A Climatological Analysis of the Monsoon Break Following the Summer Monsoon Onset Over Luzon Island, Philippines

This study investigates the climatology of the monsoon break following the onset of the summer rainy season over Luzon Island (120–122.5°E, 13–22°N) in the Philippines from 1979–2017. The first post-onset monsoon break is remarkable in stations located over the north and central Luzon Island and occurs climatologically in early June. Composite analysis of the large-scale circulation features during the monsoon break period shows that this break is associated with the westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH), which weakened the monsoon southwesterlies and induced enhanced low-level divergence over Luzon Island. The westward extension of the WNPSH may be facilitated by the phase change of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). About 59% (23/39) of the monsoon break cases occurred when suppressed convection, associated with the dry phases of the BSISO, is apparent over the western North Pacific. This suppressed convection favours the westward expansion of the WNPSH. With the occurrence of the monsoon break in early summer, the seasonal march of the early summer monsoon over the Philippines can be divided into three phases: (1) the monsoon onset phase, which occurs between mid to late May under the influence of the westerly/southwesterly low-level winds, (2) the monsoon break phase, when rainfall decreases over Luzon Island in early June, and (3) the monsoon revival phase, when rainfall increases again due to the intrusion of monsoon southwesterlies over the Philippines. This study highlights the complex features of the summer monsoon onset and the impact of the WNPSH on the local climate of the Philippines in early summer

Synoptic Conditions and Potential Causes of the Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event of January 2009 Over Mindanao Island, Philippines

This study investigates the synoptic conditions that led to the heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in Mindanao Island, Philippines (122 −127°E; 5 −10°N), on January 2009 (JAN2009 HRF) that are less emphasized in previous works. Extensive flooding was reported over Cagayan de Oro City in the northern part of Mindanao, where the rainfall on January 10, 11, and 13, 2009, exceeded the 99th percentile of daily rainfall records of all January of the city from 1979 to 2017 by almost two times. A similar exceedance was also felt in Hinatuan station over the eastern coast of Mindanao Island on January 15, 2009. The interaction of a cold surge shearline over the northern Mindanao Island and the warm tropical easterlies led to enhanced moisture convergence. The warmer air mass is forced to ascend by the advancing colder air mass because it has lower density than the colder air mass. The enhanced moisture convergence and buoyancy difference by the air masses led to enhanced ascent and consequently rainfall along the cold surge shearline. Further analysis shows that enhanced anomalous easterly and northerly winds at 925 hPa are apparent over the Philippines. The anomalous easterly winds sustained the supply of warmer easterlies and collaboratively interacted with the northerly winds that supplied colder temperature air mass. The climatology of this HRF event was examined for all January from 1979 to 2017. The authors identified 15 other cases that are similar to the JAN2009 HRF event and performed lag composite analyses. The results show that the occurrence of these HRF events is facilitated by the southward expansion of the high-pressure system to the north of the Philippines, enhanced cold and warm temperature advections, and enhanced moisture convergence along the cold surge shearline. The results of this study have important implications for disaster mitigation during the northeast monsoon season when rainfall activities are, in general, less intensive over this region

Retrospective comparison of clinical and angiographic outcomes after primary stenting using sirolimus-eluting and bare-metal stents in nonrandomized consecutive 568 patients with first ST-segment elevated myocardial infarctions

SummaryBackground and purposeThe long-term safety and efficacy of primary stenting using drug-eluting stents (DES) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are not fully understood in Japan. Therefore, we retrospectively examined the midterm clinical and angiographic outcomes in STEMI patients after primary stenting using sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) in a clinical setting through a historical comparison with those of bare-metal stents (BMS).Methods and resultsThe study design was a retrospective, nonrandomized, and single-center study. The clinical outcomes for 568 consecutive patients who presented within 12h of their first STEMI and who were treated with BMS (n=198; 184 STEMIs from June 2003 to August 2004 and 14 STEMIs from September 2004 to May 2007) or SES (n=370; from August 2004 to May 2007) at our medical center in Japan were retrospectively investigated in February 2010. The incidence of post-discharge events (comprising cardiac death and nonfatal recurrent MI) after SES placement (3.9%) was not significantly different from that after BMS placement (6.7%). SES was not related to the risk of post-discharge events (mean follow-up for SES, 1327±415 days; BMS, 1818±681 days) (hazard ratio of 0.369 at 95% CI, 0.119–1.147, p=0.085). The incidence of definite stent thromboses after SES placement (0.54%) was not significantly higher than that after BMS placement (0%). The incidence of binary in-stent restenosis (% diameter stenosis of more than 50% at secondary angiography) after SES placement (8.3%) was significantly lower than that after BMS placement (25.7%; p<0.001).ConclusionsFrom the present historical comparison of SES and BMS, we conclude that primary stenting using SES in a clinical setting has favorable clinical and angiographic outcomes in Japanese STEMI patients

Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008)

Large-scale fields and inner-core processes relevant to the formation and intensification of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) were examined by simulations using a global nonhydrostatic model with a cloud-permitting resolution. Five runs were performed by varying the cloud microphysics or initial condition settings. In three out of five runs, a middle tropospheric trough developed within a few days following a large-scale latent heat release, which enabled the successive occurrence of deep convective events within the 50-km radius of the incipient disturbance and subsequent tropical cyclone (TC) formation. In the run initialized by altering the analysis dataset, collocation between latent heat release and the large-scale gyre was less evident, and neither the trough nor a TC developed. In the run with weaker latent heating in the lower troposphere, the trough was weak and TC formation was significantly delayed. These results indicate that the superposition of large-scale disturbances in the lower and middle troposphere and their linkage through convective enhancement played an important role in the genesis of Fengshen by preconditioning the establishment of a deep upright inner core.CC-BY 4.

The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea-level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768–2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA-20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA-CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions

AsiaPEX:Challenges and Prospects in Asian Precipitation Research

The Asian Precipitation Experiment (AsiaPEX) was initiated in 2019 to understand terrestrial precipitation over diverse hydroclimatological conditions for improved predictions, disaster reduction, and sustainable development across Asia under the framework of the Global Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP)/Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX). AsiaPEX is the successor to GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME; 1995-2005) and Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative (MAHASRI; 2006-16). While retaining the key objectives of the aforementioned projects, the scientific targets of AsiaPEX focus on land-atmosphere coupling and improvements to the predictability of the Asian hydroclimatological system. AsiaPEX was designed for both fine-scale hydroclimatological processes occurring at the land surface and the integrated Asian hydroclimatological system characterized by multiscale interactions. We adopt six approaches including observation, process studies, scale interactions, high-resolution hydrological modeling, field campaigns, and climate projection, which bridge gaps in research activities conducted in different regions. Collaboration with mesoscale and global modeling researchers is one of the core methods in AsiaPEX. We review these strategies based on the literature and our initial outcomes. These include the estimation and validation of highresolution satellite precipitation, investigations of extreme rainfall mechanisms, field campaigns over the Maritime Continent and Tibetan Plateau, areas of significant impact on the entire AsiaPEX region, process studies on diurnal- to interdecadal-scale interactions, and evaluation of the predictabilities of climate models for long-term variabilities. We will conduct integrated observational and modeling initiative, the Asian Monsoon Year (AMY)-II around 2025-28, whose strategies are the subregional observation platforms and integrated global analysis.</p

Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system

Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields

Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

The long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset