El Encaje, los Flujos de Capitales y el Gasto: Una Evaluación empírica

The rapid expansion of private-sector expenditure in the 1990s was accompanied by a massive and increasing foreign capital inflow. A tight economic policy, characterized by high interest rates, was implemented in order to contain the private expenditure growth. As a way of reconciling high interest rates with increasing international financial integration, a reserve requirement on capital inflows was applied. The paper shows that private spending responds to the volume of capital inflows, and that these, in turn, respond significantly to the reserve requirement. We obtain that the effect of monetary policy on domestic spending is weakened by capital inflows when the exchange rate is not free to fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates. The reserve requirement can be used to avoid this weakening, by compensating the effects on capital inflows produced by interest rate spreads. The results also show that if the reserve requirement had been eliminated, capital inflows would have grown significantly and the excess domestic demand situation of 1997 would have been aggravated. A more effective strategy for controlling private expenditure would have needed a higher reserve requirement and an even tighter monetary policy, or else a counter-cyclical fiscal policy that would have increased public saving in periods of private expenditure expansion.

HD 152246 - a new high-mass triple system and its basic properties

Analyses of multi-epoch, high-resolution (R ~ 50.000) optical spectra of the O-type star HD 152246 (O9 IV according to the most recent classification), complemented by a limited number of earlier published radial velocities, led to the finding that the object is a hierarchical triple system, where a close inner pair (Ba-Bb) with a slightly eccentric orbit (e = 0.11) and a period of 6.0049 days revolves in a 470-day highly eccentric orbit (e = 0.865) with another massive and brighter component A. The mass ratio of the inner system must be low since we were unable to find any traces of the secondary spectrum. The mass ratio A/(Ba+Bb) is 0.89. The outer system has recently been resolved using long-baseline interferometry on three occasions. The interferometry confirms the spectroscopic results and specifies elements of the system. Our orbital solutions, including the combined radial-velocity and interferometric solution indicate an orbital inclination of the outer orbit of 112{\deg} and stellar masses of 20.4 and 22.8 solar masses. We also disentangled the spectra of components A and Ba and compare them to synthetic spectra from two independent programmes, TLUSTY and FASTWIND. In either case, the fit was not satisfactory and we postpone a better determination of the system properties for a future study, after obtaining observations during the periastron passage of the outer orbit (the nearest chance being March 2015). For the moment, we can only conclude that component A is an O9 IV star with v*sin(i) = 210 +\- 10 km/s and effective temperature of 33000 +\- 500 K, while component Ba is an O9 V object with v*sin(i) = 65 +/- 3 km/s and T_eff = 33600 +\- 600 K.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Fisher information and asymptotic normality in system identification for quantum Markov chains

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the coupling constant $\theta$ of a mixing quantum Markov chain. For a repeated measurement on the chain's output we show that the outcomes' time average has an asymptotically normal (Gaussian) distribution, and we give the explicit expressions of its mean and variance. In particular we obtain a simple estimator of $\theta$ whose classical Fisher information can be optimized over different choices of measured observables. We then show that the quantum state of the output together with the system, is itself asymptotically Gaussian and compute its quantum Fisher information which sets an absolute bound to the estimation error. The classical and quantum Fisher informations are compared in a simple example. In the vicinity of $\theta=0$ we find that the quantum Fisher information has a quadratic rather than linear scaling in output size, and asymptotically the Fisher information is localised in the system, while the output is independent of the parameter.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures. final versio

Criteria of efficiency for conformal prediction

We study optimal conformity measures for various criteria of efficiency of classification in an idealised setting. This leads to an important class of criteria of efficiency that we call probabilistic; it turns out that the most standard criteria of efficiency used in literature on conformal prediction are not probabilistic unless the problem of classification is binary. We consider both unconditional and label-conditional conformal prediction.Comment: 31 page

Closure Theorem for Sequential-Design Processes

This chapter focuses on stochastic control and decision processes that occur in a variety of theoretical and applied contexts, such as statistical decision problems, stochastic dynamic programming problems, gambling processes, optimal stopping problems, stochastic adaptive control processes, and so on. It has long been recognized that these are all mathematically closely related. That being the case, all of these decision processes can be viewed as variations on a single theoretical formulation. The chapter presents some general conditions under which optimal policies are guaranteed to exist. The given theoretical formulation is flexible enough to include most variants of the types of processes. In statistical problems, the distribution of the observed variables depends on the true value of the parameter. The parameter space has no topological or other structure here; it is merely a set indexing the possible distributions. Hence, the formulation is not restricted to those problems known in the statistical literature as parametric problems. In nonstatistical contexts, the distribution does not depend on an unknown parameter. All such problems may be included in the formulation by the device of choosing the parameter space to consist of only one point, corresponding to the given distribution

Data-driven efficient score tests for deconvolution problems

We consider testing statistical hypotheses about densities of signals in deconvolution models. A new approach to this problem is proposed. We constructed score tests for the deconvolution with the known noise density and efficient score tests for the case of unknown density. The tests are incorporated with model selection rules to choose reasonable model dimensions automatically by the data. Consistency of the tests is proved

