Towards an integrated management of water resource issues in the Dyle catchment (Scheldt basin, Belgium): the European MULINO project (MULti-sectoral, INtegrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale)

The pressure on water resources is continuously increasing in Europe. If a great deal of scientific knowledge is available in many fields, this knowledge is often treated in isolation. To support the scientific basis for integrated water management, the MULINO project, an acronym for MULti-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system (DSS) for the sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale, funded by the European Union, is currently executed. The purpose of the MULINO project is to provide a tool to improve the integrated management of water resources at the catchment scale, following the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD, J.O.CE, 2000). The DSS developed is a computer system based on hydrological modelling, multi-disciplinary indicators and multi-criteria evaluation procedures. The underlying design of the DSS is based on the Driving Forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Responses framework for reporting on environmental issues (EEA, 1999; OECD, 1993). One case study is the 700 km² Dyle catchment situated in the centre of Belgium (50°38N 4°45E) and part of the Scheldt basin. A coupling of an integrated hydrological model (SWAT: Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Arnold et al., 1993) with land use change modelling (SFARMMOD, Audsley et al., 1979) is developed in close collaboration with local end users and stakeholders. This work will provide a useful tool to analyse water resources management alternatives and to assist local managers in complex problems such as flooding, nitrate and pesticides contamination of waters, as to identify solutions for the implementation of the WFD at the catchment scale

Developing an integrated approach to understanding the effects of climate change and other environmental alterations at a flyway level

The environmental consequences of global climate change are predicted to have their greatest effect at high latitudes and have great potential to impact fragile tundra ecosystems. The Arctic tundra is a vast biodiversity resource and provides breeding areas for many migratory geese. Importantly, tundra ecosystems also currently act as a global carbon “sink”, buffering carbon emissions from human activities. In January 2003, a new three year project was implemented to understand and model the interrelationships between goose population dynamics, conservation, European land use/agriculture and climate change. A range of potential future climate and land-use scenarios will be applied to the models and combined with information from field experiments on grazing and climate change in the Arctic. This paper describes the content of the research programme as well as issues in relation to engaging stakeholders with the project

Developing an integrated approach to understanding the effects of climate change and other environmental alterations at a flyway level

The environmental consequences of global climate change are predicted to have their greatest effect at high latitudes and have great potential to impact fragile tundra ecosystems. The Arctic tundra is a vast biodiversity resource and provides breeding areas for many migratory geese. Importantly, tundra ecosystems also currently act as a global carbon “sink”, buffering carbon emissions from human activities. In January 2003, a new three year project was implemented to understand and model the interrelationships between goose population dynamics, conservation, European land use/agriculture and climate change. A range of potential future climate and land-use scenarios will be applied to the models and combined with information from field experiments on grazing and climate change in the Arctic. This paper describes the content of the research programme as well as issues in relation to engaging stakeholders with the project

Three billion new trees in the EU’s biodiversity strategy: low ambition, but better environmental outcomes?

The EU Biodiversity strategy aims to plant 3 billion trees by 2030, in order to improve ecosystem restoration and biodiversity. Here, we compute the land area that would be required to support this number of newly planted trees by taking account of different tree species and planting regimes across the EU member states. We find that 3 billion trees would require a total land area of between 0.81 and 1.37 Mha (avg. 1.02 Mha). The historic forest expansion in the EU since 2010 was 2.44 Mha, meaning that despite 3 billion trees sounding like a large number this target is considerably lower than historic afforestation rates within the EU, i.e. only 40% of the past trend. Abandoned agricultural land is often proposed as providing capacity for afforestation. We estimate agricultural abandoned land areas from the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment+ database using two time thresholds (abandonment since 2009 or 2014) to identify potential areas for tree planting. The area of agricultural abandoned land was 2.6 Mha (potentially accommodating 7.2 billion trees) since 2009 and 0.2 Mha (potentially accommodating 741 million trees) since 2014. Our study highlights that sufficient space could be available to meet the 3 billion tree planting target from abandoned land. However, large-scale afforestation beyond abandoned land could have displacement effects elsewhere in the world because of the embodied deforestation in the import of agricultural crops and livestock. This would negate the expected benefits of EU afforestation. Hence, the EU\u27s relatively low ambition on tree planting may actually be better in terms of avoiding such displacement effects. We suggest that tree planting targets should be set at a level that considers physical ecosystem dynamics as well as socio-economic conditions

Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

Scenario development for integrated analysis focuses on adopting an interdisciplinary approach covering key elements of the biophysical environment as well as changes in livelihoods, education, economics and governance both locally and internationally. Most importantly, the development of these scenarios generates a dialogue across institutions, stakeholders and sectors, with the use of common data and agreement on shared qualitative and quantitative futures. The scenarios adopted combine three alternative future climates and three socio-economic development pathways. Quantification of these issues included estimation based on published data, expert knowledge and stakeholder engagement, particularly where data are most uncertain or unknown. This chapter demonstrates this approach for coastal Bangladesh

Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Nino warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C)/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly, through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg(CH4)/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. There remain many uncertainties in the emission and oxidation of isoprene which may affect the exact size of this effect, but its magnitude is large enough that it should remain important

Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity