Hungary : financial sector reform in a socialist economy

Financial reforms in formerly centrally planned economies take a different form than in market economies because they imply not only liberalizing the system but also reshaping the structure and functioning of financial markets. And the reforms must be designed to facilitate the conduct of monetary policy under rapidly changing economic circumstances. To fulfill this role, financial reforms should: (1) provide the authorities with monetary policy instruments that contribute to short-term stabilization; and (2) provide the incentives for inducing a more efficient intermediation of savings though the financial markets. In this context, the authors identify the main tasks and targets of financial reform and comment on the key development of the Hungarian process. Hungary has made substantial progress, they conclude, but macrofinancial indicators suggest that administrative and technical obstacles remain and that supporting measures must be deepened. The four steps needed are: (1) the ability of the monetary authority to conduct monetary policy must be enhanced; (2) the operating and financial condition of financial intermediaries must be improved; (3) healthy competition among financial intermediaries must be encouraged; and (4) a prudential regulatory framework that does not discriminate against the development of securities market must be established.Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

Modelling fraud detection by attack trees and Choquet integral

Modelling an attack tree is basically a matter of associating a logical ÒndÓand a logical ÒrÓ but in most of real world applications related to fraud management the Ònd/orÓlogic is not adequate to effectively represent the relationship between a parent node and its children, most of all when information about attributes is associated to the nodes and the main problem to solve is how to promulgate attribute values up the tree through recursive aggregation operations occurring at the Ònd/orÓnodes. OWA-based aggregations have been introduced to generalize ÒndÓand ÒrÓoperators starting from the observation that in between the extremes Òor allÓ(and) and Òor anyÓ(or), terms (quantifiers) like ÒeveralÓ ÒostÓ ÒewÓ ÒomeÓ etc. can be introduced to represent the different weights associated to the nodes in the aggregation. The aggregation process taking place at an OWA node depends on the ordered position of the child nodes but it doesnÕ take care of the possible interactions between the nodes. In this paper, we propose to overcome this drawback introducing the Choquet integral whose distinguished feature is to be able to take into account the interaction between nodes. At first, the attack tree is valuated recursively through a bottom-up algorithm whose complexity is linear versus the number of nodes and exponential for every node. Then, the algorithm is extended assuming that the attribute values in the leaves are unimodal LR fuzzy numbers and the calculation of Choquet integral is carried out using the alpha-cuts.Fraud detection; attack tree; ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator; Choquet integral; fuzzy numbers.

Interplay of network dynamics and ties heterogeneity on spreading dynamics

The structure of a network dramatically affects the spreading phenomena unfolding upon it. The contact distribution of the nodes has long been recognized as the key ingredient in influencing the outbreak events. However, limited knowledge is currently available on the role of the weight of the edges on the persistence of a pathogen. At the same time, recent works showed a strong influence of temporal network dynamics on disease spreading. In this work we provide an analytical understanding, corroborated by numerical simulations, about the conditions for infected stable state in weighted networks. In particular, we reveal the role of heterogeneity of edge weights and of the dynamic assignment of weights on the ties in the network in driving the spread of the epidemic. In this context we show that when weights are dynamically assigned to ties in the network an heterogeneous distribution is able to hamper the diffusion of the disease, contrary to what happens when weights are fixed in time.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figure

The Genomic Context and Corecruitment of SP1 Affect ERRα Coactivation by PGC-1α in Muscle Cells

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivator 1α (PGC-1α) coordinates the transcriptional network response to promote an improved endurance capacity in skeletal muscle, eg, by coactivating the estrogen-related receptor-α (ERRα) in the regulation of oxidative substrate metabolism. Despite a close functional relationship, the interaction between these 2 proteins has not been studied on a genomic level. We now mapped the genome-wide binding of ERRα to DNA in a skeletal muscle cell line with elevated PGC-1α and linked the DNA recruitment to global PGC-1α target gene regulation. We found that, surprisingly, ERRα coactivation by PGC-1α is only observed in the minority of all PGC-1α recruitment sites. Nevertheless, a majority of PGC-1α target gene expression is dependent on ERRα. Intriguingly, the interaction between these 2 proteins is controlled by the genomic context of response elements, in particular the relative GC and CpG content, monomeric and dimeric repeat-binding site configuration for ERRα, and adjacent recruitment of the transcription factor specificity protein 1. These findings thus not only reveal a novel insight into the regulatory network underlying muscle cell plasticity but also strongly link the genomic context of DNA-response elements to control transcription factor-coregulator interactions

