Geographic profiling in Nazi Berlin: fact and fiction

Geographic profiling uses the locations of connected crime sites to make inferences about the probable location of the offender’s ‘anchor point’ (usually a home, but sometimes a workplace). We show how the basic ideas of the method were used in a Gestapo investigation that formed the basis of a classic German novel about domestic resistance to the Nazis during the Second World War. We use modern techniques to re-analyse this case, and show that these successfully locate the Berlin home address of Otto and Elise Hampel, who had distributed hundreds of anti-Nazi postcards, after analysing just 34 of the 214 incidents that took place before their arrest. Our study provides the first empirical evidence to support the suggestion that analysis of minor terrorism-related acts such as graffiti and theft could be used to help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur

Spatial targeting of infectious disease control: identifying multiple, unknown sources

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Spatial methods for infectious disease outbreak investigations: systematic literature review

Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks are conventionally framed in terms of person, time and place. Although geographic information systems have increased the range of tools available, spatial analyses are used relatively infrequently. We conducted a systematic review of published reports of outbreak investigations worldwide to estimate the prevalence of spatial methods, describe the techniques applied and explore their utility. We identified 80 reports using spatial methods published between 1979 and 2013, ca 0.4% of the total number of published outbreaks. Environmental or waterborne infections were the most commonly investigated, and most reports were from the United Kingdom. A range of techniques were used, including simple dot maps, cluster analyses and modelling approaches. Spatial tools were usefully applied throughout investigations, from initial confirmation of the outbreak to describing and analysing cases and communicating findings. They provided valuable insights that led to public health actions, but there is scope for much wider implementation and development of new methods.</jats:p

Spatially clustered count data provide more efficient search strategies in invasion biology and disease control.

Geographic profiling, a mathematical model originally developed in criminology, is increasingly being used in ecology and epidemiology. Geographic profiling boasts a wide range of applications, such as finding source populations of invasive species or breeding sites of vectors of infectious disease. The model provides a cost-effective approach for prioritising search strategies for source locations and does so via simple data in the form of the positions of each observation, such as individual sightings of invasive species or cases of a disease. In doing so, however, classic geographic profiling approaches fail to make the distinction between those areas containing observed absences and those areas where no data were recorded. Absence data are generated via spatial sampling protocols but are often discarded during the inference process. Here we construct a geographic profiling model that resolves these issues by making inferences via count data - analysing a set of discrete sentinel locations at which the number of encounters has been recorded. Crucially, in our model this number can be zero. We verify the ability of this new model to estimate source locations and other parameters of practical interest via a Bayesian power analysis. We also measure model performance via real-world data in which the model infers breeding locations of mosquitoes in bromeliads in Miami-Dade County, Florida. In both cases, our novel model produces more efficient search strategies by shifting focus from those areas containing observed absences to those with no data, an improvement over existing models that treat these areas equally. Our model makes important improvements upon classic geographic profiling methods, which will significantly enhance real-world efforts to develop conservation management plans and targeted interventions

Flow cytometric determination of genome size in European sunbleak Leucaspius delineatus (Heckel, 1843)

The aim of this study was to compare DNA content in hepatocyte and erythrocyte nuclei of the European sunbleak, Leucaspius delineatus, in relation to nuclear and cell size by means of flow cytometry and fluorescence microscopy. The DNA standards, chicken and rainbow trout erythrocytes, were prepared in parallel with both cell types, with initial separation of liver cells in pepsin solution followed by cell filtering. Standards and investigated cells were stained with a mixture of propidium iodide, citric acid, and Nonidet P40 in the presence of RNAse, and fluorescence of at least 50,000 nuclei was analyzed by flow cytometry. Average cell size was determined by flow cytometry, using fresh cell suspension in relation to latex beads of known diameter. The size of nuclei was examined on the basis of digital micrographs obtained by fluorescence microscopy after nuclei staining with DAPI. The sunbleak’s erythrocyte nuclei contain 2.25 ± 0.06 pg of DNA, whereas the hepatocyte nuclei contain 2.46 ± 0.06 pg of DNA. This difference in DNA content was determined spectroscopically using isolated DNA from the two cell types. The modal diameters of the erythrocytes and hepatocytes were estimated to be 5.1 ± 0.2 and 22.3 ± 5.0 μm, respectively, and the corresponding modal dimensions of their nuclei (measured as surface area) were 15.2 and 21.4 μm2, respectively. The nucleoplasmic index, as calculated from diameters estimated from surface area of nuclear profiles, was 2.51 for the erythrocytes compared with 0.08 for hepatocytes

Differential Dynamics of Transposable Elements during Long-Term Diploidization of Nicotiana Section Repandae (Solanaceae) Allopolyploid Genomes

PubMed ID: 23185607This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited