The Effect of Exchange Rate Regimes on Business Cycle Synchronization: A Robust Analysis

In contrast to the widely recognized importance of exchange rate regimes, evidence on their effect on business cycle synchronization focuses almost exclusively on the role of currency unions, thus implicitly ignoring potential effect of other exchange rate regimes. In this paper we use a new dataset on bilateral de-facto exchange rate regimes for the period 1973-2016 to study the effect of seven types of regimes on business cycle synchronization. Using the Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) methodology, we find that the exchange rate regime is a robust determinant of business cycle synchronization. Compared to country pairs with freely floating arrangements, we find that: (i) the correlation coefficient measuring business cycle synchronization is higher by around 0.12 points in countries with no separate legal tenders; (ii) other hard pegs such as currency board arrangements and de-facto pegs have also significantly more synchronised business cycles, but the size of the correlation coefficient is halved compared to countries with no separate legal tenders; (iii) the effect is not always linearly decreasing with the increasing exchange rate regime flexibility, since crawling pegs and crawling bands turn out to be insignificant, whereas the effect of moving bands as a more flexible type of exchange rate regimes is positive and significant; (iv) the effect is stronger for countries with high degree of financial openness and good institutional quality

The Effect of Exchange Rate Regimes on Business Cycle Synchronization: A Robust Analysis

In contrast to the widely recognized importance of exchange rate regimes, evidence on their effect on business cycle synchronization focuses almost exclusively on the role of currency unions, thus implicitly ignoring potential effect of other exchange rate regimes. In this paper we use a new dataset on bilateral de-facto exchange rate regimes for the period 1973-2016 to study the effect of seven types of regimes on business cycle synchronization. Using the Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) methodology, we find that the exchange rate regime is a robust determinant of business cycle synchronization. Compared to country pairs with freely floating arrangements, we find that: (i) the correlation coefficient measuring business cycle synchronization is higher by around 0.12 points in countries with no separate legal tenders; (ii) other hard pegs such as currency board arrangements and de-facto pegs have also significantly more synchronised business cycles, but the size of the correlation coefficient is halved compared to countries with no separate legal tenders; (iii) the effect is not always linearly decreasing with the increasing exchange rate regime flexibility, since crawling pegs and crawling bands turn out to be insignificant, whereas the effect of moving bands as a more flexible type of exchange rate regimes is positive and significant; (iv) the effect is stronger for countries with high degree of financial openness and good institutional quality

Flavonoid intake is associated with lower mortality in the Danish Diet Cancer and Health Cohort

Flavonoids, plant-derived polyphenolic compounds, have been linked with health benefits. However, evidence from observational studies is incomplete; studies on cancer mortality are scarce and moderating effects of lifestyle risk factors for early mortality are unknown. In this prospective cohort study including 56,048 participants of the Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort crosslinked with Danish nationwide registries and followed for 23 years, there are 14,083 deaths. A moderate habitual intake of flavonoids is inversely associated with all-cause, cardiovascular- and cancer-related mortality. This strong association plateaus at intakes of approximately 500 mg/day. Furthermore, the inverse associations between total flavonoid intake and mortality outcomes are stronger and more linear in smokers than in non-smokers, as well as in heavy (\u3e20 g/d) vs. low-moderate (/d) alcohol consumers. These findings highlight the potential to reduce mortality through recommendations to increase intakes of flavonoid-rich foods, particularly in smokers and high alcohol consumers

Dietary intake of advanced glycation endproducts and risk of hepatobiliary cancers: A multinational cohort study

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) may contribute to liver carcinogenesis because of their proinflammatory and prooxidative properties. Diet is a major source of AGEs, but there is sparse human evidence on the role of AGEs intake in liver cancer etiology. We examined the association between dietary AGEs and the risk of hepatobiliary cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition prospective cohort (n = 450 111). Dietary intake of three AGEs, Nε -[carboxymethyl]lysine (CML), Nε -[1-carboxyethyl]lysine (CEL) and Nδ -[5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl]-ornithine (MG-H1), was estimated using country-specific dietary questionnaires linked to an AGEs database. Cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between dietary AGEs and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder and biliary tract cancers were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression. After a median follow-up time of 14.9 years, 255 cases of HCC, 100 cases of gallbladder cancer and 173 biliary tract cancers were ascertained. Higher intakes of dietary AGEs were inversely associated with the risk of HCC (per 1 SD increment, HR-CML = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76-0.99, HR-CEL = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.96 and HR-MH-G1 = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.97). In contrast, positive associations were observed with risk of gallbladder cancer (per 1 SD, HR-CML = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-1.56, HR-CEL = 1.17; 95% CI: 0.96-1.40, HR-MH-G1 = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.06-1.54). No associations were observed for cancers of the intra and extrahepatic bile ducts. Our findings suggest that higher intakes of dietary AGEs are inversely associated with the risk of HCC and positively associated with the risk of gallbladder cancer

Intake estimation of total and individual flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins, their food sources and determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Epidemiological studies suggest health-protective effects of flavan-3-ols and their derived compounds on chronic diseases. The present study aimed to estimate dietary flavan-3-ol, proanthocyanidin (PA) and theaflavin intakes, their food sources and potential determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration cohort. Dietary data were collected using a standardised 24 h dietary recall software administered to 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years. Dietary data were linked with a flavanoid food composition database compiled from the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and expanded to include recipes, estimations and retention factors. Total flavan-3-ol intake was the highest in UK Health-conscious men (453·6 mg/d) and women of UK General population (377·6 mg/d), while the intake was the lowest in Greece (men: 160·5 mg/d; women: 124·8 mg/d). Monomer intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 213·5 mg/d; women: 178·6 mg/d) and the lowest in Greece (men: 26·6 mg/d in men; women: 20·7 mg/d). Theaflavin intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 29·3 mg/d; women: 25·3 mg/d) and close to zero in Greece and Spain. PA intake was the highest in Asturias (men: 455·2 mg/d) and San Sebastian (women: 253 mg/d), while being the lowest in Greece (men: 134·6 mg/d; women: 101·0 mg/d). Except for the UK, non-citrus fruits (apples/pears) were the highest contributors to the total flavan-3-ol intake. Tea was the main contributor of total flavan-3-ols in the UK. Flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intakes were significantly different among all assessed groups. This study showed heterogeneity in flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intake throughout the EPIC countries

Dietary intakes and food sources of phenolic acids in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Phenolic acids are secondary plant metabolites that may have protective effects against oxidative stress, inflammation and cancer in experimental studies. To date, limited data exist on the quantitative intake of phenolic acids. We estimated the intake of phenolic acids and their food sources and associated lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Phenolic acid intakes were estimated for 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years and recruited between 1992 and 2000 in ten European countries using a standardised 24 h recall software (EPIC-Soft), and their food sources were identified. Dietary data were linked to the Phenol-Explorer database, which contains data on forty-five aglycones of phenolic acids in 452 foods. The total phenolic acid intake was highest in Aarhus, Denmark (1265·5 and 980·7 mg/d in men and women, respectively), while the intake was lowest in Greece (213·2 and 158·6 mg/d in men and women, respectively). The hydroxycinnamic acid subclass was the main contributor to the total phenolic acid intake, accounting for 84·6-95·3 % of intake depending on the region. Hydroxybenzoic acids accounted for 4·6-14·4 %, hydroxyphenylacetic acids 0·1-0·8 % and hydroxyphenylpropanoic acids ≤ 0·1 % for all regions. An increasing south-north gradient of consumption was also found. Coffee was the main food source of phenolic acids and accounted for 55·3-80·7 % of the total phenolic acid intake, followed by fruits, vegetables and nuts. A high heterogeneity in phenolic acid intake was observed across the European countries in the EPIC cohort, which will allow further exploration of the associations with the risk of diseases

Estimation of the intake of anthocyanidins and their food sources in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study

Anthocyanidins are bioactive flavonoids with potential health-promoting effects. These may vary among single anthocyanidins considering differences in their bioavailability and some of the mechanisms involved. The aim of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of anthocyanidins, their food sources and the lifestyle factors (sex, age, BMI, smoking status, educational level and physisical activity) involved among twenty-seven centres in ten European countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Anthocyanidin intake and their food sources for 36 037 subjects, aged between 35 and 74 years, in twenty-seven redefined centres were obtained using standardised 24 h dietary recall software (EPIC-SOFT). An ad hoc food composition database on anthocyanidins (cyanidin, delphinidin, malvidin, pelargonidin, peonidin, petunidin) was compiled using data from the US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and was expanded by adding recipes, estimated values and cooking factors. For men, the total anthocyanidin mean intake ranged from 19·83 (se 1·53) mg/d (Bilthoven, The Netherlands) to 64·88 (se 1·86) mg/d (Turin, Italy), whereas for women the range was 18·73 (se 2·80) mg/d (Granada, Spain) to 44·08 (se 2·45) mg/d (Turin, Italy). A clear south to north gradient intake was observed. Cyanidins and malvidins were the main anthocynidin contributors depending on the region and sex. Anthocyanidin intake was higher in non-obese older females, non-smokers, and increased with educational level and physical activity. The major food sources were fruits, wine, non-alcoholic beverages and some vegetables. The present study shows differences in both total and individual anthocyanidin intakes and various lifestyle factors throughout Europe, with some geographical variability in their food sources

