Were The Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?

During the 1990’s several fixed or quasi-fixed exchange rate systems collapsed. Currency crises have happened in both developed and emerging countries so it is necessary to forecast and avoid them. However, financial market crises have been extremely di¢cult to forecast. Economic agents’ expectations are non-observable variables that cannot be ignored in our models. In addition, if we want to study the European case during the 1990’s, the censored disposition of the exchange rate cannot be ignored either. We propose a discrete time target zones model where these aspects are taken into account. It will be tested in a peseta/deutsche mark exchange rate framework, from June 1989 to December 1998. The results indicate differences between before and after the shift in band widths in August 1993.Target Zones, Currency Crises, Mean Reversion, Realignment Probability

Wage Assimilation of Immigrants in Spain

In this study we quantify the effect of the years of residence in Spain on the earnings of immigrants. We take sex, origin, education and age into account. The results are clearly positive, the longer the length of residence the more earnings, confirming the hypothesis of wage assimilation of immigrants as their human capital is adapted to the Spanish labor market. The information used comes from the Social Security’s Continuous Sample of Working Lives 2007. Additionally, we merge the earnings data from this source with the National Survey of Immigrants 2007 to obtain additional integration indicators, such as speaking fluently Spanish, validation of studies in Spain, studies finished in Spain. All of them increase the earnings of immigrants. We detail this results by sex and origin (Europe, Latin-America and Rest of the World).immigration, wage assimilation, wages, human capital, merging of databases

La ampliación de la Unión Europea: efectos sobre la economía española

Producción Científic

Políticas regionales sobre la raya : Castilla y León

Producción Científic