Changing prices... changing times: evidence for Italy

This paper examines the process of adjustment of prices in Italy to determine whether nominal flexibility, measured by the frequency of price changes, has increased in the recent years of protracted stagnation and double-dip recession. The analysis is based on a large micro-level dataset of individual prices collected monthly by Istat from 2006 to 2013 for the Consumer Price Index. We find that both the percentage of prices adjusted monthly and the average size of the adjustment have risen significantly since the 1996-2001 period, in particular for downward changes. This greater flexibility is related in part to the spread of modern distribution structures. Our estimates further indicate that the recession has affected the price adjustment mechanism: for manufactures, price cuts have become larger and more frequent, while increases are more moderate; for services, both the frequency and the size of price increases have diminished

Modeling the effects of variable feeding patterns of larval ticks on the transmission of Borrelia lusitaniae and Borrelia afzelii

Spirochetes belonging to the Borrelia burgdoferi sensu lato (sl) group cause Lyme Borreliosis (LB), which is the most commonly reported vector-borne zoonosis in Europe. B. burgdorferi sl is maintained in nature in a complex cycle involving Ixodes ricinus ticks and several species of vertebrate hosts. The transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi sl is complicated by the varying competence of animals for different genospecies of spirochetes that, in turn, vary in their capability of causing disease. In this study, a set of difference equations simplifying the complex interaction between vectors and their hosts (competent and not for Borrelia) is built to gain insights into conditions underlying the dominance of B. lusitaniae (transmitted by lizards to susceptible ticks) and the maintenance of B. afzelii (transmitted by wild rodents) observed in a study area in Tuscany, Italy. Findings, in agreement with field observations, highlight the existence of a threshold for the fraction of larvae feeding on rodents below which the persistence of B. afzelii is not possible. Furthermore, thresholds change as nonlinear functions of the expected number of nymph bites on mice, and the transmission and recovery probabilities. In conclusion, our model provided an insight into mechanisms underlying the relative frequency of different Borrelia genospecies, as observed in field studies.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, to be published in Theoretical Population Biolog

A Dark-Necked Drywood Termite (Isoptera: Kalotermitidae) in Italy: Description of Kalotermes italicus sp. nov.

The yellow-necked drywood termite, Kalotermes flavicollis (F.), so called due to the Yellow pronotum of its alates, is the only species in the genus Kalotermes known for Europe. In some Italian localities, K. flavicollis swarms can contain a small proportion of alates with a dark pronotum, but otherwise not different from the normally colored K. flavicollis. This color variation was described by G. Becker in 1955 as Kalotermes flavicollis var. fuscicollis. During collecting trips in central Italy, we found in Grosseto Marina (Tuscany) a Kalotermes population whose alates all have a very dark pronotum. Compared with K. flavicollis alates, Grosseto alates also have paler wings and smaller arolia. Grosseto soldiers have eyes smaller than those of K. flavicollis soldiers. Kalotermes sp. form Grosseto also differs morphologically from the other Kalotermes species known for the circum-Mediterranean lands. The population from Grosseto has mitochondrial DNA sequences (a partial sequence of the control region and a fragment including a portion of COI, tRNA-Leu and a portion of COI) quite different from K. flavicollis (p-distance: 5.6-7.3%). Some Kalotermes populations from Tuscany and Marche, morphologically classifiable as K. flavicollis, have sequences similar to those of Grosseto Kalotermes (p-distance: 0.1-1.0%). These populations are possibly hybrids between K. flavicollis and Kalotermes sp. from Grosseto. Because of its morphologic and genetic distinctive features, we describe Kalotermes sp. from Grosseto as Kalotermes italicus sp. nov

Conectando formação e processos de design: definição de um modelo eficaz para treinamento em operações de design