The Language Profile of Behavioral Variant Frontotemporal Dementia

BACKGROUND: The language profile of behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) remains to be fully defined. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify the extent of language deficits in this patient group. METHODS: We assessed a cohort of patients with bvFTD (n = 24) in relation to patients with semantic variant primary progressive aphasia (svPPA; n = 14), nonfluent variant primary progressive aphasia (nfvPPA; n = 18), and healthy age-matched individuals (n = 24) cross-sectionally and longitudinally using a comprehensive battery of language and general neuropsychological tests. Neuroanatomical associations of language performance were assessed using voxel-based morphometry of patients' brain magnetic resonance images. RESULTS: Relative to healthy controls, and after accounting for nonverbal executive performance, patients with bvFTD showed deficits of noun and verb naming and single word comprehension, diminished spontaneous propositional speech, and deterioration in naming performance over time. Within the bvFTD group, patients with MAPT mutations had more severe impairments of noun naming and single word comprehension than patients with C9orf72 mutations. Overall the bvFTD group had less severe language deficits than patients with PPA, but showed a language profile that was qualitatively similar to svPPA. Neuroanatomical correlates of naming and word comprehension performance in bvFTD were identified predominantly in inferior frontal and antero-inferior temporal cortices within the dominant hemispheric language network. CONCLUSIONS: bvFTD is associated with a language profile including verbal semantic impairment that warrants further evaluation as a novel biomarker

Seasonal change in the daily timing of behaviour of the common vole, Microtus arvalis

1. Seasonal effects on daily activity patterns in the common vole were established by periodic trapping in the field and continuous year round recording of running wheel and freeding activity in cages exposed to natural meteorological conditions. 2. Trapping revealed decreased nocturnality in winter as compared to summer. This was paralelled by a winter reduction in both nocturnal wheel running and feeding time in cages. 3. Frequent trap checks revealed a 2 h rhythm in daytime catches in winter, not in summer. Cage feeding activity in daytime was always organized in c. 2 h intervals, but day-to-day variations in phase blurred the rhythm in summer in a summation of individual daily records. Thus both seasonal and short-term temporal patterns are consistent between field trappings and cage feeding records. 4. Variables associated with the seasonal change in daily pattern were: reproductive state (sexually active voles more nocturnal), age (juveniles more nocturnal), temperature (cold days: less nocturnal), food (indicated by feeding experiments), habitat structure (more nocturnal in habitat with underground tunnels). 5. Minor discrepancies between field trappings and cage feeding activity can be explained by assuming increased trappability of voles in winter. Cage wheel running is not predictive of field trapping patterns and is thought to reflect behavioral motivations not associated with feeding but with other activities (e.g., exploratory, escape, interactive behaviour) undetected by current methods, including radiotelemetry and passage-counting. 6. Winter decrease in nocturnality appears to involve a reduction in nocturnal non-feeding and feeding behaviour and is interpreted primarily as an adaptation to reduce energy expenditure in adverse but socially stable winter conditions.

Modulation of Cell Surface Receptor Expression by Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara in Leukocytes of Healthy and HIV-Infected Individuals

Viral vectors are increasingly used as delivery means to induce a specific immunity in humans and animals. However, they also impact the immune system, and it depends on the given context whether this is beneficial or not. The attenuated vaccinia virus strain modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) has been used as a viral vector in clinical studies intended to treat and prevent cancer and infectious diseases. The adjuvant property of MVA is thought to be due to its capability to stimulate innate immunity. Here, we confirmed that MVA induces interleukin-8 (IL-8), and this chemokine was upregulated significantly more in monocytes and HLA-DR(bright)dendritic cells (DCs) of HIV-infected patients on combined antiretroviral therapy (ART) than in cells of healthy persons. The effect of MVA on cell surface receptors is mostly unknown. Using mass cytometry profiling, we investigated the expression of 17 cell surface receptors in leukocytes afterex vivoinfection of human whole-blood samples with MVA. We found that MVA downregulates most of the characteristic cell surface markers in particular types of leukocytes. In contrast, C-X-C motif chemokine receptor 4 (CXCR4) was significantly upregulated in each leukocyte type of healthy persons. Additionally, we detected a relative higher cell surface expression of the HIV-1 co-receptors C-C motif chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) and CXCR4 in leukocytes of HIV-ART patients than in healthy persons. Importantly, we showed that MVA infection significantly downregulated CCR5 in CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, B cells, and three different DC populations. CD86, a costimulatory molecule for T cells, was significantly upregulated in HLA-(DRDCs)-D-bright after MVA infection of whole blood from HIV-ART patients. However, MVA was unable to downregulate cell surface expression of CD11b and CD32 in monocytes and neutrophils of HIV-ART patients to the same extent as in monocytes and neutrophils of healthy persons. In summary, MVA modulates the expression of many different kinds of cell surface receptors in leukocytes, which can vary in cells originating from persons previously infected with other pathogens

Almost-Hermitian Random Matrices: Crossover from Wigner-Dyson to Ginibre eigenvalue statistics

By using the method of orthogonal polynomials we analyze the statistical properties of complex eigenvalues of random matrices describing a crossover from Hermitian matrices characterized by the Wigner- Dyson statistics of real eigenvalues to strongly non-Hermitian ones whose complex eigenvalues were studied by Ginibre. Two-point statistical measures (as e.g. spectral form factor, number variance and small distance behavior of the nearest neighbor distance distribution $p(s)$) are studied in more detail. In particular, we found that the latter function may exhibit unusual behavior $p(s)\propto s^{5/2}$ for some parameter values.Comment: 4 pages, RevTE