Ydinaseeton Pohjola ja sen vaikutus Euroopan turvallisuuspoliittiseen tilanteeseen

Kirjoittaja on tehnyt seuraavat rajausolettamukset:"1) Suomi, Ruotsi, Norja ja Tanska muodostavat Pohjolan ydinaseettoman vyöhykkeen alueellisen perustan. 2) Neuvostoliitto ja Yhdysvallat ovat vyöhykkeen perustamisen ja toimivuuden kannalta keskeiset valtiot,3) Keski-Euroopan turvallisuuspoliittinen tilanne saattaa vaikuttaa vyöhykkeen muodostamiseen,4) Edellisten olettamusten perusteella muodostettava malli on Pohjolan suhteen tasapainossa (Mallia kutsutaan Tasapainomalliksi),5) Pohjolan ydinaseeton vyöhyke voidaan toteuttaa vain siten, että siihen liittyvien valtioiden turvallisuuspoliittinen asema ei huonone eikä Neuvostoliiton ja Yhdysvaltojen välinen voimatasapaino muutu (Tasapainoehto).Työssä käytetään rinnan käsitteitä ´Ydinaseeton Pohjola' ja 'Pohjolan ydinaseeton vyöhyke' (PYV). Edellisellä tarkoitetaan tarkemmin määrittelemätöntä poliittista ideaa ja jälkimmäisellä täsmällisesti määritellyksi oletettua turvallisuuspoliittista järjestelmää."Ensimmäisessä luvussa tarkastellaan alueellisen ydinaseettomuuden puitteissa sen historiallista taustaa, alueen perustamisen tavoitteita sekä sisällön keskeisiä ongelmia. Seuraavassa luvussa käsitellään Pohjolan ydinaseettoman vyöhykkeen muodostamisen poliittisia perusteita, kuten esimerkiksi Suomen, Ruotsin ja Nato-maiden sekä Neuvostoliiton suhtautumista siihen. Kolmas luku sisältää ydinaseettoman vyöhykkeen muodostamisen sotilaallisia perusteita johtopäätöksineen ja seuraava luku tarkastelee ydinaseetonta vyöhyke-mallia. Viimeisessä luvussa käsitellään ydinaseettoman vyöhykkeen toteuttamismahdollisuuksia ja merkitystä Suomen turvallisuuspoliittisen aseman kannalta. Artikkelin liitteet sisältävät kaaviota ja karttapiirroksia sekä usean sivun mittaisen lähdeluettelon

Potential for Timberline Advance in Northern Finland, as Revealed by Monitoring during 1983-99

Seedling density, tree density and basal area of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) were monitored and compared in the timberline areas of northern Finland during the period 1983-99. Rows of 9-12 circular plots were established at 13 localities in four regions: pine-dominated northern and southern regions and spruce-dominated western and eastern regions. Temporal changes were monitored in three altitudinal zones: in the forest, at the coniferous timberline (where forest canopy closure ceases), and at the tree line (where coniferous trees higher than 2 m cease). Pine seedling densities decreased abruptly in the southern region, especially at the timberline, but increased slightly in the northern region. The zone "region" change interaction was significant. The change in spruce seedling densities was small in the forest and timberline zones, but the densities more than doubled at the tree line. Tree density and basal area increased in all the zones and regions. New regeneration and tree establishment during the study period indicate a potential for the tree line to advance. However, there was great heterogeneity in regeneration and seedling establishment among the localities.La densité des semis, la densité des arbres et la surface terrière du pin sylvestre (Pinus sylvestris L.) et de l'épinette de Norvège (Picea abies [L.] Karst) ont fait l'objet d'une étude et d'une comparaison dans des zones situées à la limite de la forêt de la Finlande septentrionale durant la période allant de 1983 à 1999. Des rangées de 9 à 12 parcelles circulaires ont été créées à 13 sites répartis dans 4 zones: les régions septentrionale et méridionale où dominait le pin sylvestre, et les régions occidentale et orientale où dominait l'épinette de Norvège. On a mesuré les changements temporels dans 3 zones d'altitude différente: dans la forêt, à la limite de la forêt de conifères (là où cesse la fermeture du couvert forestier), et à la limite des arbres (là où cessent les conifères de plus de 2 m de haut). La densité de semis du pin sylvestre diminuait brusquement dans la région méridionale, en particulier à la limite de la forêt, mais elle augmentait légèrement dans la région septentrionale. L'interaction zone-région-changement était significative. Le changement dans la densité de semis de l'épinette de Norvège était faible dans la forêt elle-même et dans les zones de la limite de la forêt, mais la densité avait plus que doublé à la limite des arbres. La densité des arbres et la surface terrière augmentaient dans toutes les zones et les régions. Une nouvelle régénération et un nouvel établissement d'arbres durant la période d'étude révèlent que la limite des arbres pourrait progresser. Il y avait toutefois une grande hétérogénéité dans la régénération et dans l'établissement des semis parmi les divers sites

A Bayesian population model to estimate changes in the stock size in data poor cases using Mediterranean bogue (Boops boops) and picarel (Spicara smaris) as an example

The paper presents an effort to build a biologically realistic, age structured Bayesian model for the stock assessment of data poor fisheries where only aggregated catch data is available. The model is built using prior information from other areas and ecologically or taxonomically similar species. The modeling approach is tested with data poor fisheries on the Cyclades islands in Greek archipelago. The two most important species in the area are selected: bogue (Boops boops) and picarel (Spicara smaris). Both are hermaphroditic. The only data available is the total catch from 1950 to 2010. Information was gathered about natural mortality, recruitment, growth, body size, fecundity, and sex ratio. There were significant problems in finding reliable prior information and a uniform prior was used for fishing mortality. The models at their present stage are not used to give management advice. The biological characteristics of the species in that area should be further studied. However, the posteriors of biological parameters reflect the best available knowledge on these species and they could be used in future studies or in simpler biomass dynamics models as priors

Nuclear Ordering in Lithium and an Upper Limit on its Ambient Pressure Superconducting Transition Temperature

We have discovered spontaneous ordering of nuclear spins in lithium metal by NMR measurements at very low temperatures. In low magnetic fields, B < 0:2 mT, the NMR spectra show a pronounced low-frequency anomaly. Also, nonadiabatic response to a slowly varying magnetic field was observed. A rich phase diagram with three different nonparamagnetic regions is proposed. We estimate a critical spin temperature T c 350 nK at B 0. We also report the absence of superconductivity in lithium at normal pressure down to T e 100 K (B < 10 nT). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.157201 PACS numbers: 75.30.Kz, 74.10.+v, 75.30.Cr, 76.60.Jx Lithium is often regarded as the prototype metal due to its apparent simplicity. However, to begin with, its lowtemperature lattice assembly is not that trivial, as competing close-packed structures have been found to coexist The occurrence of superconductivity in lithium at reasonable temperatures has been predicted by many theoretical studies [2 -6]. The estimates for T c vary from over 1 K to a few microkelvins, most predictions suggesting a T c at the millikelvin range. Prior experiments, however, did not indicate any transition down to 4 mK 7 Li, 92.5% abundant with a spin 3=2, is an excellent target for NMR studies due to its reasonably large magnetic moment 7 3:26 N . The remaining 7.5% of 6 Li, with I 6 1 and 6 0:82 N , do not contribute much to the magnetic behavior, but can be used as a probe in analyzing the interactions between the nuclear spins Lithium is dominantly a dipolar-coupled nuclear magnet, more so than any other investigated metal Nuclear-spin order in insulators has been possible due to extremely weak coupling of the spins to the lattice. Even in metals, the nuclear-spin temperature can be reduced by several orders of magnitude below that of the lattice and electrons. While the intermediate microKelvin regime is the practical limit for refrigerating the body of well-prepared specimens, their nuclear spins may be polarized by a high magnetic field and by subsequent adiabatic demagnetization be cooled to the nanokelvin regime and even below By such procedures we were able to prepare a magnetically ordered state of nuclear spins in lithium. On the basis of measurements of the spectral resonance shapes, observation of nonadiabatic effects, and determination of the spin temperature, we propose a nontrivial phase diagram with several distinct regions of different characteristics. We obtained the critical temperature of 350 nK in zero magnetic field. The sample material was purchased from Alfa Aesar [17], whose analysis indicated 99.97% purity. The content of magnetic impurities (iron) was at most 4 ppm, and we measured the residual resistivity ratio 900 100. Lithium reacts eagerly with air, whereby the samples were protected by copper capsules The best conditions for observing the two phenomena under discussion are somewhat contradictory, so that we prepared two different samples to satisfy both. A low transition temperature of superconductivity is associated with a very low critical magnetic field and potential supercooling of the normal state in any finite field. Therefore, the superconductivity (SC) sample was placed inside an efficient magnetic shield with a cylindrical layered high-permeability-superconducting (Pb) -highpermeability structure

Varhaiskasvatuksen ammattilaisten toimiviksi koetut käytänteet lapsen kiinnipitotilanteiden ennakointiin, kiinnipitotilanteisiin ja jälkiselvittelyyn varhaiskasvatuksessa

