Methodological and empirical progress and challenges in integrated assessment of agricultural systems and policies

In this contribution we first present a methodology for integrated assessment of agricultural systems (SEAMLESS Integrated Framework), illustrate its application in an integrated assessment of high commodity prices and then discuss its flexibility and limitations. From there we take a broader view and reflect on key scientific and empirical questions with respect to the development of research tools for the integrated assessment of agricultural systems.agricultural systems, integrated assessment, modelling, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

EXPAMOD: A methodological Tool for Linking Farm and Market Models by Means of Econometric Response Functions

Technical change at the farm level or changes in input prices often entail that the firm's supply function changes. These changes can take place in numerous ways. This paper presents a methodology that increases the consistency in supply responses across various sets of agricultural products and farm types with a market model based on a statistical response function approach. Since most farm simulation models are limited to a subset of regions and farm types, the linkage to an aggregated model requires a procedure for expanding these results to non sample regions, so that full regional coverage is achieved. This paper addresses theoretical aspects related to the consistency between micro and market level models. Next it deals with some empirical findings related to the selection of different functional forms for extrapolation. We conclude with a critical reflection on applicability of this method in addressing further needs on up-scaling of other economic as well as non-economic indicators.farm models, market models, extrapolation, Farm Management,

Integrated assessment of the EU’s greening reform and feed self-sufficiency scenarios on dairy farms in Piemonte, Italy

Specialised dairy farms are challenged to be competitive and yet respect environmental constrains. A tighter integration of cropping and livestock systems, both in terms of feed and manure flows, can be beneficial for the farm economy and the environment. The greening of the direct payments, which was introduced in the European Union’s greening reform in 2013, is assumed tostimulate the transition towards more sustainable systems. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the impacts of greening policies on important economic and environmental indicators of sustainability, and explore potential further improvements in policies. The Farm System SIMulator (FSSIM) bioeconomic farm model was used to simulate the consequences of scenarios of policy change on three representative dairy farms in Piedmont, Italy, i.e., an ‘intensive’, an ‘extensive’, and an ‘organic’ dairy farm. Results showed that in general, there is a large potential to increase the current economic performance of all of the farms. The most profitable activity is milk production, resulting in the allocation of all of the available farm land to feed production. Imposing feed self-sufficiency targets results in a larger adaptation of current managerial practice than the adaptations that are required due to the greening policy scenario. It was shown that the cropping system is not always able to sustain theactual herd composition when 90% feed self-sufficiency is imposed. Regarding the greening policies, it is shown that extensive and organic farms already largely comply with the greening constrains, and the extra subsidy is therefore a bonus, while the intensive farm is likely to sacrifice the subsidy, as adapting the farm plan will substantially reduce profit. The introduction of nitrogen (N)-fixingcrops in ecological focus areas was the easiest greening strategy to adopt, and led to an increase in the protein feed self-sufficiency. In conclusion, it is important to note that the greening policy in its current form does not lead to reduced environmental impacts. This implies that in order to improveenvironmental performance, regulations are needed rather than voluntary economic incentives

Labour not land constrains agricultural production and food self-sufficiency in maize-based smallholder farming systems in Mozambique

Despite abundant land and favourable climatic conditions, Mozambique remains food insecure. We investigated the diversity, constraints and opportunities to increase smallholder productivity and achieve food self-sufficiency in maize-based farming systems in two Posts in central Mozambique. We identified four farm types in each village based on cultivated area and labour. Farm type 1 cultivated relatively large areas, owned cattle and hired in labour. Farm type 2 cultivated moderate areas and both hired in and hired out labour. Farms of type 3a and 3b cultivated the smallest areas. Farm type 3a shared labour while Farm type 3b only hired out labour. For each farm type, we calculated land and labour productivities of maize, sunflower and sesame and assessed maize self-sufficiency. Access to labour during weeding was the main constraint. The hiring out of labour by small farms caused severe reductions in both land and labour productivity. Yield reductions on these farms were due to delayed weeding in own fields. In one Post, Farm type 3b was not maize self-sufficient. Labour quality was probably impaired by excess alcohol consumption among the poorer farmers (both men and women). Our results showed that production can be increased based on current agricultural practices. Farmers did not cultivate all of their land, suggesting that lack of labour constrained intensification by smallholder farmers

FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies

The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific region. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impacts of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside area will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simulate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a bio-physical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis

Integration of all FSSIM components within SEAMLESS-IF and a stand alone Graphical User Interface for FSSIM

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models

A comparative study of the household sector's demand for electricity in England and Wales and in Greece, and the implications for the forecasting of electricity demand

This thesis is concerned with the theoretical analysis of household demand for electricity and its empirical investigation for England & Wales and Greece. In an introductory chapter the methodological issues and particular problems which have motivated this work are spelt out. These objectives are organically connected with the problematic areas in the field, which are brought out by a review of the literature dealt with in Chapter Two. In Chapter Three the nature o f household demand for electricity is explored. This leads eventually to the conclusion that the most appropriate approach is to regard household demand for electricity in each main application as the product of two entities, namely the stock of appliances and the «intensity of the irutilization and to analyse separately the functional determinants of each entity. Thus, the disaggregate two-stage methodological approach is form ally introduced. In Chapters Four and Five the above methodology is applied, so far as data limitations permit, to the analysis of household demand for electricity in England & Wales. In Chapter Six the aggregate household demand for electricity in Greece is analysed. In particular an attempt is made to study demand by main region. Although only a crude approximation to a full regional treatment is possible, this disaggregation is of great importance because of the very different stages of development in different parts of the country. The variability of electricity supply and the simultaneous determination of the demand for and the price of electricity are examined in some depth. Finally Chapter Seven provides an outline of the main conclusions of this thesis, with particular emphasis on their practical implications in relation to the needs of electricity supply systems in assessing and forecasting demand