SURFACE AND AEROSOL EFFECTS ON THE SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON HYDROCLIMATE

This work targets important couplings in the South Asian monsoon system at interannual or longer time-scales and associated processes and mechanisms: aerosol-hydroclimate, atmosphere-ocean, and land-atmosphere. Anomalous springtime absorbing aerosols loading over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) leads to large-scale variations of the monsoon: cloudiness reduction associated with increased aerosols is suggested to play an important role in triggering surface heating over India, which strengthens the monsoon. Indeed, a closer analysis with high resolution data depicts a complex interplay between aerosols, dynamics and precipitation. Interestingly, observations do not provide any evidence for the Elevated Heat Pump hypothesis, a mechanism proposed for the aerosol-monsoon link. Current coupled climate models, which have been extensively used to study aerosol-monsoon interactions, are shown to have large, systematic, and coherent biases in precipitation, evaporation, sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon. Models are also found to deficiently portray local and non-local air-sea interactions. For example, they tend to emphasize local oceanic forcing on precipitation or to poorly simulate the relationship between SST and evaporation. The Indian monsoon rainfall-SST link is also spuriously misrepresented, suggesting caution when interpreting model-based findings. Both regional and remote forcings modulate the annual cycle of the heat-low over the desert areas (including the Thar Desert) between Pakistan and northwestern India, source of most of the dust loading over India. Land-surface heating has a limited role in the development of the low. Regional orography and monsoon summertime deep-convection over the Bay of Bengal, with its upstream descent to the west and related northerlies, contribute to the strengthening of the low, indicating a monsoon modulation on desert processes, including dust emission. The Thar Desert is expanding westward and the potential impact of land-cover change (without consideration of the additional aerosol loading) on summer monsoon hydroclimate and circulation is found to be significant. Locally, the atmospheric water cycle weakens, air temperature cools and subsidence prevails. An anomalous northwesterly flow over the IGP weakens the monsoon circulation over eastern India, causing precipitation to decrease. Orographic enhanced precipitation occurs over the Eastern Himalayas and southern China

Hemispheric-wide climate response to regional COVID-19-related aerosol emission reductions: the prominent role of atmospheric circulation adjustments

The national and global restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic led to a sudden, albeit temporary, emission reduction of many greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols, whose near-term climate impact were previously found to be negligible when focusing on global- and/or annual-mean scales. Our study aims to investigate the monthly scale coupled climate-and-circulation response to regional, COVID-19-related aerosol emission reductions, using the output from 10 Earth system models participating in the Covid model intercomparison project (CovidMIP). We focus on January–February and March–May 2020, which represent the seasons of largest emission changes in sulfate (SO2) and black carbon (BC). During January–February (JF), a marked decrease in aerosol emissions over eastern China, the main emission region, resulted in a lower aerosol burden, leading to an increase in surface downwelling radiation and ensuing surface warming. Regional sea-level pressure and circulation adjustments drive a precipitation increase over the Maritime Continent, embedded in a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)- and/or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like response over the Pacific, in turn associated with a northwestward displacement and zonal shrinking of the Indo-Pacific Walker cell. Remote climate anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, including a weakening of the Siberian High and Aleutian Low, as well as anomalous temperature patterns in the northern mid-latitudes, arise primarily as a result of stationary Rossby wave trains generated over East Asia. The anomalous climate pattern and driving dynamical mechanism reverse polarity between JF and MAM (March–May) 2020, which is shown to be consistent with an underlying shift of the dominant region of SO2 emission reduction from eastern China in JF to India in MAM. Our findings highlight the prominent role of large-scale dynamical adjustments in generating a hemispheric-wide aerosol climate imprint even on short timescales, which are largely consistent with longer-term (decadal) trends. Furthermore, our analysis shows the sensitivity of the climate response to the geographical location of the aerosol emission region, even after relatively small, but abrupt, emission changes. Scientific advances in understanding the climate impact of regional aerosol perturbations, especially the rapidly evolving emissions over China and India, are critically needed to reduce current uncertainties in near-future climate projections and to develop scientifically informed hazard mitigation and adaptation policies.</p

Predicting Transmission Suitability of Mosquito-Borne Diseases under Climate Change to Underpin Decision Making

