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Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models : an Application to the Polish Credit Market
We review Bayesian inference for dynamic latent variable models using the data augmentation principle. We detail the difficulties of stimulating dynamic latent variables in a Gibbs sampler. We propose an alternative specification of the dynamic disequilibrium model which leads to a simple simulation procedure and renders Bayesian inference fully operational. Identification issues are discussed. We conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter, Best, Carlin, and van der Linde (2002) for a disequilibrium model of the Polish credit market.Latent variables, Disequilibrium models, Bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, Credit rationing
Appendix 4 : Relocation : What Matters ? Competition or/and Co-ordination.
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Hugues Faure, 1928â2003: The unique adventure of his life
Hugues Faure was not only one of the greatest pioneers of the study of the Quaternary and a man of outstanding personality, with the highest integrity, an uncommon strength of character, with a lot of kindness and generosity, but also a man who made his dreams, conceived in the inhospitable solitudes of the Sahara, come true. He was very young when he chose his way: barely 10 years old and his passion for geology already filled his life. It was in Africa, a continent he discovered at his earliest years as a field-geologist, and deeply loved, that he nursed and matured many of his most stimulating ideas on Quaternary environmental change. It was in the desert that he built up his exceptional personality and found his truth, which finally allowed him to accomplish his destiny. Hugues Faure was born in Paris, on the 11th March 1928, the son of a jeweller. The comfortable circumstances of the family were darkened by his father's death when Hugues was only 3 years old. As a consequence of this sad event, Hugues used to spend in England most of his school holidays far from his family. Then during World War 2, he lived the exodus on the roads of France, cycling under the bombs, with his dog in his basket. He was 12 years old, and it was the end of his youth. His passion for earth sciences had began before the age of ten, when he started collecting flint and fossils from the chalk of the Paris Basin, and decided to stop playing piano, so as to devote himself to Geology. Hugues graduated in Mathematics from LycĂ©e Jacques-Decour in 1948, and in Sciences from the FacultĂ© des Sciences de Paris Sorbonne in 1949. On the same year he enrolled as a geologist of the âFrance of Overseasâ, then as a hydrogeologist at the French Geological Survey (BRGM) (1949â1963), so as to work in Africa
Basirolaimus Shamsi 1979, a junior synonym of Hoplolaimus von Daday, 1905, (Nematoda : Tylenchida)
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