Tiivistelmä. Lasten aggressiivisuuden lisääntymisen myötä kiinnipitotilanteiden tarpeen voidaan tulkita kasvaneen kasvatuksen ja koulutuksen kentällä. Varhaiskasvatuslaissa (540/2018) ei ole mainintaa lasten kiinnipitotilanteista, minkä vuoksi varhaiskasvatuksen ammattilaisilla ei ole valtakunnallisia ohjeistuksia kiinnipitotilanteisiin. Aiheesta on vähän saatavilla olevaa tutkimustietoa varhaiskasvatuksen kontekstissa. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tuottaa tietoa varhaiskasvatuksen ammattilaisten toimiviksi koetuista käytänteistä kiinnipitotilanteiden ennakointiin, kiinnipitotilanteisiin ja jälkiselvittelyyn liittyen. Tarkoituksena oli selvittää myös paikallisten ohjeistusten saatavuutta ja kouluttautuneisuutta sekä ohjeistuksiin ja koulutuksiin liittyviä kehittämistarpeita. Lisäksi tavoitteenamme oli selvittää kiinnipitotilanteiden esiintyvyyttä varhaiskasvatuksessa. Fenomenologinen lähestymistapa sopii hyvin tarkastelemaan varhaiskasvatusammattilaisten kokemuksia ja kuvamaan koettua arkea. Sähköinen kyselyaineisto analysoitiin teoriaohjaavalla sisällönanalyysilla. Tutkielman tulosten mukaan kiinnipitotilanteiden ennakoinnissa toimivaksi koettiin lapsen tunteiden hallinnan tukeminen, toimintakulttuurin kehittäminen, arjen rakenteellinen toimivuus sekä lasta tukevan aikuisen toiminta. Kiinnipitotilanteen toimivat käytänteet muodostuivat toimintatavoista, aikuisen toiminnasta sekä turvallisuudesta. Jälkiselvittelyyn liittyviin toimiviin käytänteisiin sisällytettiin kiinnipitotilanteen läpikäynti lapsen kanssa sensitiivisellä tavalla, läpikäynti ja jatkosuunnitelman laatiminen sekä raportointi- ja ilmoitusmenettelyt. Kaikki esille nousseet toimiviksi koetut käytänteet kohdistuivat ympäristön ja aikuisen toiminnan muokkaamiseen, mitä voidaan pitää lapsen tuen järjestämisen lähtökohtana. Tulosten perusteella kiinnipitotilanteita tapahtuu varhaiskasvatuksessa, minkä vuoksi varhaiskasvatuksen ammattilaiset kaipaavat heidän työtään tukevia ja kaikkien saatavilla olevia ohjeistuksia sekä koulutusta kiinnipitotilanteisiin. Tilanne ohjeistusten ja kouluttautumisen suhteen vaihtelee varhaiskasvatuksen kentällä. Jotta taattaisiin yhteneväiset ohjeistukset ja koulutus kiinnipitotilanteisiin, tulisi kiinnipidosta olla saatavilla velvoittavat ja valtakunnalliset asiakirjat varhaiskasvatukseen

Lessons from a year of COVID-19 in Zambia: reported attendance and mask wearing at large gatherings in rural communities

Zambia instituted prevention behavior guidelines for social gatherings before the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on March 18, 2020. Guidelines included nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including mask wearing, social distancing, and reducing sizes of gatherings. Within a larger cluster randomized trial of community-based parenting groups in four rural districts (three in Southern Province, one in Eastern Province), we collected 5,711 questionnaires from intervention participants between August 2020 and September 2021, during which the country saw two COVID-19 waves. Questionnaires asked about participation and behaviors at community gatherings. Generally, perception of risk of contracting COVID-19 was low for respondents in districts in Southern Province but higher for those in Eastern Province. The highest compliance to mask wearing was reported at clinics (84%) and church services (81%), which were the most frequently attended gatherings. Many funerals were attended by 200 to 300 people, but individuals were 30% less likely to report wearing masks (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence ratio [CI]: 0.6-0.8) than those attending a clinic visit. After controlling for other variables, the odds of self-reported mask wearing at events were higher in January to March 2021 (adjusted OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3, 1.7) and July and September of 2021 (adjusted OR = 3.0, 95% CI: 2.5-3.5), timepoints that broadly overlay with two COVID-19 peaks observed in Zambia. Results suggest guideline dissemination penetrated the rural areas. However, there is need to optimize the messaging to increase compliance to NPIs at high-risk gatherings, including funerals. The findings from this analysis should be considered as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve

A qualitative assessment of community acceptability and use of a locally developed children's book to increase shared reading and parent-child interactions in rural Zambia

