Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2−7% reduction in the mean and a 10−36% reduction in the 5th−95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates

A cross-sectional exploratory analysis between pet ownership and sleep, exercise, health and neighborhood perceptions : The Whitehall II cohort study

A cross-sectional exploratory analysis between pet ownership and sleep, exercise, health and neighbourhood perceptions: The Whitehall II cohort study Gill Mein (corresponding author), Robert Grant. Faculty of Health, Social Care and Education. Kingston University and St George’s University of London Background: To explore associations between pets, and specifically dog ownership and sleep, health, exercise and neighbourhood. Methods: Cross sectional examination of 6575 participants of the Whitehall II study aged between 59-79 years. We used self-assessed measurement scales of the Short Form (SF36), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), Control, Autonomy, Self-realisation and Pleasure (CASP), Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), sleep, exercise, and perceptions of local neighbourhood. In addition the Mini Mental State Examination which is administered to test global cognitive status (MMSE) Results: We found 2/7 people owned a pet and of those 64% were “very” attached to their pet. Mild exercise in metabolic equivalents (MET-hours) was significantly higher in pet owners than non-owners (median 27.8 (IQR 18.1 to 41.8) vs 25.7 (IQR 16.8 to 38.7), p=0.0001), and in dog owners than other pets (median 32.3 (IQR 20.8 to 46.1) vs 25.6 (IQR 16.8 to 38.5), p<0.0001). Moderate exercise was also significantly higher in pet owners than non pet owners (median 11.8 (IQR 4.2 to 21.9) vs 9.8 (IQR 2.8 to 19.5), p<0.0001), and dog owners than owners of other pets (median 12.3 (IQR 4.2 to 22.2) vs 10.1 (3.1 to 20.0), p=0.0002) but there were no significant differences with vigorous exercise. We found that pet owners were significantly more positive about their neighbourhood than non-owners on 8/9 questions, while dog owners were (significantly) even more positive than owners of other pets on 8/9 questions. Associations with sleep were mixed, although dog owners had less trouble falling asleep than non-dog owners, with borderline statistical significance. Conclusion: Dog owners feel more positive about their neighbourhood, do more exercise, and fall asleep more easily than non-dog owners. These results suggest that dog owners could be more likely to exercise by walking their dogs and therefore may be more familiar and positive about the area in which they walk their dog

The Turkey Ig-like receptor family: identification, expression and function.

The chicken leukocyte receptor complex located on microchromosome 31 encodes the chicken Ig-like receptors (CHIR), a vastly expanded gene family which can be further divided into three subgroups: activating CHIR-A, bifunctional CHIR-AB and inhibitory CHIR-B. Here, we investigated the presence of CHIR homologues in other bird species. The available genome databases of turkey, duck and zebra finch were screened with different strategies including BLAST searches employing various CHIR sequences, and keyword searches. We could not identify CHIR homologues in the distantly related zebra finch and duck, however, several partial and complete sequences of CHIR homologues were identified on chromosome 3 of the turkey genome. They were designated as turkey Ig-like receptors (TILR). Using cDNA derived from turkey blood and spleen RNA, six full length TILR could be amplified and further divided according to the typical sequence features into one activating TILR-A, one inhibitory TILR-B and four bifunctional TILR-AB. Since the TILR-AB sequences all displayed the critical residues shown to be involved in binding to IgY, we next confirmed the IgY binding using a soluble TILR-AB1-huIg fusion protein. This fusion protein reacted with IgY derived from various gallinaceous birds, but not with IgY from other bird species. Finally, we tested various mab directed against CHIR for their crossreactivity with either turkey or duck leukocytes. Whereas no staining was detectable with duck cells, the CHIR-AB1 specific mab 8D12 and the CHIR-A2 specific mab 13E2 both reacted with a leukocyte subpopulation that was further identified as thrombocytes by double immunofluorescence employing B-cell, T-cell and thrombocyte specific reagents. In summary, although the turkey harbors similar LRC genes as the chicken, their distribution seems to be distinct with predominance on thrombocytes rather than lymphocytes

Inter-annual decrease in pulse rate and peak frequency of Southeast Pacific blue whale song types

The decrease in the frequency of two southeast Pacific blue whale song types was examined over decades, usingacoustic data from several different sources ranging between the Equator and Chilean Patagonia. The pulse rate ofthe song units as well as their peak frequency were measured using two different methods (summed auto-correlationand Fourier transform). The sources of error associated with each measurement were assessed. There was a lineardecline in both parameters for the more common song type (southeast Pacific song type n ◦ 2). An abbreviated analysisalso showed a frequency decline in the scarcer southeast Pacific song type n ◦ 1 between 1970 to 2014, revealing thatboth song types are declining at similar rates. We discussed the use of measuring both pulse rate and peak frequencyto examine the frequency decline. Finally, a comparison of the rates of frequency decline with other song typesreported in the literature is presented.La décroissance en fréquence des deux chants de baleine bleue de l'océan pacifique sud est est examiné sur plusieurs décennies en utilisant comme source des données acoustiques de l'Equateur à la Patagonie chilienne. La fréquence de pulsation et la fréquence pic des signaux sont mesurés en utilisant deux méthodes distinctes (auto-corrélation sommée et transformée de Fourier rapide). Les sources d'erreur associées à chaque mesure sont estimées. Il y a un déclin linéaire de ces deux fréquences pour le chant le plus commun de cette zone (chant du Pacifique Sud Est n°2, SEP2). Un analyse plus rapide montre aussi une baisse linéaire, entre 1970 et 2014, de la fréquence du chant SEP1, plus rarement enregistré dans cette zone. Ces deux baisses ont des amplitudes similaires. L'intérêt de mesurer la fréquence de pulsation et la fréquence pic de façon concomitante est estimé. Enfin, une comparaison globale des déclins en fréquence de tous les types de chants de baleines bleues est fournie

‘Fish out of water’: a cross-sectional study on the interaction between social and neighbourhood effects on weight management behaviours

Objective: To analyse whether an individual’s neighbourhood influences the uptake of weight management strategies and whether there is an interaction between individual socio-economic status and neighbourhood deprivation. Methodology: Data were collected from the Yorkshire Health Study (2010–2012) for 27 806 individuals on the use of the following weight management strategies: ‘slimming clubs’, ‘healthy eating’, ‘increasing exercise’ and ‘controlling portion size’. A multi-level logistic regression was fit to analyse the use of these strategies, controlling for age, sex, body mass index, education, neighbourhood deprivation and neighbourhood population turnover (a proxy for neighbourhood social capital). A cross-level interaction term was included for education and neighbourhood deprivation. Lower Super Output Area was used as the geographical scale for the areal unit of analysis. Results: Significant neighbourhood effects were observed for use of ‘slimming clubs’, ‘healthy eating’ and ‘increasing exercise’ as weight management strategies, independent of individual- and area-level covariates. A significant interaction between education and neighbourhood deprivation was observed across all strategies, suggesting that as an area becomes more deprived, individuals of the lowest education are more likely not to use any strategy compared with those of the highest education. Conclusions: Neighbourhoods modify/amplify individual disadvantage and social inequalities, with individuals of low education disproportionally affected by deprivation. It is important to include neighbourhood-based explanations in the development of community-based policy interventions to help tackle obesit

Impact of social ties on self reported health in France: Is everyone affected equally?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>To examine the association of social ties and income with self reported health, in order to investigate if social ties have a greater impact on the health of people on low incomes compared to those financially better off.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A nationally representative cross-sectional study of 5205 French adults using data from questionnaires which asked about health, income and relationships with family and friends etc.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Less than good self-rated health (SRH) is twice as frequently reported by people in the lowest income group than those in the highest income group. People with low incomes are also more likely to have felt alone on the previous day, received no phone call during the last week, have no friends, not be a member of a club, and to live alone. Socially isolated people report lower SRH. Likelihood ratio tests for interaction vs. main effect models were statistically significant for 2 of the measures of social ties, borderline for 2 others and non-significant for one. For 4 of the 5 indicators of social ties, larger odd ratios show that social isolation is more strongly associated with less than good SRH among people on low incomes compared to those with a higher income.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Social isolation is associated with 'less than good' self-rated health. This effect appears to be more important for people on a low income.</p