Attentive considerations on the value of research in design in terms of producing and promoting knowledge within the innovation processes bring to light the necessity to create a multidisciplinary action model, able to correlate with transversal skills and with the system of values and culture that characterizes the settings where research centers, training centers, businesses and institutions operate. The tested model proposed is a workshop in which the actions of research and training are able to perform, simultaneously, through design tools. This has resulted in the construction of a community of institutions - universities, businesses, government agencies - where research and training have become opportunities for discussion for all involved parties. Furthermore, whenever possible, through experimentation and continuous exchange of ideas, new scenarios can be put together as a result of sharing experiences and skills in a mutual and continuous learning process. The model – workshop finds its justification in the desire to redirect the paths of research and training for design in a single open container, capable of creating strong links with the territory and outline a continuous offer both in terms of training, production and dissemination of skills. Key words: training, territory, research, innovation, contemporary action.Considerações atentas sobre o valor da pesquisa em design em termos de produção e promoção de conhecimentos no âmbito da inovação de processos trazem à tona a necessidade de criar um modelo de ação multidisciplinar. Este modelo é capaz de se correlacionar com competências transversais e com o sistema de valores e cultura que caracteriza as definições em centros de pesquisa, centros de formação, empresas e instituições operadoras. O modelo testado proposto é um workshop em que as ações de investigação e formação podem ser realizadas, simultaneamente, através de ferramentas de design. Isso resultou na construção de uma comunidade de instituições – universidades, empresas, agências governamentais – onde a investigação e formação têm oportunidades de se tornar a discussão para todas as partes envolvidas. Além disso, sempre que possível, por meio da experimentação e do intercâmbio permanente de ideias, novos cenários podem ser concebidos como resultado da partilha de experiências e competências em um processo mútuo e contínuo de aprendizado. O modelo workshop encontra a sua justificação no desejo de reorientar os caminhos da investigação e da formação para o projeto em um único recipiente aberto, capaz de criar laços fortes com o território e delinear uma oferta contínua em termos de formação, de produção e difusão de habilidades. Palavras-chave: formação, territórios, investigação, inovação, ação contemporânea

Mudanças no regime de precipitações do este do município La Pampa, Argentina

The eastern area of the Province of La Pampa, Argentina lies in a transition zone between the humid temperate climate stretching east and the steppe climate stretching west. The area is very sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns, especially when changes are sudden and there is no time to take adaptive measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. In such cases, agricultural production and the balance of the environment are threatened by potential disaster. In order to determine the long-term occurrence of such phenomena, long-term annual precipitation series (1921-2009) from 14 stations in the study area were analyzed using the procedure of hydrometeorological series segmentation. The results for the study period show a succession of abrupt increases, with annual precipitation increasing by about 30%. Each increase in rainfall can be seen as a fostering factor for the expansion of crop planted area in the following years. However, in recent years, there has been an abrupt and significant decrease in precipitation with a marked return to the conditions that prevailed at the beginning of the period. Because agriculture intensified during the period of increased rainfall, the carrying capacity of the environment could be exceeded if rainfall continues to decrease over a long period of time, causing a decline in production accompanied by environmental degradation.O leste do Município de La Pampa, Argentina está em uma área de transição entre o clima temperado e úmido que estende para o leste e o clima de estepe que estende para o oeste, é muito sensível às mudanças no regime de precipitações, especialmente, quando elas ocorrem de forma abrupta, não dando o tempo necessário para levar a cabo medidas adaptativas, para evitar impactos negativos das mudanças climáticas que afetam a produção agrária e o equilíbrio ambiental. Com objetivo de estudar mudanças no regime de precipitação, foram analisadas séries anuais de precipitação (1921 - 2009) de 14 estações da área de estudo, usando uma metodologia de segmentação de séries hidrometeorológicas. Os resultados indicaram que no período de estudo, aconteceram uma sucessão de mudanças abruptas, de sinal positivo em que a precipitação anual aumentou ao redor de 30%. O incremento das precipitações pode ser considerado uma das causas que explicam a expansão da área cultivada nos anos subsequentes a esses aumentos na precipitação. Não obstante, nos últimos anos, foi observada uma mudança abrupta de sinal negativo que reduziu significativamente a precipitação com um retorno marcado para as condições que prevaleceram no início do período analisado. Devido à expansão da agricultura observada no período de incremento das chuvas e, posteriormente, a diminuição dessas chuvas durante um longo período, poderia resultar na queda da produtividade e resultar em uma deterioração ambiental.Fil: Pérez, Silvia. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologias Agrícolas; ArgentinaFil: Sierra, Eduardo Mario. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologias Agrícolas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; Argentin