INTRODUCTION: Early reading interventions hold promise for increasing language and literacy development in young children and improving caregiver-child interactions. To engage rural caregivers and young children in home reading, Zambian child psychologists and education specialists developed a culturally representative, local language children's book targeted at pre-grade 1 children. OBJECTIVES: We qualitatively assessed community acceptability and use of the book distributed to households with young children in two provinces of Zambia. METHODS: We conducted 15 focus group discussions (FGDs) with women (n=117) who received the "Zambian folktales adapted stories for young children" book. A codebook was created a priori, based on established themes in the guide; content analysis was conducted in Nvivo v12. Data were interpreted against the Theoretical Framework on Acceptability. FINDINGS: Respondents described wide acceptability of the children's book across multiple framework constructs. Respondents believed the book was culturally appropriate for its folktale structure and appreciated the morals and lessons provided by the stories. Respondents described using the book in multiple ways including reading in one-on-one or group settings, asking the child questions about the narrative or pictures, and providing additional commentary on the actions or figures in the pictures. Respondents believed the books were helping children grow their vocabulary and early literacy skills. The book's simple vocabulary facilitated use by less educated caregivers. The primary concern voiced was the ability of low literacy caregivers to utilize the book for reading. DISCUSSION: The children's book was widely considered acceptable by rural Zambian communities. It provided a platform for an additional method of caregiver-child interactions in these households for reading, dialogue, and oral storytelling. Shared reading experiences have potentially substantial benefits for the language development and emergent literacy of young children. Programs to develop and deliver culturally acceptable books to households with limited access should be considered by governments and funders

Trends in maternal mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic-evidence from Zambia

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased social and emotional stressors globally, increasing mental health concerns and the risk of psychiatric illness worldwide. To date, relatively little is known about the impact of the pandemic on vulnerable groups such as women and children in low-resourced settings who generally have limited access to mental health care. We explore two rounds of data collected as part of an ongoing trial of early childhood development to assess mental health distress among mothers of children under 5-years-old living in two rural areas of Zambia during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the prevalence of mental health distress among a cohort of 1105 mothers using the World Health Organization's Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in August 2019 and after the first two infection waves in October-November 2021. Our primary outcome was mental health distress, defined as SRQ-20 score above 7. We analyzed social, economic and family level characteristics as factors modifying to the COVID-19 induced changes in the mental health status. At baseline, 22.5% of women were in mental health distress. The odds of mental health distress among women increased marginally over the first two waves of the pandemic (aOR1.22, CI 0.99-1.49). Women under age 30, with lower educational background, with less than three children, and those living in Eastern Province (compared to Southern Province) of Zambia, were found to be at highest risk of mental health deterioration during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of mental health distress is high in this population and has further worsened during COVID-19 pandemic. Public health interventions targeting mothers' mental health in low resource settings may want to particularly focus on young mothers with limited educational attainment

COVID-19 knowledge and prevention behaviors in rural Zambia: a qualitative application of the information-motivation-behavioral skills model

In early 2020, the Zambian Ministry of Health instituted prevention guidelines to limit spread of COVID-19. We assessed community knowledge, motivations, behavioral skills, and perceived community adherence to prevention behaviors (i.e., hand hygiene, mask wearing, social distancing, and limiting gatherings). Within a cluster-randomized controlled trial in four rural districts, in November 2020 and May 2021, we conducted in-depth interviews with health center staff (N = 19) and community-based volunteers (N = 34) and focus group discussions with community members (N = 281). A content analysis was conducted in Nvivo v12. Data were interpreted using the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model. Generally, respondents showed good knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, spread, and high-risk activities, with some gaps. Prevention behavior performance was driven by personal and social factors. Respondents described institutional settings (e.g., clinics and church) having higher levels of perceived adherence due to stronger enforcement measures and clear leadership. Conversely, informal community settings (e.g., weddings, funerals, football matches) lacked similar social and leadership expectations for adherence and had lower perceived levels of adherence. These settings often involved higher emotions (excitement or grief), and many involved alcohol use, resulting in community members "forgetting" guidelines. Doubt about disease existence or need for precautions persisted among some community members and drove non-adherence more generally. Although COVID-19 information successfully penetrated these very remote rural communities, more targeted messaging may address persistent COVID-19 doubt and misinformation. Engaging local leaders in religious, civic, and traditional leadership positions could improve community behaviors without adding additional monitoring duties on an already overburdened, resource-limited health system

Numerical Computations with H(div)-Finite Elements for the Brinkman Problem

The H(div)-conforming approach for the Brinkman equation is studied numerically, verifying the theoretical a priori and a posteriori analysis in previous work of the authors. Furthermore, the results are extended to cover a non-constant permeability. A hybridization technique for the problem is presented, complete with a convergence analysis and numerical verification. Finally, the numerical convergence studies are complemented with numerical examples of applications to domain decomposition and adaptive mesh refinement.Comment: Minor clarifications, added references. Reordering of some figures. To appear in Computational Geosciences, final article available at http://www.springerlink.co