Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex, high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices

Strategic toolkits: seniority, usage and performance in the German SME machinery and equipment sector

This paper examines the strategic tool kit, from a human resource management (HRM) perspective, in terms of usage and impact. Research to date has tended to consider usage, assuming to a certain extent that knowledge and understanding of particular tools suggest that practitioners value them. The research on which this paper is based builds upon the idea that usage indicates satisfaction, but develops the usage theme to investigate which decision-makers are actually engaged in both tool appliance and the strategic process. Of particular interest to the researchers are the educational background, age and seniority of the decision-makers. In addition, potential links with HRM and organizational performance are also explored. The context of the research, the German machinery and equipment sector, provides an insight into the industry's ability to sustain growth in face of increasing international competition. The paper calls for a greater awareness, from a human resource perspective, and utilization of strategic management practice and associated decision-making aids

Spectroscopic characterization of 1.3µm GaInNAs quantum-well structures grown by metal-organic vapor phase epitaxy

We report optical studies of high-quality 1.3 μm strain-compensated GaInNAs/GaAs single-quantum-well structures grown by metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy. Photoluminescence excitation (PLE) spectroscopy shows clearly the electronic structure of the two-dimensional quantum well. The transition energies between quantized states of the electrons and holes are in agreement with theoretical calculations based on the band anti-crossing model in which the localized N states interact with the extended states in the conduction band. We also investigated the polarization properties of the luminescence by polarized edge-emission measurements. Luminescence bands with different polarization characters arising from the electron to heavy-hole and light-hole transitions, respectively, have been identified and verify the transition assignment observed in the PLE spectrum

Different models of genetic variation and their effect on genomic evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The theory of genomic selection is based on the prediction of the effects of quantitative trait loci (QTL) in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with markers. However, there is increasing evidence that genomic selection also relies on "relationships" between individuals to accurately predict genetic values. Therefore, a better understanding of what genomic selection actually predicts is relevant so that appropriate methods of analysis are used in genomic evaluations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulation was used to compare the performance of estimates of breeding values based on pedigree relationships (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, BLUP), genomic relationships (gBLUP), and based on a Bayesian variable selection model (Bayes B) to estimate breeding values under a range of different underlying models of genetic variation. The effects of different marker densities and varying animal relationships were also examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study shows that genomic selection methods can predict a proportion of the additive genetic value when genetic variation is controlled by common quantitative trait loci (QTL model), rare loci (rare variant model), all loci (infinitesimal model) and a random association (a polygenic model). The Bayes B method was able to estimate breeding values more accurately than gBLUP under the QTL and rare variant models, for the alternative marker densities and reference populations. The Bayes B and gBLUP methods had similar accuracies under the infinitesimal model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that Bayes B is superior to gBLUP to estimate breeding values from genomic data. The underlying model of genetic variation greatly affects the predictive ability of genomic selection methods, and the superiority of Bayes B over gBLUP is highly dependent on the presence of large QTL effects. The use of SNP sequence data will outperform the less dense marker panels. However, the size and distribution of QTL effects and the size of reference populations still greatly influence the effectiveness of using sequence data for genomic prediction.</p

A new dromaeosaurid (Dinosauria: Theropoda) from the Upper Cretaceous Wulansuhai Formation of Inner Mongolia, China

We describe a new dromaeosaurid theropod from the Upper Cretaceous Wulansuhai Formation of Bayan Mandahu, Inner Mongolia. The new taxon, Linheraptor exquisitus gen. et sp. nov., is based on an exceptionally well-preserved, nearly complete skeleton. This specimen represents the fifth dromaeosaurid taxon recovered from the Upper Cretaceous Djadokhta Formation and its laterally equivalent strata, which include the Wulansuhai Formation, and adds to the known diversity of Late Cretaceous dromaeosaurids. Linheraptor exquisitus closely resembles the recently reported Tsaagan mangas. Uniquely among dromaeosaurids, the two taxa share a large, anteriorly located maxillary fenestra and a contact between the jugal and the squamosal that excludes the postorbital from the infratemporal fenestra. These features suggest a sister-taxon relationship between L. exquisitus and T. mangas, which indicates the presence of a unique dromaeosaurid lineage in the Late Cretaceous of Asia. A number of cranial and dental features seen in L. exquisitus and T. mangas, and particularly some postcranial features of L. exquisitus, suggest that these two taxa are probably intermediate in systematic position between known basal and derived dromaeosaurids. The discovery of Linheraptor exquisitus is thus important for understanding the evolution of some salient features seen in the derived dromaeosaurids

The algebra of adjacency patterns: Rees matrix semigroups with reversion

We establish a surprisingly close relationship between universal Horn classes of directed graphs and varieties generated by so-called adjacency semigroups which are Rees matrix semigroups over the trivial group with the unary operation of reversion. In particular, the lattice of subvarieties of the variety generated by adjacency semigroups that are regular unary semigroups is essentially the same as the lattice of universal Horn classes of reflexive directed graphs. A number of examples follow, including a limit variety of regular unary semigroups and finite unary semigroups with NP-hard variety membership problems.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figure

Evaluation of optical techniques for characterising soil organic matter quality in agricultural soils

Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of the main global carbon pools. It is a measure of soil quality as its presence increases carbon sequestration and improves physical and chemical soil properties. The determination and characterisation of humic substances gives essential information of the maturity and stresses of soils as well as of their health. However, the determination of the exact nature and molecular structure of these substances has been proven difficult. Several complex techniques exist to characterise SOM and mineralisation and humification processes. One of the more widely accepted for its accuracy is nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Despite its efficacy, NMR needs significant economic resources, equipment, material and time. Proxy measures like the fluorescence index (FI), cold and hot-water extractable carbon (CWC and HWC) and SUVA-254 have the potential to characterise SOM and, in combination, provide qualitative and quantitative data of SOM and its processes. Spanish and British agricultural cambisols were used to measure SOM quality and determine whether similarities were found between optical techniques and 1H NMR results in these two regions with contrasting climatic conditions. High correlations (p < 0.001) were found between the specific aromatic fraction measured with 1H NMR and SUVA-254 (Rs = 0.95) and HWC (Rs = 0.90), which could be described using a linear model. A high correlation between FI and the aromatics fraction measured with 1H NMR (Rs = −0.976) was also observed. In view of our results, optical measures have a potential, in combination, to predict the aromatic fraction of SOM without the need of expensive and time consuming techniques

Domestic Rivalry and Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from International Airline Markets

The much-studied relationship between domestic rivalry and export performance consists of those supporting a national-champion rationale, and those supporting a rivalry rationale. While the empirical literature generally supports the positive effects of domestic rivalry, the national-champion rationale actually rests on firmer theoretical ground. We address this inconsistency by providing a theoretical framework that illustrates three paths via which domestic rivalry translates into enhanced international exports. Furthermore, empirical tests on the world airline industry elicit the existence of one particular path - an enhanced firm performance effect - that connects domestic rivalry with improved international exports

Illiquid Capital: Are Conservation Easement Payments Reinvested in Farms?

Agricultural conservation easements have positive externalities but few studies examine the supply-side. This paper explores whether easements may also overcome a credit-market failure, as banks may not be lending based on the full developed value of land. Original survey data test our research hypotheses and show profitable owners and nonoperators to be using easement payments to extract capital from their land by using the preservation programs as a bank. The results also show that the unprofitable owners and operators are reinvesting in their agricultural enterprises. Both results are consistent with an underlying credit-market failure, and the latter suggests that easements may provide indirect efficiency enhancement. The results suggest an integration of policies on agricultural finance and land preservation might lead to improved efficiency