Weighted entropy and optimal portfolios for risk-averse Kelly investments

Following a series of works on capital growth investment, we analyse log-optimal portfolios where the return evaluation includes `weights' of different outcomes. The results are twofold: (A) under certain conditions, the logarithmic growth rate leads to a supermartingale, and (B) the optimal (martingale) investment strategy is a proportional betting. We focus on properties of the optimal portfolios and discuss a number of simple examples extending the well-known Kelly betting scheme. An important restriction is that the investment does not exceed the current capital value and allows the trader to cover the worst possible losses. The paper deals with a class of discrete-time models. A continuous-time extension is a topic of an ongoing study

The vegetation history of an Amazonian domed peatland

The peatland pole forests of the Pastaza-Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB), Peru, are the most carbon-dense ecosystems known in Amazonia once below ground carbon stores are taken into account. Here we present the first multiproxy palaeoenvironmental record including pollen data from one of these peatlands, San Jorge in northern Peru, supported by an age model based on radiocarbon and 210Pb dating. The pollen data indicate that vegetation changes during the early phases of peat initiation resulted from autogenic succession in combination with fluvial influence. The overall pattern of vegetation change is not straightforward: the record does not reflect a process of unidirectional, progressive terrestrialization, but includes a reversal in the succession and vegetation transitions, which omit predicted successional phases. This complexity is similar to that seen in the only other existing pollen record from a PMFB peatland, at Quistococha, but contrasts with peat records from Panama and Southeast Asia where successional patterning appears more predictable. Our dating results provide the first evidence from a PMFB peatland that peat accumulation may have been discontinuous, with evidence for reduced rates of peat accumulation, or a possible hiatus, around 1300–400 cal yr BP. An ecological shift from open lake to palm swamp occurs at this time, possibly driven by climatic change. The pollen data indicate that the present pole forest vegetation at San Jorge began to assemble c. 200–150 cal yr BP. Given this young age, it is likely that the pole forest at this site remains in a state of transition

Serotype-specific correlates of protection for pneumococcal carriage: an analysis of immunity in 19 countries.

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide direct protection against disease in those vaccinated, and interrupt transmission through the prevention of nasopharyngeal carriage. Methods: We analysed immunogenicity data from 5224 infants who received PCV in prime-boost schedules. We defined any increase in antibody between the one-month post-priming visit and the booster dose as an indication of nasopharyngeal carriage ('seroincidence'). We calculated antibody concentrations using receiver-operator characteristic curves, and used generalised additive models to compute their protective efficacy against seroincidence. To support seroincidence as a marker of carriage, we compared seroincidence in a randomised immunogenicity trial in Nepal with the serotype-specific prevalence of carriage in the same community. Findings: In Nepalese infants, seroincidence of carriage closely correlated with serotype-specific carriage prevalence in the community. In the larger data set, antibody concentrations associated with seroincidence were lowest for serotypes 6B and 23F (0.50 µg/mL and 0.63 µg/mL respectively), and highest for serotypes 19F and 14 (2.54 µg/mL and 2.48 µg/mL respectively). The protective efficacy of antibody at these levels was 62% and 74% for serotypes 6B and 23F, and 87% and 84% for serotypes 19F and 14. Protective correlates were on average 2.15 times higher in low/lower middle income countries than in high/upper middle income countries (GMR 2.15, 95%CI 1.46-3.17, p=0.0024). Interpretation: Antibody concentrations associated with protection vary between serotypes. Higher antibody concentrations are required for protection in low-income countries. These findings are important for global vaccination policy, to interrupt transmission by protecting against carriage

Urban particulate matter stimulation of human dendritic cells enhances priming of naive CD8 T lymphocytes

Wellcome Trust. Grant Number: 098882/Z/12/Z National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

An autonomous chemically fuelled small-molecule motor

Molecular machines are among the most complex of all functional molecules and lie at the heart of nearly every biological process. A number of synthetic small-molecule machines have been developed, including molecular muscles, synthesizers, pumps, walkers, transporters and light-driven and electrically driven rotary motors. However, although biological molecular motors are powered by chemical gradients or the hydrolysis of adenosine triphosphate (ATP), so far there are no synthetic small-molecule motors that can operate autonomously using chemical energy (that is, the components move with net directionality as long as a chemical fuel is present). Here we describe a system in which a small molecular ring (macrocycle) is continuously transported directionally around a cyclic molecular track when powered by irreversible reactions of a chemical fuel, 9-fluorenylmethoxycarbonyl chloride. Key to the design is that the rate of reaction of this fuel with reactive sites on the cyclic track is faster when the macrocycle is far from the reactive site than when it is near to it. We find that a bulky pyridine-based catalyst promotes carbonate-forming reactions that ratchet the displacement of the macrocycle away from the reactive sites on the track. Under reaction conditions where both attachment and cleavage of the 9-fluorenylmethoxycarbonyl groups occur through different processes, and the cleavage reaction occurs at a rate independent of macrocycle location, net directional rotation of the molecular motor continues for as long as unreacted fuel remains. We anticipate that autonomous chemically fuelled molecular motors will find application as engines in molecular nanotechnology.</p

Geographic Coincidence of Increased Malaria Transmission Hazard and Vulnerability Occurring at the Periphery of two Tanzanian Villages.

