Why Model?

This address treats some enduring misconceptions about modeling. One of these is that the goal is always prediction. The lecture distinguishes between explanation and prediction as modeling goals, and offers sixteen reasons other than prediction to build a model. It also challenges the common assumption that scientific theories arise from and 'summarize' data, when often, theories precede and guide data collection; without theory, in other words, it is not clear what data to collect. Among other things, it also argues that the modeling enterprise enforces habits of mind essential to freedom. It is based on the author's 2008 Bastille Day keynote address to the Second World Congress on Social Simulation, George Mason University, and earlier addresses at the Institute of Medicine, the University of Michigan, and the Santa Fe Institute.[No keywords]

Social Conformity Despite Individual Preferences for Distinctiveness

We demonstrate that individual behaviors directed at the attainment of distinctiveness can in fact produce complete social conformity. We thus offer an unexpected generative mechanism for this central social phenomenon. Specifically, we establish that agents who have fixed needs to be distinct and adapt their positions to achieve distinctiveness goals, can nevertheless self-organize to a limiting state of absolute conformity. This seemingly paradoxical result is deduced formally from a small number of natural assumptions, and is then explored at length computationally. Interesting departures from this conformity equilibrium are also possible, including divergence in positions. The effect of extremist minorities on these dynamics is discussed. A simple extension is then introduced, which allows the model to generate and maintain social diversity, including multimodal distinctiveness distributions. The paper contributes formal definitions, analytical deductions, and counterintuitive findings to the literature on individual distinctiveness and social conformity.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, appendi

The inevitability of unconditionally deleterious substitutions during adaptation

Studies on the genetics of adaptation typically neglect the possibility that a deleterious mutation might fix. Nonetheless, here we show that, in many regimes, the first substitution is most often deleterious, even when fitness is expected to increase in the long term. In particular, we prove that this phenomenon occurs under weak mutation for any house-of-cards model with an equilibrium distribution. We find that the same qualitative results hold under Fisher's geometric model. We also provide a simple intuition for the surprising prevalence of unconditionally deleterious substitutions during early adaptation. Importantly, the phenomenon we describe occurs on fitness landscapes without any local maxima and is therefore distinct from "valley-crossing". Our results imply that the common practice of ignoring deleterious substitutions leads to qualitatively incorrect predictions in many regimes. Our results also have implications for the substitution process at equilibrium and for the response to a sudden decrease in population size.Comment: Corrected typos and minor errors in Supporting Informatio

Non-pharmacological approaches for treating children with ADHD inattentive type

The behavioral difficulties of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) inattentive type differ from those of children with ADHD combined or hyperactive/impulsive type. Existing evidence-based interventions primarily target the disruptive and impulsive behaviors exhibited by children with ADHD combined and hyperactive/impulsive type. A number of recent advances have been made in the non-pharmacological treatment of behavioral difficulties associated with ADHD inattentive type. Additional research using randomized controlled research designs and long-term follow-up evaluation is necessary before these interventions may be considered established evidence-based interventions for patients with ADHD inattentive type

Water use in Florida: Examining Perceptions of Water use Based on Visual Images

Residents and decision makers often perceive information regarding water use differently. This is an issue in Florida where water quantity is a concern, and the distribution of accurate knowledge will be necessary to assist in effective conservation efforts. This study used two online surveys to gain insight into Florida residents’ and decision makers’ (county commissioners, county clerks and county managers) perceptions of water use based on visual images. Using non-probability opt-in sampling methods a total of 525 Florida residents’ responses were collected, and in a second survey 169 decision makers’ responses were collected. Respondents were asked to associate a specific water user, based on a visual, with high, moderate, or low water usage. A series of chi-square tests were used to compare and test for differences between Florida residents’ and decision makers’ perceptions, revealing that significant differences in perception did exist. The identification of these differences was used to develop recommendations for enhancing education and communication regarding water use

The Transition to Middle School is Associated with Changes in the Developmental Trajectory of ADHD Symptomatology in Young Adolescents with ADHD

The attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptom presentation of young adolescents with ADHD was examined in association with the transition to middle school. This study used data collected in the Multimodal Treatment Study of ADHD, which included children between 7 and 9 years of age with a diagnosis of ADHD (n=258) and grade- and sex-matched controls (n=112). The trajectory of ADHD symptoms before, during, and after the transition to middle school was modeled using hierarchical linear modeling. A clear developmental reduction in ADHD symptomatology was observed for all three ADHD symptom domains. For young adolescents with ADHD, the transition to middle school was associated with a disruption in the developmental decline of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity symptoms as measured by parent ratings. This effect was also observed for teacher ratings of inattention and hyperactivity. These results support the assertion that the environmental changes associated with transitioning to middle school coincide with a transient reversal in ADHD symptom decline among children with ADHD

Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool

First-principles equation of state of CHON resin for inertial confinement fusion applications

A wide-range (0 to 1044.0 g/cm3 and 0 to 109 K) equation-of-state (EOS) table for a CH1.72O0.37N0.086 quaternary compound has been constructed based on density-functional theory (DFT) molecular-dynamics (MD) calculations using a combination of Kohn-Sham DFT MD, orbital-free DFT MD, and numerical extrapolation. The first-principles EOS data are compared with predictions of simple models, including the fully ionized ideal gas and the Fermi-degenerate electron gas models, to chart their temperature-density conditions of applicability. The shock Hugoniot, thermodynamic properties, and bulk sound velocities are predicted based on the EOS table and compared to those of C-H compounds. The Hugoniot results show the maximum compression ratio of the C-H-O-N resin is larger than that of CH polystyrene due to the existence of oxygen and nitrogen; while the other properties are similar between CHON and CH. Radiation hydrodynamic simulations have been performed using the table for inertial confinement fusion targets with a CHON ablator and compared with a similar design with CH. The simulations show CHON outperforms CH as the ablator for laser-direct-drive target designs