Modeling Ecosystems Using P Systems: The Bearded Vulture, a Case Study

The Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is an endangered species in Europe that feeds almost exclusively on bone remains of wild and domestic ungulates. In this paper, we present a model of an ecosystem related to the Bearded Vulture in the Pyrenees (NE Spain), by using P systems. The evolution of six species is studied: the Bearded Vulture and five subfamilies of domestic and wild ungulates upon which the vulture feeds. P systems provide a high level computational modeling framework which integrates the structural and dynamic aspects of ecosystems in a comprehensive and relevant way. P systems explicitly represent the discrete character of the components of an ecosystem by using rewriting rules on multisets of objects which represent individuals of the population and bones. The inherent stochasticity and uncertainty in ecosystems is captured by using probabilistic strategies. In order to experimentally validate the P system designed, we have constructed a simulator that allows us to analyze the evolution of the ecosystem under different initial conditions.Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia TIN2006-13425Junta de Andalucía TIC-58

Intereses, motivos y actitudes hacia el deporte en adolescentes : diferencias en función del nivel de práctica

El trabajo que se presenta forma parte de un estudio descriptivo más amplio en el que se analizan los hábitos, motivos, intereses y actitudes hacia el deporte en una muestra de adolescentes, estudiantes de 2º ciclo de E.S.O. Concretamente se analizan diferentes variables en función de la frecuencia e intensidad de la práctica deportiva en jóvenes practicantes. Se estudió una muestra representativa de la población mencionada compuesta por 1999 sujetos. El instrumento utilizado fue un cuestionario de elaboración propia y los resultados muestran que el nivel de práctica deportiva (bajo, medio, alto) establece diferencias en relación a motivos, actitudes y en definitiva patrones de actividad deportiva.The present analysis is part of a broader descriptive study that assess habits, motives, interests and attitudes toward sport practice in a sample of adolescents that study 2nd ESO. We analyse different variables in relation to frequency and levels of practice in young sport participants. We studied a representative sample of the population analysed (N=1999 subjects). We designed an instrument that includes the different variables. Results show that the level of sport practice (low, medium, high) implies significant differences in relation to motives attitudes and patterns of physical activity

Testing the Goodness of Supplementary Feeding to Enhance Population Viability in an Endangered Vulture

[Background]: Human-predator conflicts are directly or indirectly threatening many species with extinction. Thus, biologists are urged to find simple solutions to complex situations while avoiding unforeseen conservation outcomes. The provision of supplementary food at artificial feeding sites (AFS) is frequently used in the conservation of scavenger bird populations currently suffering from indirect poisoning, although no scientific studies on its effectiveness have been conducted.[Methodology/Principal Findings]: We used a long-term data set of 95 individually marked birds from the largest European core of the endangered bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) to test the long-term effects of specific AFS for bearded vultures on their survival rates (by CMR models) and population dynamics (by Monte Carlo simulations) in an area where fatalities derived from illegal poisoning and the use of other toxics like veterinary drugs have increased over the last several years. Our data support the positive relationship between the use of AFS and survival. However, contrary to theoretical predictions (e.g. high and more stable adult survival among long-lived species), the use of AFS increased only survival of pre-adults. Moreover, AFS buffered the effects of illegal poisoning on this age-class, while adult survival decreased over years. Our simulations predicted a maximum value of extinction probability over a time horizon of 50 years. Population projections run with survival rates expected in scenarios without poisoning predicted the situation of least conservation concern, while including only AFS can maintain a large floater surplus that may delay population decline but fails to reduce poisoning risk among adults.[Conclusions/Significance]: Although AFS are not effective to save bearded vultures from an expected population decline, they delay population extinction and can be a useful tool for prolonging population viability while combating illegal and indirect poisoning. The eradication of different sources of poisoning is of top priority to ensure the long-term viability of this and many other species.Financial support for AM was obtained from the Departament of Medi Ambient i Habitatge of Generalitat de Catalunya and Ministry of Environment. MC was supported by an Excellence post-doctoral contract (Junta de Andalucía).Peer reviewe

Solutions for archiving data in long-term studies: a reply to Whitlock et al.

James A. Mills et al.-- Letter.Peer Reviewe

Conservation of the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus in Spain (1966-2011): a bibliometric review of threats, research and adaptive management

Detecting and quantifying threats and researching and implementing management actions are key to improving the conservation status of endangered species. Bibliometric analysis can constitute a useful tool for the evaluation of such questions from a long-term perspective. Taking as a case study the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus in Spain, we tested relationships between population dynamics, research efforts, existing threats and conservation milestones. The population growth of the species (from 206 pairs in 1976 to 2,068 in 2011) was parallelled by the increase in the total number of publications, the number of articles in SCI journals and the number of published works dealing with aspects of conservation, threats and management. These results are discussed in terms of cause-effect relationships taking into account that the influence of other non-mutually exclusive factors could also probably explain such associations. Similarly, we analysed the trend of the Cinereous Vulture breeding population with respect to different threats and indices of food availability, obtaining a positive correlation with the increase in big-game hunting bags in Spain. With respect to conservation milestones, we concluded that the current situation is positive in terms of the protection of the species and its habitat, with the situation in relation to food availability being unclear. Finally, we reviewed the main conservation actions that have been taken for the species in Spain and how these have been progressively modified based on new scientific and technical evidence, as an example of adaptive management applied to conservatio

Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements

Vultures vs livestock: conservation relationships in an emerging conflict between humans and wildlife

Human-wildlife conflict is emerging as an important topic in conservation. Carnivores and birds of prey are responsible for most conflicts with livestock and game but since the mid 1990s a new conflict is emerging in south-west Europe: the presumed killing of livestock by griffon vultures Gyps fulvus. Lack of scientific data and magnification of the problem by the media are increasing alarm amongst the public, and political pressures to implement management decisions have not been based on scientific evidence. We compiled information on 1,793 complaints about attacks by griffon vultures on livestock, lodged with Spanish authorities from 1996 to 2010. Spain is home to the majority (95%) of griffon vultures and other scavengers in the European Union. Most of the cases occurred in areas of high livestock density, affected principally sheep (49%) and cows (31%), and were associated with spring birthing times (April-June). On average 69% of the complaints made annually were rejected because of a lack of evidence about whether the animal was alive before being eaten. The total economic cost of compensation was EUR 278,590 from 2004 to 2010. We discuss possible ways to mitigate this emerging human-wildlife conflict. These need to include the participation of livestock farmers, authorities, scientists and conservation group

A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles

All of the environmental conditions in nature act on an organism simultaneously. However, in experimental studies of the factors influencing metamorphosis, each factor needs to be examined individually in order to disentangle its specific effects. However, it is challenging to then build properly integrated models which include data on all of the different factors evaluated in different experiments. This study set out to develop a predictive model which could synthesize the results of several experiments on survival, development and growth of Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) tadpole guilds. The proposed Population Dynamic P System (PDP) model enables estimates of growth and development during the larval phase, under different environmental conditions, weather conditions, predator density, and pond characteristics and management. The architecture of the model allows the inclusion of an indefinite number of parameters and interactions, with all inputs interacting in parallel, and enables solutions to complex modeling approaches. Using the model with a range of field data, we found that the importance of predation pressure on Natterjack toad tadpole guilds exceeds the potential effects of variations in temperature and precipitation. The impact of introduced invasive predators therefore arguably poses the greatest threat to this species. This type of model holds promise as a reliable management and conservation tool for this and other species, especially where interactions between environmental factors make the impacts of individual factors difficult to predict

Spatially explicit poisoning risk affects survival rates of an obligate scavenger

Obligate scavengers such as vultures provide critical ecosystem services and their populations have undergone severe declines in Asia and Africa. Intentional poisoning is a major threat to vultures in Africa, yet the impact on vulture populations of where poisoned carcasses are positioned is not known. We used re-sightings of 183 African white-backed vultures captured and tagged in two regions of South Africa, some 200 km apart, to estimate spatial differences in relative survival rates across life stages. Juvenile survival rates were similar in the two regions, whilst subadult and adult survival rates differed significantly. Using agent-based modelling, we show that this pattern of relative survival rates is consistent between regions that differ in intensity of poisoning, despite the proximity of the two regions. This may have important consequences for vulture conservation and the targeting of conservation efforts, particularly with regard to the efficacy of “vulture safe zones” around vulture breeding populations

Effect of Maternal Dietary Condensed Tannins from Sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) on Gut Health and Antioxidant-Immune Crosstalk in Suckling Lambs

Ewes fed sainfoin (a source of condensed tannins "CT") may influence the homeostasis of the gastrointestinal tract of suckling lambs. This study investigated the effects of CT from sainfoin in the maternal diet on plasma fructosamine, faecal coccidian excretion, and gene expression of immune and antioxidant markers in jejunum and ileum of suckling lambs. Twelve Rasa Aragonesa lambs with their dams were selected. The maternal diet was based on fresh sainfoin (SAINFOIN, n = 6) and sainfoin + polyethylene-glycol (SAINFOIN + PEG, as a CT-binder, n = 6) plus a daily supplement of 200 g barley in both groups. A lower percentage of lambs that shed more than 10 oocysts/g faeces was observed in SAINFOIN compared to the SAINFOIN + PEG group (p = 0.07). Jejunal gene expression of transforming growth factor-β1, tumour necrosis factor-α, and glutathione peroxidase (GPX) 1 and 4 were lower in the SAINFOIN group (p < 0.05). In contrast, ileal catalase and GPX2 expression were increased in the SAINFOIN group (p < 0.05). Overall, the results suggest that the presence of CT in the dams' diets has a positive effect on reducing excreted coccidian oocysts and favours antioxidant-immune crosstalk at gut level in suckling lambs.This research was funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities of Spain and the European Regional Development Funds, grant number INIA RTA2017-00008-C02-01 and 02