The goal of malaria elimination necessitates an improved understanding of any fine-scale geographic variations in transmission risk so that complementary vector control tools can be integrated into current vector control programmes as supplementary measures that are spatially targeted to maximize impact upon residual transmission. This study examines the distribution of host-seeking malaria vectors at households within two villages in rural Tanzania. Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled from 72 randomly selected households in two villages on a monthly basis throughout 2008 using CDC light-traps placed beside occupied nets. Spatial autocorrelation in the dataset was examined using the Moran's I statistic and the location of any clusters was identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Statistical associations between the household characteristics and clusters of mosquitoes were assessed using a generalized linear model for each species. For both Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and Anopheles funestus, the density of host-seeking females was spatially autocorrelated, or clustered. For both species, houses with low densities were clustered in the semi-urban village centre while houses with high densities were clustered in the periphery of the villages. Clusters of houses with low or high densities of An. gambiae s.l. were influenced by the number of residents in nearby houses. The occurrence of high-density clusters of An. gambiae s.l. was associated with lower elevations while An. funestus was also associated with higher elevations. Distance from the village centre was also positively correlated with the number of household occupants and having houses constructed with open eaves. The results of the current study highlight that complementary vector control tools could be most effectively targeted to the periphery of villages where the households potentially have a higher hazard (mosquito densities) and vulnerability (open eaves and larger households) to malaria infection

The effect of variation in donor platelet function on transfusion outcome: A semi-randomised controlled trial

The effect of variation in platelet function in platelet donors on patient outcome following platelet transfusion is unknown. This trial assessed the hypothesis that platelets collected from donors with highly responsive platelets to agonists in vitro assessed by flow cytometry (high-responder donors) are cleared more quickly from the circulation than those from low-responder donors, resulting in lower platelet count increments following transfusion. This parallel group, semirandomized double-blinded trial was conducted in a single center in the United Kingdom. Eligible patients were those 16 or older with thrombocytopenia secondary to bone marrow failure, requiring prophylactic platelet transfusion. Patients were randomly assigned to receive a platelet donation from a high- or low-responder donor when both were available, or when only 1 type of platelet was available, patients received that. Participants, investigators, and those assessing outcomes were masked to group assignment. The primary end point was the platelet count increment 10 to 90 minutes following transfusion. Analysis was by intention to treat. Fifty-one patients were assigned to receive platelets from low-responder donors, and 49 from high-responder donors (47 of which were randomized and 53 nonrandomized). There was no significant difference in platelet count increment 10 to 90 minutes following transfusion in patients receiving platelets from high-responder (mean, 21.0 × 109/L; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.9-37.2) or low-responder (mean, 23.3 × 109/L; 95% CI, 7.8-38.9) donors (mean difference, 2.3; 95% CI, −1.1 to 5.7; P = .18). These results support the current policy of not selecting platelet donors on the basis of platelet function for prophylactic platelet transfusion.This work was supported in part by program grants from the NIHR (RP-PG-0310-1002), National Health Service Blood and Transplant (BS07/1R), and NIHR Cambridge BioResource

Proposals for evaluating the regularity of a scientist'sresearch output

Evaluating the career of individual scientists according to their scientific output is a common bibliometric problem. Two aspects are classically taken into account: overall productivity and overall diffusion/impact, which can be measured by a plethora of indicators that consider publications and/or citations separately or synthesise these two quantities into a single number (e.g. h-index). A secondary aspect, which is sometimes mentioned in the rules of competitive examinations for research position/promotion, is time regularity of one researcher's scientific output. Despite the fact that it is sometimes invoked, a clear definition of regularity is still lacking. We define it as the ability of generating an active and stable research output over time, in terms of both publications/ quantity and citations/diffusion. The goal of this paper is introducing three analysis tools to perform qualitative/quantitative evaluations on the regularity of one scientist's output in a simple and organic way. These tools are respectively (1) the PY/CY diagram, (2) the publication/citation Ferrers diagram and (3) a simplified procedure for comparing the research output of several scientists according to their publication and citation temporal distributions (Borda's ranking). Description of these tools is supported by several examples

Automated data analysis to rapidly derive and communicate ecological insights from satellite-tag data: A case study of reintroduced red kites

Analysis of satellite-telemetry data mostly occurs long after it has been collected, due to the time and effort needed to collate and interpret such material. Such delayed reporting does reduce the usefulness of such data for nature conservation when timely information about animal movements is required. To counter this problem we present a novel approach which combines automated analysis of satellite-telemetry data with rapid communication of insights derived from such data. A relatively simple algorithm (comprising speed of movement and turning angle calculated from fixes), allowed instantaneous detection of excursions away from settlement areas and automated calculation of home ranges on the remaining data Automating the detection of both excursions and home range calculations enabled us to disseminate ecological insights from satellite-tag data instantaneously through a dedicated web portal to inform conservationists and wider audiences. We recommend automated analysis, interpretation and communication of satellite tag and other ecological data to advance nature conservation research and practice