Integrating Equity Considerations into Agent-Based Modeling: A Conceptual Framework and Practical Guidance

Advancing equity is a complex challenge for society, science, and policy. Agent-based models are increasingly used as scientific tools to advance understanding of systems, inform decision-making, and share knowledge. Yet, equity has not received due attention within the agent-based modeling (ABM) literature. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework and provide guidance for integrating equity considerations into ABM research and modeling practice. The framework conceptualizes ABM as interfacing with equity outcomes at two levels (the science-society interface and within the model itself) and the modeler as a filter and lens that projects knowledge between the target system and the model. Within the framework, we outline three complementary, equity-advancing action pathways: (1) engage stakeholders, (2) acknowledge positionality and bias, and (3) assess equity with agent-based models. For Pathway 1, we summarize existing guidance within the participatory modeling literature. For Pathway 2, we introduce the positionality and bias document as a tool to promote modeler and stakeholder reflexivity throughout the modeling process. For Pathway 3, we synthesize a typology of approaches for modeling equity and ffer a set of preliminary suggestions for best practice. By engaging with these action pathways, modelers both reduce the risks of inadvertently perpetuating inequity and harness the opportunities for ABM to play a larger role in creating a more equitable future

Predictors of Ips confusus Outbreaks During a Record Drought in Southwestern USA: Implications for Monitoring and Management

In many ecosystems the effects of disturbance can be cryptic and disturbance may vary in subtle spatiotemporal ways. For instance, we know that bark beetle outbreaks are more frequent in temperate forests during droughts; however, we have little idea about why they occur in some locations and not others. Understanding biotic and abiotic factors promoting bark beetle outbreaks can be critical to predicting and responding to pest outbreaks. Here we address the environmental factors which are associated with Ips confusus outbreaks during the 2002 widespread drought within the distribution range of pinyon pine woodlands in Arizona. We used univariate statistics to test if whether tree characteristics, other herbivores, stand properties, soil type, wind, and topography were associated with I. confusus outbreak, and logistic regression to create a predictive model for the outbreaks. We found that I. confusus attacks occur in low elevation stands on steeper slopes, where favorable winds for I. confusus dispersion occur. I. confusus select larger trees, in high density stands with understory shrubs that exhibit phenotypic traits characteristic of resistance to stem-boring moths. The model was highly accurate, and explained 95% of the variability in occurrence (98% of the absences and 95% of the presences). Accurate prediction of the impacts of disturbance allow us to anticipate, minimize or mitigate for and eventually counteract its effects, especially those affecting diversity and ecosystem function. Identification of outbreak risk areas can guide regional and national management towards the reduction of infestation risk and enhancing conservation of pinyon-juniper woodlands

Prevalence and factors affecting home blood pressure documentation in routine clinical care: a retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Home blood pressure (BP) is closely linked to patient outcomes. However, the prevalence of its documentation has not been examined. The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence and factors affecting documentation of home BP in routine clinical care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective study of 142,973 encounters of 9,840 hypertensive patients with diabetes from 2000 to 2005 was performed. The prevalence of recorded home BP and the factors associated with its documentation were analyzed. We assessed validity of home BP information by comparing the difference between home and office BP to previously published prospective studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Home BP was documented in narrative notes for 2.08% of encounters where any blood pressure was recorded and negligibly in structured data (EMR flowsheets). Systolic and diastolic home BP in narrative notes were lower than office BP readings by 9.6 and 2.5 mm Hg, respectively (p < 0.0001 for both), consistent with prospective data. Probability of home BP documentation increased by 23.0% for each 10 mm Hg of office systolic BP (p < 0.0001), by 6.2% for each $10,000 in median income of zip code (p = 0.0055), and by 17.7% for each decade in the patient's age (p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Home BP readings provide a valid representation of the patient's condition, yet are seldom documented despite their potential utility in both patient care and research. Strong association between higher patient income and home BP documentation suggests that the cost of the monitors may be a limiting factor; reimbursement of home BP monitoring expenses should be pursued.</p

Seroprevalence and distribution of arboviral infections among rural Kenyan adults: A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arthorpod-borne viruses (arboviruses) cause wide-spread morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa, but little research has documented the burden and distribution of these pathogens.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a population-based, cross-sectional study design, we administered a detailed questionnaire and used ELISA to test the blood of 1,141 healthy Kenyan adults from three districts for the presence of anti-viral Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to the following viruses: dengue (DENV), West Nile (WNV), yellow fever (YFV), Chikungunya (CHIKV), and Rift Valley fever (RVFV).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of these, 14.4% were positive for DENV, 9.5% were WNV positive, 9.2% were YFV positive, 34.0% were positive for CHIKV and 0.7% were RVFV positive. In total, 46.6% had antibodies to at least one of these arboviruses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>For all arboviruses, district of residence was strongly associated with seropositivity. Seroprevalence to YFV, DENV and WNV increased with age, while there was no correlation between age and seropositivity for CHIKV, suggesting that much of the seropositivity to CHIKV is due to sporadic epidemics. Paradoxically, literacy was associated with increased seropositivity of CHIKV and DENV.</p

