Permafrost is warming at a global scale

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged

Data management - from collecting to sharing (invited talk and breakout session at the Permafrost Young Researchers Workshop 2014)

This session is intended for very early scientists dealing with large amounts of data for the first time, as well as for young scientists at more advanced stages of their career (e.g. PhD / Postdocs) who have already been confronted with data sharing for larger projects and collaborations. After a general introduced on the topic “Collecting, Archiving and Sharing Data”, Boris Biskaborn (AWI) will give a talk about the the GTN-P database and it's current challenges. Jean-Pierre Lanckmann (Arctic Portal), will thereafter present the necessity of data compatibility and the potentials of international standards for the purpose of data sharing.These relatively short talks will be followed by a 30 minutes interactive discussion, including topics such as: How to set up a database. How to decide if my project would benefit or suffer from setting up a database. Scripting for documentation

The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P)

The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63 % metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50 % metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73 % are shallower than 25 m and 27 % are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase. GTN-P metadata used in this paper are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.842821

The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation

Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44$276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from$115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states

The new Page21 Data Management System for the Global Terrestrial Network of Permafrost

The Data Management System (DMS) of the Page21 EU project operates towards providing a web-based resource for the essential climate variables (ECV) permafrost of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P), aiming to enable the assessment of the relation between ground temperature, gas fluxes and the Earth’s climate system. The database contains time series for borehole temperatures and grids of active layer thickness (TSP, CALM) plus air and surface temperature and moisture (DUE Permafrost, MODIS) measured in the terrestrial Panarctic, Antarctic and Mountainous realms. This DMS will provide, for the first time, a dynamic and comprehensive database for permafrost monitoring parameters where permafrost researchers and other stakeholders will be able to download data and detailed metadata for a specific site or region following international standards for geospatial metadata ISO 19115/2 and TC/221. As an open-source spatio-temporal database it is implemented with PostGIS, the spatial version of PostgreSQL, following the object-oriented logic. Carefully designed user interfaces, tutorials, templates, and the nomination of National Correspondents (NCs) provide the tools to facilitate the smooth input and extraction of data. Ad hoc visualizations of different automatically calculated statistics of the uploaded data will guide the user to an optimal data overview. The output is provided in most of the popular formats including csv, xml, NetCDF, kml, and shapefiles. This data management product will outlive the PAGE21 project and is therefore being conceived in collaboration within international networks for permafrost research (GTN-P, IPA)