Inquiries Into Real Estate and Macroeconomics: Zoning & Monetary Policy Regimes

In Chapter 1, I take advantage of uncertainty regarding future land use restrictions in order to empirically identify the value of the redevelopment option embedded in real estate prices for New York City (NYC) from 2003-2015. Using a two-stage estimation procedure, ergodic propensities to be zoned to either residential, commercial, or manufacturing land uses are interacted with a proxy for the propensity to be redeveloped. Results show that the interactions provide significantly greater explanatory power than using the intensity proxy alone. And that all option value terms are statistically significant. I estimate the average option value to redevelop in Manhattan \& Brooklyn for years 2003-2015 is 20\% and 8.5\% of total estimated property value in Manhattan and Brooklyn respectively. I also find evidence that manufacturing lots identified as residential by the model sell for a premium of 50\% per square foot. Chapter 2 considers commercial real estate (CRE), a major institutional asset class to which the banking sector has considerable exposure. Because CRE prices tend to be smoothed it is hard to infer their relationship with fundamentals. This is compounded by the presence of complicated underlying dynamics. For instance, inflation acts to increase discount rates but may also be associated with higher rental revenues. Thus it is difficult to sign the impact of inflation on CRE prices, especially given that the dynamics of macro fundamentals periodically undergo regime changes. Similar considerations apply to real economic growth and, by extension, interest rates. We estimate a model, consistent with rational expectations, where regime-dependent macro fundamentals are anticipated in prices. We find that real estate fundamentals and prices vary with macro fundamentals and are highly sensitive to potential regime changes. Correspondingly, information in real estate prices improves the identification macro regimes. Our model allows us to quantify sources of systematic risk in real estate and price mortgages (which are sensitive to the joint dynamics of interest rates and real estate prices). To the extent that regimes in macro fundamentals arise from shifts in monetary policy, our model may also be used for policy analysis.Doctor of Philosoph

Novel study design to assess the utility of the copd assessment test in a primary care setting

The quality of a consultation provided by a physician can have a profound impact on the quality of care and patient engagement in treatment decisions. When the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) was developed, one of its aims was to aid the communication between physician and patient about the impact of COPD. We developed a novel study design to assess this in a primary care consultation. Primary care physicians across five countries in Europe conducted videoed consultations with six standardised COPD patients (played by trained actors) which had patient-specific issues that the physician needed to identify through questioning. Half the physicians saw the patients with the completed CAT, and half without. Independent assessors scored the physicians on their ability to identify and address the patient-specific issues, review standard COPD aspects, their understanding of the case and their overall performance. This novel study design presented many challenges which needed to be addressed to achieve an acceptable level of robustness to assess the utility of the CAT. This paper discusses these challenges and the measures adopted to eliminate or minimise their impact on the study results

Global surgery, obstetric, and anaesthesia indicator definitions and reporting: An Utstein consensus report

Background Indicators to evaluate progress towards timely access to safe surgical, anaesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) care were proposed in 2015 by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. These aimed to capture access to surgery, surgical workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality rate, and catastrophic and impoverishing financial consequences of surgery. Despite being rapidly taken up by practitioners, data points from which to derive the indicators were not defined, limiting comparability across time or settings. We convened global experts to evaluate and explicitly define—for the first time—the indicators to improve comparability and support achievement of 2030 goals to improve access to safe affordable surgical and anaesthesia care globally. Methods and findings The Utstein process for developing and reporting guidelines through a consensus building process was followed. In-person discussions at a 2-day meeting were followed by an iterative process conducted by email and virtual group meetings until consensus was reached. The meeting was held between June 16 to 18, 2019; discussions continued until August 2020. Participants consisted of experts in surgery, anaesthesia, and obstetric care, data science, and health indicators from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Considering each of the 6 indicators in turn, we refined overarching descriptions and agreed upon data points needed for construction of each indicator at current time (basic data points), and as each evolves over 2 to 5 (intermediate) and >5 year (full) time frames. We removed one of the original 6 indicators (one of 2 financial risk protection indicators was eliminated) and refined descriptions and defined data points required to construct the 5 remaining indicators: geospatial access, workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and catastrophic expenditure. A strength of the process was the number of people from global institutes and multilateral agencies involved in the collection and reporting of global health metrics; a limitation was the limited number of participants from low- or middle-income countries—who only made up 21% of the total attendees. Conclusions To track global progress towards timely access to quality SAO care, these indicators—at the basic level—should be implemented universally as soon as possible. Intermediate and full indicator sets should be achieved by all countries over time. Meanwhile, these evolutions can assist in the short term in developing national surgical plans and collecting more detailed data for research studies.publishedVersio

The use of complementary and alternative medicine by 7427 Australian women with cyclic perimenstrual pain and discomfort: A cross-sectional study

© 2016 Fisher et al. Background: To assess the prevalence of cyclic perimenstrual pain and discomfort and to detail the pattern of complementary and alternative (CAM) use adopted by women for the treatment of these symptoms. Methods: Data from the 2012 national Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health (ALSWH) cross-sectional survey of 7427 women aged 34-39 years were analysed to estimate the prevalence of endometriosis, premenstrual syndrome (PMS), irregular or heavy periods and severe dysmenorrhoea and to examine the association between their symptoms and their visits to CAM practitioners as well as their use of CAM therapies and products in the previous 12 months. Results: The prevalence of endometriosis was 3.7 % and of the perimenstrual symptoms assessed, PMS was most prevalent at 41.2 % whilst irregular bleeding (22.2 %), heavy periods (29.8 %) and severe period pain (24.1 %) were reported at lower levels. Women with endometriosis were more likely than non-sufferers to have consulted with a massage therapist or acupuncturist and to have used vitamins/minerals, yoga/meditation or Chinese medicines (p < 0.05). PMS sufferers were more likely to consult with an osteopath, massage therapist, naturopath/herbalist or alternative health practitioner and to have used all forms of CAM therapies except Chinese medicines than women who had infrequent PMS (all p < 0.05). Women with irregular periods did not have different patterns of CAM use from non-sufferers and those with heavy periods did not favour any form of CAM but were less likely to visit a massage therapist or use yoga/meditation than non-sufferers (p < 0.05). For women with severe dysmenorrhoea there was no difference in their visits to CAM practitioners compared to non-sufferers but they were more likely to use aromatherapy oils (p < 0.05) and for more frequent dysmenorrhoea also herbal medicines, Chinese medicines and other alternative therapies compared to non-sufferers (all p < 0.05). Conclusions: There is a high prevalence of cyclic perimenstrual pain and discomfort amongst women in this age group. Women were using CAM differentially when they had specific symptoms of cyclic perimenstrual pain and discomfort. The use of CAM needs to be properly assessed to ensure their safe, effective use and to ascertain their significance as a treatment option enabling women with menstrual problems and their care providers to improve their quality of life

Interpretation of hyperspectral remote-sensing imagery by spectrum matching and look-up tables

A spectrum-matching and look-up-table (LUT) methodology has been developed and evaluated to extract environmental information from remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery. The LUT methodology works as follows. First, a database of remote-sensing reflectance (R[subscript]rs) spectra corresponding to various water depths, bottom reflectance spectra, and water-column inherent optical properties (IOPs) is constructed using a special version of the HydroLight radiative transfer numerical model. Second, the measured Rrs spectrum for a particular image pixel is compared with each spectrum in the database, and the closest match to the image spectrum is found using a least-squares minimization. The environmental conditions in nature are then assumed to be the same as the input conditions that generated the closest matching HydroLight-generated database spectrum. The LUT methodology has been evaluated by application to an Ocean Portable Hyperspectral Imaging Low-Light Spectrometer image acquired near Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas, on 17 May 2000. The LUT-retrieved bottom depths were on average within 5% and 0.5 m of independently obtained acoustic depths. The LUT-retrieved bottom classification was in qualitative agreement with diver and video spot classification of bottom types, and the LUT-retrieved IOPs were consistent with IOPs measured at nearby times and locations.This is the publisher's version of record. The original submission is copyrighted by Optical Society of America and can be found here: http://www.opticsinfobase.org/ao/home.cf

Scientists' warning on climate change and insects

Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human-mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort

Executive functions in adults with developmental dyslexia

Background: Executive functioning (EF) deficits are well recognized in developmental dyslexia, yet the majority of studies have concerned children rather than adults, ignored the subjective experience of the individual with dyslexia (with regard to their own EFs), and have not followed current theoretical perspectives on EFs. Aims and Methods: The current study addressed these shortfalls by administering a self-report measure of EF (BRIEF-A; Roth, Isquith & Gioia, 2005) and experimental tasks to IQ-matched groups of adults with and without dyslexia. The laboratory-based tasks tested the three factors constituting the framework of EF proposed by Miyake et al. (2000). Results: In comparison to the group without dyslexia, the participants with dyslexia self-reported more frequent EF problems in day-to-day life, with these difficulties centering on metacognitive processes (working memory, planning, task monitoring, and organization) rather than on the regulation of emotion and behaviour. The participants with dyslexia showed significant deficits in EF (inhibition, set shifting, and working memory). Conclusions and Implications: The findings indicated that dyslexia-related problems have an impact on the daily experience of adults with the condition. Further, EF difficulties are present in adulthood across a range of laboratory-based measures, and, given the nature of the experimental tasks presented, extend beyond difficulties related solely to phonological processing

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Play, Learn, and Teach Outdoors—Network (PLaTO-Net): terminology, taxonomy, and ontology

Background: A recent dialogue in the feld of play, learn, and teach outdoors (referred to as “PLaTO” hereafter) demonstrated the need for developing harmonized and consensus-based terminology, taxonomy, and ontology for PLaTO. This is important as the feld evolves and diversifes in its approaches, contents, and contexts over time and in diferent countries, cultures, and settings. Within this paper, we report the systematic and iterative processes under‑taken to achieve this objective, which has built on the creation of the global PLaTO-Network (PLaTO-Net). Methods: This project comprised of four major methodological phases. First, a systematic scoping review was conducted to identify common terms and defnitions used pertaining to PLaTO. Second, based on the results of the scoping review, a draft set of key terms, taxonomy, and ontology were developed, and shared with PLaTO members, who provided feedback via four rounds of consultation. Third, PLaTO terminology, taxonomy, and ontology were then fnalized based on the feedback received from 50 international PLaTO member participants who responded to≥3 rounds of the consultation survey and dialogue. Finally, eforts to share and disseminate project outcomes were made through diferent online platforms. Results: This paper presents the fnal defnitions and taxonomy of 31 PLaTO terms along with the PLaTO-Net ontol‑ogy model. The model incorporates other relevant concepts in recognition that all the aspects of the model are interrelated and interconnected. The fnal terminology, taxonomy, and ontology are intended to be applicable to, and relevant for, all people encompassing various identities (e.g., age, gender, culture, ethnicity, ability). Conclusions: This project contributes to advancing PLaTO-based research and facilitating intersectoral and inter‑disciplinary collaboration, with the long-term goal of fostering and strengthening PLaTO’s synergistic linkages with healthy living, environmental stewardship, climate action, and planetary health agendas. Notably, PLaTO terminology, taxonomy and ontology will continue to evolve, and PLaTO-Net is committed to advancing and periodically updating harmonized knowledge and understanding in the vast and interrelated areas of PLaTO