Maintenance and repair: too big to ignore

Most models of aggregate economic activity, like the standard neoclassical growth model, ignore the fact that equipment and structures are maintained and repaired. Once physical capital is purchased in these models, there are typically no more decisions made regarding its use. The theme of this article is that there is evidence to suggest that incorporating expenditures on the maintenance and repair of physical capital into models of aggregate economic activity will change the quantitative answers to some key questions that have been addressed with these models. This evidence is primarily from a little-used economywide survey in Canada. The survey shows that the activity of maintaining and repairing equipment and structures is an activity that is generally both large relative to investment and a substitute for investment to some extent—and to a large extent during some episodes.Econometric models

Explaining cross-country income differences

This chapter reviews the literature that tries to explain the disparity and variation of GDP per worker and GDP per capita across countries and across time. There are many potential explanations for the different patterns of development across countries, including differences in luck, raw materials, geography, preferences, and economic policies. We focus on differences in economic policies and ask to what extent can differences in policies across countries account for the observed variability in income levels and their growth rates. We review estimates for a wide range of policy variables. In many cases, the magnitude of the estimates is under debate. Estimates found by running cross-sectional growth regressions are sensitive to which variables are included as explanatory variables. Estimates found using quantitative theory depend in critical ways on values of parameters and measures of factor inputs for which there is little consensus. In this chapter, we review the ongoing debates of the literature and the progress that has been made thus far.Income

Valencia bridge fire tests: Validation of simplified and advanced numerical approaches to model bridge fire scenarios

[EN] Bridge fires are a major concern and the subject of many studies that use numerical models. However, experimental studies are still required to test the validity of these numerical models and improve their accuracy. This paper uses temperature results of the Valencia bridge fire tests carried out at the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, in Valencia (Spain) to calibrate the fire models that constitute the first step in modeling any bridge fire event. The calibration is carried out by both a simplified approach (Heskestad and Hamada's correlation) and advanced numerical models (Computational Fluid Dynamics models built with the Fire Dynamics Simulator -FDS- software). The Valencia bridge fire tests involved four fire scenarios under a composite bridge with Heat Release Rate (HRR) values between 361 and 1352 kW. The results show that applying Heskestad and Hamada's correlation gave good results when used within its limits of application (HRR < 0.764 MW) but did not work well beyond them, which means it would be suitable for planning reduced scale bridge fire tests but not in the analysis of real bridge fires. On the other hand, FDS provides good predictions of the temperatures and can be used to study bridge fire responses. This work is therefore an important step forward in the study of bridge fires and towards the improvement of the resilience of infrastructure networks vis-a-vis fire hazards. It also highlights the problems that can arise in fire tests in the open air, the influence of the wind being of critical importance.Funding for this research was provided by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Research Project BIA 2011-27104). The authors are grateful to the Infrastructure and Safety departments of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia and the City of Valencia Fire Department (Cuerpo de Bomberos de Valencia), which provided crucial support in conducting the tests.Alós-Moya, J.; Paya-Zaforteza, I.; Hospitaler Pérez, A.; Loma-Ossorio, E. (2019). Valencia bridge fire tests: Validation of simplified and advanced numerical approaches to model bridge fire scenarios. Advances in Engineering Software (Online). 128:55-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advengsoft.2018.11.003S556812

Comparison of Fire Model Predictions with Experiments Conducted in a Hangar With a 15 Meter Ceiling

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive capabilities of fire models using the results of a series of fire experiments conducted in an aircraft hangar with a ceiling height of about 15 m. This study is designed to investigate model applicability at a ceiling height where only a limited amount of experimental data is available. This analysis deals primarily with temperature comparisons as a function of distance from the fire center and depth beneath the ceiling. Only limited velocity measurements in the ceiling jet were available but these are also compared with those models with a velocity predictive capability

Onasemnogene abeparvovec preserves bulbar function in infants with presymptomatic spinal muscular atrophy: a post-hoc analysis of the SPR1NT trial

Bulbar function in spinal muscular atrophy has been defined as the ability to meet nutritional needs by mouth while maintaining airway protection and communicate verbally. The effects of disease-modifying treatment on bulbar function are not clear. A multidisciplinary team conducted post-hoc analyses of phase 3 SPR1NT trial data to evaluate bulbar function of infants at risk for spinal muscular atrophy who received one-time gene replacement therapy (onasemnogene abeparvovec) before symptom onset. Three endpoints represented adequate bulbar function in SPR1NT: (1) absence of physiologic swallowing impairment, (2) full oral nutrition, and (3) absence of adverse events indicating pulmonary instability. Communication was not assessed in SPR1NT. We descriptively assessed numbers/percentages of children who achieved each endpoint and all three collectively. SPR1NT included infants <6 postnatal weeks with two (n = 14) or three (n = 15) copies of the survival motor neuron 2 gene. At study end (18 [two-copy cohort] or 24 [three-copy cohort] months of age), 100% (29/29) of patients swallowed normally, achieved full oral nutrition, maintained pulmonary stability, and achieved the composite endpoint. When administered to infants before clinical symptom onset, onasemnogene abeparvovec allowed children at risk for spinal muscular atrophy to achieve milestones within published normal ranges of development and preserve bulbar function