The risk of the mosquito-borne diseases malaria, dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to shift both temporally and spatially under climate change. As climate change projections continue to improve, our ability to predict these shifts is also enhanced. This paper predicts transmission suitability for these mosquito-borne diseases, which are three of the most significant, using the most up-to-date climate change projections. Using a mechanistic methodology, areas that are newly suitable and those where people are most at risk of transmission under the best- and worst-case climate change scenarios have been identified. The results show that although transmission suitability is expected to decrease overall for malaria, some areas will become newly suitable, putting na&iuml;ve populations at risk. In contrast, transmission suitability for dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to increase both in duration and geographical extent. Although transmission suitability is expected to increase in temperate zones for a few months of the year, suitability remains focused in the tropics. The highest transmission suitability in tropical regions is likely to exacerbate the intense existing vulnerability of these populations, especially children, to the multiple consequences of climate change, and their severe lack of resources and agency to cope with these impacts and pressures. As these changes in transmission suitability are amplified under the worst-case climate change scenario, this paper makes the case in support of enhanced and more urgent efforts to mitigate climate change than has been achieved to date. By presenting consistent data on the climate-driven spread of multiple mosquito-borne diseases, our work provides more holistic information to underpin prevention and control planning and decision making at national and regional levels

Increased Amazon basin wet-season precipitation and river discharge since the early 1990s driven by tropical Pacific variability

International audienceThe Amazon Basin, the largest watershed on Earth, experienced a significant increase in wet-season precipitation and high-season river discharge from the early 1990s to early 2010s. Some studies have linked the increased Amazon Basin hydrologic cycle to decadal trends of increased Pacific trade winds, eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) cooling, and associated strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation. However, it has been difficult to disentangle the role of Pacific decadal variability from the impacts of greenhouse gases and other external climate drivers over the same period. Here, we separate the contributions of external forcings from those of Pacific decadal variability by comparing two large ensembles of climate model experiments with identical radiative forcing agents but imposing different tropical Pacific wind stress. One ensemble constrains tropical Pacific wind stress to its long-term climatology, suppressing tropical Pacific decadal variability; the other ensemble imposes the observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies, simulating realistic tropical Pacific decadal variability. Comparing the Amazon Basin hydroclimate response in the two ensembles allows us to distinguish the contributions of external forcings common to both simulations from those related to Pacific trade wind variability. For the 1992–2012 trend, the experiments with observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies simulate strengthening of the Walker circulation between the Pacific and South America and sharpening of the Pacific–Atlantic interbasin SST contrast, driving increased Amazon Basin wet-season precipitation and high-season discharge. In contrast, these circulation and hydrologic intensification trends are absent in the simulations with climatological tropical Pacific wind stress. This work underscores the importance of Pacific decadal variability in driving hydrological cycle changes and modulating the hydroclimate impacts of global warming over the Amazon Basin

Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming

Changes in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at various global warming levels during the 21st century are examined using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiments. The externally forced component of this relationship (i.e. forced by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols emissions) strengthens from present-day to +1.5 °C, and then weakens until +3 °C. These changes are characterized by variations in strength and location of the core of El Niño-related warming and associated deep convection anomalies over the equatorial Pacific leading to circulation anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region. Under global warming, the ENSO–EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO, through changes in the EAWM strength and the shift of the ENSO pattern. Anthropogenic aerosols play a key role in influencing the ENSO–EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5 °C)

Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases

Reliable attribution of Asian summer monsoon variations to aerosol forcing is critical to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional water availability, which is of utmost importance for risk management and adaptation planning in this densely populated region. Yet, simulating the monsoon remains a challenge for climate models that suffer from long-standing biases, undermining their reliability in attributing anthropogenically forced changes. We analyze a suite of climate model experiments to identify a link between model biases and monsoon responses to Asian aerosols and associated physical mechanisms, including the role of large-scale circulation changes. The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model's ability to simulate the spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon winds, clouds, and precipitation across Asia, which modulates the magnitude and efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, an important component of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response. We found a striking contrast between the early- and late-summer aerosol-driven changes ascribable to opposite signs and seasonal evolution of the biases in the two regions. A realistic simulation of the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is crucial to realize the full extent of the aerosol impact over Asia. These findings provide important implications for better understanding and constraining the diversity and inconsistencies of model responses to aerosol changes over Asia in historical simulations and future projections