Adolescents’ dietary polyphenol intake in relation to serum total antioxidant capacity: the HELENA study

We evaluated the association between intake of total polyphenols, polyphenol classes and the 10 most consumed individual polyphenols with serum total antioxidant capacity (TAC) in 749 European adolescents (53% girls; 15% overweight; 12.5–17.5 years-old) from the cross-sectional HELENA study of 2006–2007. Dietary polyphenol intake was calculated from two non-consecutive 24-h recalls matched with the Phenol-Explorer database. Multilevel linear models examined the associations between dietary polyphenols and TAC. Polyphenol intake was rather low (median = 321mg/day; p25 = 158; p75 = 536) and TAC was comparable to other literature findings (median = 1.57 mmol/L; p25 = 1.45; p75 = 1.74). Total polyphenol intake, polyphenol classes and the top 10 compounds were not associated with TAC in a linear, quadratic or cubic way in partially or fully confounder-adjusted models. A direct anti-oxidative effect of dietary polyphenol intake was not observed in European adolescents. Polyphenol biomarkers and additional antioxidant measures are needed in future prospective studies to confirm these results.The HELENA Study was carried out with the financial support of the European Community Sixth RTD Framework Programme (Contract FOODCT-2005-007034). The first author was sponsored as PhD student by Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP, Indonesia).Peer reviewe

Dietary intakes of individual flavanols and flavonols are inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.

Dietary flavanols and flavonols, flavonoid subclasses, have been recently associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Europe. Even within the same subclass, flavonoids may differ considerably in bioavailability and bioactivity. We aimed to examine the association between individual flavanol and flavonol intakes and risk of developing T2D across European countries. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 8 European countries across 26 study centers with 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, among whom 12,403 incident T2D cases were ascertained and a center-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals was defined. We estimated flavonoid intake at baseline from validated dietary questionnaires using a database developed from Phenol-Explorer and USDA databases. We used country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and random-effects meta-analysis methods to estimate HRs. Among the flavanol subclass, we observed significant inverse trends between intakes of all individual flavan-3-ol monomers and risk of T2D in multivariable models (all P-trend < 0.05). We also observed significant trends for the intakes of proanthocyanidin dimers (HR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.71, 0.92; P-trend = 0.003) and trimers (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.80, 1.04; P-trend = 0.07) but not for proanthocyanidins with a greater polymerization degree. Among the flavonol subclass, myricetin (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.93; P-trend = 0.001) was associated with a lower incidence of T2D. This large and heterogeneous European study showed inverse associations between all individual flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins with a low polymerization degree, and the flavonol myricetin and incident T2D. These results suggest that individual flavonoids have different roles in the etiology of T2D.The EPIC-InterAct Study was supported by the European Union (Integrated Project LSHM-CT-2006-037197 in the Framework Programme 6 of the European Community). In addition, InterAct investigators acknowledge funding from the following agencies: R.Z.-R. was supported by a postdoctoral program Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria (FIS; no. CD09/00133) from the Spanish Ministry of Science; R.Z.-R. and C.A.G. were supported by the Health Research Fund (FIS) of the Spanish Ministry of Health (RTICC DR06/0020/0091); core support from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Epidemiology Unit is acknowledged for program MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_UU_12015/5; Y.T.v.d.S. was supported by NL Agency grant IGE05012 and an Incentive Grant from the Board of the UMC Utrecht (Netherlands); A.M.W.S. and D.L.v.d.A. were supported by the Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare, and Sports, Netherlands Cancer Registry, LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON, World Cancer Research Fund, and Statistics Netherlands; T.J.K. and K.-T.K. were supported by Cancer Research UK; G.F., M.T., and F.P. were supported by Ligue contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, INSERM; G.M. was supported by Ministero della Salute Regione Toscana Progetto Integrato Oncologia–PIO; P.W.F. was supported by the Swedish Research Council, Novo Nordisk, the Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, and the Swedish Diabetes Association; L.B., K.O., N.R., and A.T. were supported by the Danish Cancer Society; V.K. and T.K. were supported by Deutsche Krebshilfe; A.M. was supported by Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro; M.L.R. was supported by the Asturias Regional Government; M.G., P.A., E.M.-M., and M.J.T. were supported by the Health Research Fund of the Spanish Ministry of Health, CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (Spain); M.J.T. was supported by the Murcia Regional Government; and R.T. was supported by AIRE-ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS-Ragusa, the Sicilian Regional Government.This is the final published version distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which can also be found on the publisher's website at: http://jn.nutrition.org/content/144/3/335.ful