Fire-induced structural failure: the World Trade Center, New York

Fire investigation has generally concentrated on determination of the cause and origin of a fire. Methodologies developed for this purpose have thus focused on the dynamics of fire growth and investigation of its effect on different objects within the structure affected by the fire. It is unusual to see a fire investigation emphasising structural damage as a way to obtain information for fire reconstruction. The series of dramatic fire events that occurred on 11 September 2001 within the World Trade Center, New York complex have emphasised the need to introduce structural analysis as a companion to evaluation of a fire timeline. Only a combined analysis is capable of providing a complete reconstruction of the event and therefore a solid determination of causality. This paper presents a methodology to establish, by means of modern structural and fire analysis tools, the sequence of events leading to a structural failure. This analysis will be compared with classic cause and origin techniques, emphasising the importance of a comprehensive study. Specific structural features and fire conditions that lead to unique forms of failure will be discussed, establishing the complexity of linking fire, structure characteristics and failure mode. The collapse of buildings 1 and 2 of the World Trade Center will be used to illustrate different forms of failure and the fires that cause them

Development of an International SMA Bulbar Assessment for Inter-professional Administration

BACKGROUND: Progressive weakness can affect bulbar muscles in individuals with moderate to severe forms of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). The paucity of standardized, valid bulbar assessments capturing clinically significant deficits in SMA impedes the ability to monitor function, facilitate intervention, or detect treatment response. OBJECTIVE: To fill this void, an international multidisciplinary team gathered to develop an agreed upon consensus-derived assessment of bulbar function in SMA for inter-professional administration to enhance our ability to monitor disease progression, support clinical management, and evaluate treatment effects. METHODS: Fifty-six international clinicians experienced in SMA were invited and engaged using the Delphi method over multiple rounds of web-based surveys to establish consensus. RESULTS: Serial virtual meetings occurred with 42 clinicians (21 speech and language therapists, 11 physical therapists, 5 neurologists, 4 occupational therapists, and 1 dentist). Seventy-two validated assessments of bulbar function were identified for potential relevance to individuals with SMA (32 accessible objective, 11 inaccessible objective, 29 patient-reported outcomes). Delphi survey rounds (n = 11, 15, 15) achieved consensus on individual items with relevance and wording discussed. Key aspects of bulbar function identified included: oral intake status, oral facial structure and motor strength, swallowing physiology, voice & speech, and fatigability. CONCLUSIONS: Multidisciplinary clinicians with expertise in bulbar function and SMA used Delphi methodology to reach consensus on assessments/items considered relevant for SMA across all age groups. Future steps include piloting the new scale moving towards validation/reliability. This work supports the advancement of assessing bulbar function in children and adults with SMA by a variety of professionals

“This is proof”? Forensic evidence and ambiguous material culture at Treblinka extermination camp

In recent years, a forensic archaeological project at Treblinka extermination camp has uncovered significance evidence relating to the mass murder that took place there. A number of questions emerged regarding the provenance and origins of objects discovered as part of this work, and why they had remained undiscovered for over seventy years. These discoveries led to an opportunity to confirm and challenge the history of the extermination camp, and demands (from the public) to view the objects. This paper will outline how archaeologists and artists came together to reflect on these issues, whilst simultaneously providing access to the new findings

Modelling the effects of boundary walls on the fire dynamics of informal settlement dwellings

AbstractCharacterising the risk of the fire spread in informal settlements relies on the ability to understand compartment fires with boundary conditions that are significantly different to normal residential compartments. Informal settlement dwellings frequently have thermally thin and leaky boundaries. Due to the unique design of these compartments, detailed experimental studies were conducted to understand their fire dynamics. This paper presents the ability of FDS to model these under-ventilated steel sheeted fire tests. Four compartment fire tests were modelled with different wall boundary conditions, namely sealed walls (no leakage), non-sealed walls (leaky), leaky walls with cardboard lining, and highly insulated walls; with wood cribs as fuel and ISO-9705 room dimensions. FDS managed to capture the main fire dynamics and trends both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, using a cell size of 6 cm, the ability of FDS to accurately model the combustion at locations with high turbulent flows (using the infinitely fast chemistry mixing controlled combustion model), and the effect of leakage, was relatively poor and both factors should be further studied with finer LES filter width. Using the validated FDS models, new flashover criteria for thermally thin compartments were defined as a combination of critical hot gas layer and wall temperatures. Additionally, a parametric study was conducted to propose an empirical correlation to estimate the onset Heat Release Rate required for flashover, as current knowledge fails to account properly for large scale compartments with thermally thin boundaries. The empirical correlation is demonstrated to have an accuracy of ≈ ± 10% compared with the FDS models