Reliability and validity of the Thai version of the PHQ-9

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most depression screening tools in Thailand are lengthy. The long process makes them impractical for routine use in primary care. This study aims to examine the reliability and validity of a Thai version Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as a screening tool for major depression in primary care patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The English language PHQ-9 was translated into Thai. The process involved back-translation, cross-cultural adaptation, field testing of the pre-final version, as well as final adjustments. The PHQ-9 was then administered among 1,000 patients in family practice clinic. Of these 1,000 patients, 300 were further assessed by the Thai version of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) and the Thai version of the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D). These tools served as gold-standards for diagnosing depression and for assessing symptom severity, respectively. In the assessment, reliability and validity analyses, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Complete data were obtained from 924 participants and 279 interviewed respondents. The mean age of the participants was 45.0 years (SD = 14.3) and 73.7% of them were females. The mean PHQ-9 score was 4.93 (SD = 3.75). The Thai version of the PHQ-9 had satisfactory internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.79) and showed moderate convergent validity with the HAM-D (r = 0.56; P < 0.001). The categorical algorithm of the PHQ-9 had low sensitivity (0.53) but very high specificity (0.98) and positive likelihood ratio (27.37). Used as a continuous measure, the optimal cut-off score of PHQ-9 ≥ 9 revealed a sensitivity of 0.84, specificity of 0.77, positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.21, negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99, and positive likelihood ratio of 3.71. The area under the curve (AUC) in this study was 0.89 (SD = 0.05, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.92).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Thai version of the PHQ-9 has acceptable psychometric properties for screening for major depression in general practice with a recommended cut-off score of nine or greater.</p

Prevalence of physical inactivity and barriers to physical activity among obese attendants at a community health-care center in Karachi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overweight and obesity are significant public health problems worldwide with serious health consequences. With increasing urbanization and modernization there has been an increase in prevalence of obesity that is attributed to reduced levels of physical activity (PA). However, little is known about the prevalence of physical inactivity and factors that prohibit physical activity among Pakistani population. This cross-sectional study is aimed at estimating the prevalence of physical inactivity, and determining associated barriers in obese attendants accompanying patients coming to a Community Health Center in Karachi, Pakistan.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>PA was assessed by using international physical activity questionnaire (IPAQ). Barriers to PA were also assessed in inactive obese attendants. A pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect data from a total of 350 obese attendants. Among 350 study participants 254 (72.6%) were found to be physically inactive (95% CI: 68.0%, 77.2%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that age greater than 33 years, BMI greater than 33 kg/m²and family history of obesity were independently and significantly associated with physical inactivity. Moreover, there was a significant interaction between family structure and gender; females living in extended families were about twice more likely to be inactive, whereas males from extended families were six times more likely to be inactive relative to females from nuclear families. Lack of information, motivation and skills, spouse & family support, accessibility to places for physical activity, cost effective facilities and time were found to be important barriers to PA.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Considering the public health implications of physical inactivity it is essential to promote PA in context of an individual's health and environment. Findings highlight considerable barriers to PA among obese individuals that need to be addressed during counseling sessions with physicians.</p

Developing Literacy Learning Model Based on Multi Literacy, Integrated, and Differentiated Concept at Primary School

The main issue addressed in this research is the low writing skills of primary school students. One of the reasons for this condition is that the existing model of writing literacy learning is not appropriate. The purpose of this study is to explain MID-based literacy teaching model and the impact of the model in increasing primary school students\u27 writing skills. This study used combined methods of exploratory type. The samples were elementary school students coming from six schools with three different characteristics. Based on the data analysis, it can be concluded that the implementation of MID-based literacy learning model has proven to signi cantly contribute to the improvement of students\u27 writing skills. Taking place in all sample schools, the improvement may suggest that the model ts not only to students with high- ability but also those with low-ability. Therefore, the MID-based literacy learning model is needed to improve the ability to write various text types appropriately