Melatonin protects rats from radiotherapy-induced small intestine toxicity

Radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity is among the most prevalent dose-limiting toxicities following radiotherapy. Prevention of radiation enteropathy requires protection of the small intestine. However, despite the prevalence and burden of this pathology, there are currently no effective treatments for radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity, and this pathology remains unclear. The present study aimed to investigate the changes induced in the rat small intestine after external irradiation of the tongue, and to explore the potential radio-protective effects of melatonin gel. Male Wistar rats were subjected to irradiation of their tongues with an X-Ray YXLON Y.Tu 320-D03 irradiator, receiving a dose of 7.5 Gy/day for 5 days. For 21 days post-irradiation, rats were treated with 45 mg/day melatonin gel or vehicle, by local application into their mouths. Our results showed that mitochondrial oxidative stress, bioenergetic impairment, and subsequent NLRP3 inflammasome activation were involved in the development of radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity. Oral treatment with melatonin gel had a protective effect in the small intestine, which was associated with mitochondrial protection and, consequently, with a reduced inflammatory response, blunting the NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome signaling activation. Thus, rats treated with melatonin gel showed reduced intestinal apoptosis, relieving mucosal dysfunction and facilitating intestinal mucosa recovery. Our findings suggest that oral treatment with melatonin gel may be a potential preventive therapy for radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity in cancer patients.This study was partially supported by grant no. SAF2009-14037 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity (MINECO), GREIB.PT_2010_04 from the CEIBiotic Program of the University of Granada, Spain, and CTS-101 from the Consejería de Innovación, Ciencia y Empresa, Junta de Andalucía, Spain

A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial to Explore Cognitive and Emotional Effects of Probiotics in Fibromyalgia

It has recently been found that microbes in the gut may regulate brain processes through the gut microbiota–brain axis, which modulates affection, motivation and higher cognitive functions. According to this finding, the use of probiotics may be a potential treatment to improve physical, psychological and cognitive status in clinical populations with altered microbiota balance such as those with fibromyalgia (FMS). Thus, the aim of the present pilot study with a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised design was to test whether a multispecies probiotic may improve cognition, emotional symptoms and functional state in a sample of patients diagnosed with FMS. Pain, impact of FMS, quality of life, anxiety and depressive symptoms were measured during the pre- and post-intervention phases; participants also completed two computerised cognitive tasks to assess impulsive choice and decision-making. Finally, urinary cortisol concentration was determined. To our knowledge, this is the first study that explore the effect of a multispecies probiotic in FMS patients. Our results indicated that probiotics improved impulsivity and decision-making in these patients. However, more research is needed to further explore the potential effects of probiotics on other cognitive functions affected in FMS as well as in other clinical populations

Do physician outcome judgments and judgment biases contribute to inappropriate use of treatments? Study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are many examples of physicians using treatments inappropriately, despite clear evidence about the circumstances under which the benefits of such treatments outweigh their harms. When such over- or under- use of treatments occurs for common diseases, the burden to the healthcare system and risks to patients can be substantial. We propose that a major contributor to inappropriate treatment may be how clinicians judge the likelihood of important treatment outcomes, and how these judgments influence their treatment decisions. The current study will examine the role of judged outcome probabilities and other cognitive factors in the context of two clinical treatment decisions: 1) prescription of antibiotics for sore throat, where we hypothesize overestimation of benefit and underestimation of harm leads to over-prescription of antibiotics; and 2) initiation of anticoagulation for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), where we hypothesize that underestimation of benefit and overestimation of harm leads to under-prescription of warfarin.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For each of the two conditions, we will administer surveys of two types (Type 1 and Type 2) to different samples of Canadian physicians. The primary goal of the Type 1 survey is to assess physicians' perceived outcome probabilities (both good and bad outcomes) for the target treatment. Type 1 surveys will assess judged outcome probabilities in the context of a representative patient, and include questions about how physicians currently treat such cases, the recollection of rare or vivid outcomes, as well as practice and demographic details. The primary goal of the Type 2 surveys is to measure the specific factors that drive individual clinical judgments and treatment decisions, using a 'clinical judgment analysis' or 'lens modeling' approach. This survey will manipulate eight clinical variables across a series of sixteen realistic case vignettes. Based on the survey responses, we will be able to identify which variables have the greatest effect on physician judgments, and whether judgments are affected by inappropriate cues or incorrect weighting of appropriate cues. We will send antibiotics surveys to family physicians (300 per survey), and warfarin surveys to both family physicians and internal medicine specialists (300 per group per survey), for a total of 1,800 physicians. Each Type 1 survey will be two to four pages in length and take about fifteen minutes to complete, while each Type 2 survey will be eight to ten pages in length and take about thirty minutes to complete.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This work will provide insight into the extent to which clinicians' judgments about the likelihood of important treatment outcomes explain inappropriate treatment decisions. This work will also provide information necessary for the development of an individualized feedback tool designed to improve treatment decisions. The techniques developed here have the potential to be applicable to a wide range of clinical areas where inappropriate utilization stems from biased judgments.</p