Using Ecological Modelling Tools to Inform Policy Makers of Potential Changes in Crop Distribution: An Example with Cacao Crops in Latin America

International audienceSpecies distribution models (SDM) is a powerful simulation tool that has become widely used in the ecological and agronomical sciences. The use of easily available presence data, global downscaled climate layers and software that can run on desktop computer has contributed to their popularity. The most used application is based on maximum entropy models that fit presence data to a series of environmental descriptors. SDM can be used to predict crop distribution under future conditions but the level of uncertainty of those models can be very high. The best use of these models is to be used as generators of hypothesis to be combined with other type of analysis

Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further. (Résumé d'auteur

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

In this work the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1°C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e. when UTCI is above 26°C and 32°C. The UTCI’s ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health

Comparative study of the stability of bimatoprost 0.03% and latanoprost 0.005%: A patient-use study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The stability of ophthalmic preparations in multidose containers is influenced by the preservative as well as the stability of the active ingredient. Unstable drugs may require refrigeration to preserve their active ingredient level and they are more likely to degrade over time, therefore becoming more susceptible to degradation based on patient mishandling. The purpose of this study was to determine the degree of molecular degradation that occurs in bimatoprost and latanoprost in a patient-use setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was an open-label, laboratory evaluation of the relative stability of bimatoprost and latanoprost. Patients presently using bimatoprost (n = 31) or latanoprost (n = 34) were identified at 2 clinical sites in Brazil. Patients were instructed to use and store their drops as usual and return all used medication bottles between day 28 and day 34 after opening.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Bimatoprost demonstrated no degradation, but latanoprost degraded at various levels. The mean age of bimatoprost was 43.0 ± 3.4 days and the mean age of latanoprost was 43.9 ± 2.8 days (P = .072). The mean percentage of labeled concentration was 103.7% in the bimatoprost bottles and 88.1% in the latanoprost bottles (P < 001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that bimatoprost maintained ≥100% concentration throughout the study period while latanoprost did not.</p

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

Background: To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Methods: Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient’s specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient’s residence and the laboratory. Results: There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall. Conclusion: The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory

On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk

The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall may not change much but heavy storms may become more or less frequent). The paper studies changes over time in the probability that some high threshold is exceeded. The model is such that the threshold does not need to be specified, the results hold for any high threshold. For simplicity a certain linear trend is studied depending on one real parameter. Estimation and testing procedures (is there a trend?) are developed. Simulation results are presented. The method is applied to trends in heavy rainfall at 18 gauging stations across Germany and The Netherlands. A tentative conclusion is that the trend seems to depend on whether or not a station is close to the sea.Comment: 38 page

Corruption Kills: Estimating the Global Impact of Corruption on Children Deaths

BACKGROUND: Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. METHODS: The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. FINDINGS: The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2)= 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. INTERPRETATIONS: Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related

Relationship between the expansion of drylands and the intensification of Hadley circulation during the late twentieth century

The changes in coverage by arid climate and intensity of the Hadley circulation during the second half of the twentieth century were examined using observations and the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of Twentieth-Century Coupled Climate Model (20C3M) simulations. It was found that the area of dry climate, which comprises steppe and desert climates following the K&#246;ppen climate classification, expanded to an appreciable extent in observation and, to a lesser degree, in MME simulation. The areal extent of steppe climate (the outer boundary of arid climate) tends to encroach on the surrounding climate groups, which, in turn, feeds desert climate (the inner part of arid climate) and causes it to grow. This result indicates the importance of accurate prediction for climate regimes that border steppe climate. Concomitant with the expansion of drylands, the observed intensity of the Hadley cell is persistently enhanced, particularly during boreal winter, suggesting the validity of a self-induction of deserts through a positive biogeophysical feedback (also known as Charney’s cycle). In comparison, the simulated Hadley circulation in the MME mean remains invariant in time. The current climate models, therefore, disagree with the observation in the long-term linkage between desertification and Hadley cell. Finally, the implication of such discrepancy is discussed as a possible guidance to improve models