Validation of an ensemble modelling system for climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a modelling system used to represent the northwest European shelf seas. Variants of the coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model, HadCM3, were run under conditions of historically varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active constituents. The atmospheric simulation for the shelf sea region and its surrounds was downscaled to finer spatial scales using a regional climate model (HadRM3); these simulations were then used to drive a river routing scheme (TRIP). Together, these provide the atmospheric, oceanic and riverine boundary conditions to drive the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Additionally, a shelf seas simulation was driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis in place of HadCM3. We compared the modelling systems output against a sea surface temperature satellite analysis product, a quality controlled ocean profile dataset and values of volume transport through particular ocean sections from the literature. In addition to assessing model drift with a pre-industrial control simulation the modelling system was evaluated against observations and the reanalysis driven simulation. We concluded that the modelling system provided an excellent (good) representation of the spatial patterns of temperature (salinity). It provided a good representation of the mean temperature climate, and a sufficient representation of the mean salinity and water column structure climate. The representation of the interannual variability was sufficient, while the overall shelf-wide circulation was qualitatively good. From this wide range of metrics we judged the modelling system fit for the purpose of providing centennial climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas

Overthickening of sedimentary sequences by igneous intrusions

This study was part of a collaboration between the University of Aberdeen, Siccar Point Energy Ltd and Integrated Geochemical Interpretation (IGI). Siccar Point Energy Ltd are thanked for giving the author permission to publish. Karolina Harvie and Kevin Ward from Petrosys are thanks for their support during the mapping process of the project. The lead author’s PhD is funded by JX Nippon Exploration and Production (U.K.) Limited as part of the Volcanic Margin Research Consortium Phase 2. PGS are thanked for allowing the author access to the MegaSurveyPlus and PGS/TGS FSB 2011-12 MultiClient GeoStreamer data and for granting permission to publish this work. Seismic interpretation was carried out using Schlumberger Petrel software. Well log analysis was carried out using Schlumberger Techlog software. Dave Ellis and Victoria Pease are thanked for the comments which greatly improved the revisions of this paper. Well data was obtained from the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) Common Data Access (CDA).Peer reviewedPostprin

Community Epidemiology Framework for Classifying Disease Threats

Ecologic and evolutionary features of multihost pathogens determine the likelihood of emerging infectious diseases

Assessment of Disparities Associated with a Crisis Standards of Care Resource Allocation Algorithm for Patients in 2 US Hospitals during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance: Significant concern has been raised that crisis standards of care policies aimed at guiding resource allocation may be biased against people based on race/ethnicity. Objective: To evaluate whether unanticipated disparities by race or ethnicity arise from a single institution\u27s resource allocation policy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adults (aged ≥18 years) who were cared for on a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ward or in a monitored unit requiring invasive or noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula between May 26 and July 14, 2020, at 2 academic hospitals in Miami, Florida. Exposures: Race (ie, White, Black, Asian, multiracial) and ethnicity (ie, non-Hispanic, Hispanic). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was based on a resource allocation priority score (range, 1-8, with 1 indicating highest and 8 indicating lowest priority) that was assigned daily based on both estimated short-term (using Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score) and longer-term (using comorbidities) mortality. There were 2 coprimary outcomes: maximum and minimum score for each patient over all eligible patient-days. Standard summary statistics were used to describe the cohort, and multivariable Poisson regression was used to identify associations of race and ethnicity with each outcome. Results: The cohort consisted of 5613 patient-days of data from 1127 patients (median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 62.7 [51.7-73.7]; 607 [53.9%] men). Of these, 711 (63.1%) were White patients, 323 (28.7%) were Black patients, 8 (0.7%) were Asian patients, and 31 (2.8%) were multiracial patients; 480 (42.6%) were non-Hispanic patients, and 611 (54.2%) were Hispanic patients. The median (IQR) maximum priority score for the cohort was 3 (1-4); the median (IQR) minimum score was 2 (1-3). After adjustment, there was no association of race with maximum priority score using White patients as the reference group (Black patients: incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89-1.12; Asian patients: IRR, 0.95; 95% CI. 0.62-1.45; multiracial patients: IRR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.72-1.19) or of ethnicity using non-Hispanic patients as the reference group (Hispanic patients: IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88-1.10); similarly, no association was found with minimum score for race, again with White patients as the reference group (Black patients: IRR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90-1.14; Asian patients: IRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.62-1.49; multiracial patients: IRR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.61-1.07) or ethnicity, again with non-Hispanic patients as the reference group (Hispanic patients: IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89-1.13). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of adult patients admitted to a COVID-19 unit at 2 US hospitals, there was no association of race or ethnicity with the priority score underpinning the resource allocation policy. Despite this finding, any policy to guide altered standards of care during a crisis should be monitored to ensure equitable distribution of resources

Sacred Cows and Sympathetic Squirrels: The Importance of Biological Diversity to Human Health

Dobson and colleagues describe how some host species act to reduce the risk of transmission of virulent zoonotic pathogens to humans

Sacred turf: the Wimbledon tennis championships and the changing politics of Englishness

© 2015 Taylor & Francis. This article is about ‘Wimbledon’, widely celebrated – not least in its own publicity material – as the world’s premier tennis tournament. It examines ‘Wimbledon’ essentially as a text (hence the inverted commas), viewed politically and historically. In this context, ‘Wimbledon’ is seen as a signifier of a certain kind of Englishness, carefully adapted to meet changing social and economic circumstance. Loose parallels are drawn between the cultural trajectory of ‘Wimbledon’ and that of the British royal family. The transmutations of ‘Wimbledon’ as a tennis championship are also seen as reflecting Britain’s decline as a world power during the twentieth century

Erratum to:Effects of a physical activity and nutrition program in retirement villages: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Abstract Background This cluster randomised controlled trial aimed to determine if a 6- month home-based intervention could improve the physical activity and dietary behaviours of adults aged 60 to 80 years living in retirement villages located in Perth, Western Australia. Methods Participants (n = 363) from 38 retirement villages were recruited into the trial and allocated to the intervention (n = 197: 17 sites) or control (n = 166: 21 sites) group and were blinded. Previously validated instruments-Fat and Fibre Barometer and International Physical Activity Questionnaire, along with anthropometric measures (weight, height, waist and hip circumferences) and blood pressure were collected at baseline and 6 -month time period. Comparisons between intervention and control groups were undertaken pre- and post- intervention using univariate chi-square and t-tests. Multi-level mixed regression analyses were then conducted to ascertain the effects of the intervention on changes in the outcome variables over time and between groups. Results A total of 139 (70.5%) intervention and 141 (84.9%) control group participants completed the program and post-test assessments. The intervention group demonstrated significant increases in time (80 min more per week on average) devoted to moderate-intensity physical activity, engagement in strength exercises (from 23.7% to 48.2%), frequency of fruit consumed as well as fat avoidance and fibre intake scores, in addition to a 0.5 kg mean reduction in weight post program, whereas no apparent changes were observed in the control group. Mixed regression results further confirmed statistically significant improvements in weight loss (p < 0.05), engagement in strength exercises (p < 0.001) and fruit intake (p = 0.012) by the intervention participants at post-test relative to their controls. Conclusions Retirement offers a time to reassess lifestyle, and adopt positive health enhancing physical activity and dietary behaviours. This intervention was successful in improving weight, engagement in strength exercises, increasing levels of moderate-intensity physical activity and consumption of fruit among retirement village residents. Further investigation is needed on how to better engage retirement village managers in such programs. Trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12612001168842) registered November 2, 2012

Revealing Historic Invasion Patterns and Potential Invasion Sites for Two Non-Native Plant Species

The historical spatio-temporal distribution of invasive species is rarely documented, hampering efforts to understand invasion dynamics, especially at regional scales. Reconstructing historical invasions through use of herbarium records combined with spatial trend analysis and modeling can elucidate spreading patterns and identify susceptible habitats before invasion occurs. Two perennial species were chosen to contrast historic and potential phytogeographies: Japanese knotweed (Polygonum cuspidatum), introduced intentionally across the US; and mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris), introduced largely accidentally to coastal areas. Spatial analysis revealed that early in the invasion, both species have a stochastic distribution across the contiguous US, but east of the 90th meridian, which approximates the Mississippi River, quickly spread to adjacent counties in subsequent decades. In contrast, in locations west of the 90th meridian, many populations never spread outside the founding county, probably a result of encountering unfavorable environmental conditions. Regression analysis using variables categorized as environmental or anthropogenic accounted for 24% (Japanese knotweed) and 30% (mugwort) of the variation in the current distribution of each species. Results show very few counties with high habitat suitability (≥80%) remain un-invaded (5 for Japanese knotweed and 6 for mugwort), suggesting these perennials are reaching the limits of large-scale expansion. Despite differences in initial introduction loci and pathways, Japanese knotweed and mugwort demonstrate similar historic patterns of spread and show declining rates of regional expansion. Invasion mitigation efforts should be concentrated on areas identified as highly susceptible that border invaded regions, as both species demonstrate secondary expansion from introduction loci

Design, analysis, and presentation of crossover trials

OBJECTIVE: Although crossover trials enjoy wide use, standards for analysis and reporting have not been established. We reviewed methodological aspects and quality of reporting in a representative sample of published crossover trials. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE for December 2000 and identified all randomized crossover trials. We abstracted data independently, in duplicate, on 14 design criteria, 13 analysis criteria, and 14 criteria assessing the data presentation. RESULTS: We identified 526 randomized controlled trials, of which 116 were crossover trials. Trials were drug efficacy (48%), pharmacokinetic (28%), and nonpharmacologic (30%). The median sample size was 15 (interquartile range 8-38). Most (72%) trials used 2 treatments and had 2 periods (64%). Few trials reported allocation concealment (17%) or sequence generation (7%). Only 20% of trials reported a sample size calculation and only 31% of these considered pairing of data in the calculation. Carry-over issues were addressed in 29% of trial's methods. Most trials reported and defended a washout period (70%). Almost all trials (93%) tested for treatment effects using paired data and also presented details on by-group results (95%). Only 29% presented CIs or SE so that data could be entered into a meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: Reports of crossover trials frequently omit important methodological issues in design, analysis, and presentation. Guidelines for the conduct and reporting of crossover trials might improve the conduct and reporting of studies using this important trial design