spe- cific CD8+ T cells compared to other treatments. However, only the combination with PD-L1 blockade could significantly increase the ra- tio between activated and exhausted pentamer positive cells (p= 0.0058), suggesting that by disrupting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis we could decrease the amount of dysfunctional antigen specific T cells. We ob- served that the anatomical location deeply influenced the state of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. In fact, TIM-3 expression was in- creased by 2 fold on TILs compared to splenic and lymphoid T cells. In the CD8+ compartment, the expression of PD-1 on the surface seemed to be restricted to the tumor micro-environment, while CD4 + T cells had a high expression of PD-1 also in lymphoid organs. Interestingly, we found that the levels of PD-1 were significantly higher on CD8+ T cells than on CD4+ T cells into the tumor micro- environment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, we demonstrated that the efficacy of immune check- point inhibitors might be strongly enhanced by their combination with cancer vaccines. PeptiCRAd was able to increase the number of antigen-specific T cells and PD-L1 blockade prevented their exhaus- tion, resulting in long-lasting immunological memory and increased median survival