Chapter 3: Evaluating the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on clouds and climate

Any attempt to reconcile observed surface temperature changes within the last 150 years to changes simulated by climate models that include various atmospheric forcings is sensitive to the changes attributed to aerosols and aerosol-cloud-climate interactions, which are the main contributors that may well balance the positive forcings associated with greenhouse gases, absorbing aerosols, ozone related changes, etc. These aerosol effects on climate, from various modeling studies discussed in Menon (2004), range from +0.8 to -2.4 W m{sup -2}, with an implied value of -1.0 W m{sup -2} (range from -0.5 to -4.5 W m{sup -2}) for the aerosol indirect effects. Quantifying the contribution of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions remain complicated for several reasons some of which are related to aerosol distributions and some to the processes used to represent their effects on clouds. Aerosol effects on low lying marine stratocumulus clouds that cover much of the Earth's surface (about 70%) have been the focus of most of prior aerosol-cloud interaction effect simulations. Since cumulus clouds (shallow and deep convective) are short lived and cover about 15 to 20% of the Earth's surface, they are not usually considered as radiatively important. However, the large amount of latent heat released from convective towers, and corresponding changes in precipitation, especially in biomass regions due to convective heating effects (Graf et al. 2004), suggest that these cloud systems and aerosol effects on them, must be examined more closely. The radiative heating effects for mature deep convective systems can account for 10-30% of maximum latent heating effects and thus cannot be ignored (Jensen and Del Genio 2003). The first study that isolated the sensitivity of cumulus clouds to aerosols was from Nober et al. (2003) who found a reduction in precipitation in biomass burning regions and shifts in circulation patterns. Aerosol effects on convection have been included in other models as well (cf. Jacobson, 2002) but the relative impacts on convective and stratiform processes were not separated. Other changes to atmospheric stability and thermodynamical quantities due to aerosol absorption are also known to be important in modifying cloud macro/micro properties. Linkages between convection and boreal biomass burning can also impact the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, radiation and cloud microphysical properties via transport of tropospheric aerosols to the lower stratosphere during extreme convection (Fromm and Servranckx 2003). Relevant questions regarding the impact of biomass aerosols on convective cloud properties include the effects of vertical transport of aerosols, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, vertical shift in latent heat release, phase shift of precipitation, circulation and their impacts on radiation. Over land surfaces, a decrease in surface shortwave radiation ({approx} 3-6 W m{sup -2} per decade) has been observed between 1960 to 1990, whereas, increases of 0.4 K in land temperature during the same period that occurred have resulted in speculations that evaporation and precipitation should also have decreased (Wild et al. 2004). However, precipitation records for the same period over land do not indicate any significant trend (Beck et al. 2005). The changes in precipitation are thought to be related to increased moisture advection from the oceans (Wild et al. 2004), which may well have some contributions from aerosol-radiation-convection coupling that could modify circulation patterns and hence moisture advection in specific regions. Other important aspects of aerosol effects, besides the direct, semi-direct, microphysical and thermodynamical impacts include alteration of surface albedos, especially snow and ice covered surfaces, due to absorbing aerosols. These effects are uncertain (Jacobson, 2004) but may produce as much as 0.3 W m{sup -2} forcing in the Northern hemisphere that could contribute to melting of ice and permafrost and change in the length of the season (e.g. early arrival of Spring) (Hansen and Nazarenko, 2004). Besides the impacts of aerosols on the surface albedos in the polar regions, and the thermodynamical impacts of Arctic haze (composed of water soluble sulfates, nitrates, organic and black carbon (BC)), the dynamical response to Arctic haze (through the radiation-circulation feedbacks that cause changes in pressure patterns) is thought to have the potential to modify the mode and strength of large-scale teleconnection patterns such as the Barrents Sea Oscillation that could affect other climate regimes (mainly Europe) (Rinke et al. 2004). Additionally, via the Asian monsoon, wind patterns over the eastern Mediterranean and lower stratospheric pollution at higher latitudes (Lelieveld et al. 2002) are thought to be linked to the pollutants found in Asia, indicating the distant climate impacts of aerosols

Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030

We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present-day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estimate both changes to air quality and climate for different time periods and emission amounts. We include both the direct aerosol effect and indirect aerosol effects for liquid-phase clouds. Future changes for the 2030 A1B scenario are examined, focusing on the Arctic and Asia, since changes are pronounced in these regions. Our results for the different time periods include both emission changes and physical climate changes. We find that the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) has a large impact on photochemical processing, decreasing ozone amount and ozone forcing, especially for the future (2030-1995). Ozone forcings increase from 0 to 0.12 Wm{sup -2} and the total aerosol forcing increases from -0.10 Wm{sup -2} to -0.94 Wm{sup -2} (AIE increases from -0.13 to -0.68 Wm{sup -2}) for 1995-1980 versus 2030-1995. Over the Arctic we find that compared to ozone and the direct aerosol effect, the AIE contributes the most to net radiative flux changes. The AIE, calculated for 1995-1980, is positive (1.0 Wm{sup -2}), but the magnitude decreases (-0.3Wm{sup -2}) considerably for the future scenario. Over Asia, we evaluate the role of biofuel and transportation-based emissions (for BC and OM) via a scenario (2030A) that includes a projected increase (factor of two) in biofuel and transport-based emissions for 2030 A1B over Asia. Projected changes from present-day due to the 2030A emissions versus 2030 A1B are a factor of 4 decrease in summertime precipitation in Asia. Our results are sensitive to emissions used. Uncertainty in present-day emissions suggest that future climate projections warrant particular scrutiny

Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response to Changes in Urban Albedos and Associated CO2 Offsets

The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle

Evaluation of Aerosol-cloud Interaction in the GISS Model E Using ARM Observations

Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another

Global Cooling: Increasing World-Wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2

Modification of urban albedos reduces summertime urban temperatures, resulting in a better urban air quality and building air-conditioning savings. Furthermore, increasing urban albedos has the added benefit of reflecting some of the incoming global solar radiation and countering to some extent the effects of global warming. In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). Using reflective materials, both roof and the pavement albedos can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60% (a U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills). On a global basis, our preliminary estimate is that increasing the world-wide albedos of urban roofs and paved surfaces will induce a negative radiative forcing on the earth equivalent to removing {approx} 22-40 Gt of CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere. Since, 55$25/tonne of CO{sub 2}, a 40-73 Gt CO{sub 2} emission reduction from changing the albedo of roofs and paved surfaces is worth about $1,000B to 1800B. These estimated savings are dependent on assumptions used in this study, but nevertheless demonstrate considerable benefits that may be obtained from cooler roofs and pavements

Aerosol indirect effects

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (tau a) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. cloud droplet number concentration (N d) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between (tau a) and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and tau a as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld–tau a relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between tau a and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - tau a relationship show a strong positive correlation between tau a and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of tau a, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of −1.5±0.5Wm−2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clearand cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic tau a and satellite-retrieved Nd–tau a regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of −0.4±0.2Wm−2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of −0.7±0.5Wm−2, with a total estimate of −1.2±0.4Wm−2

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes